Alasdair Munro

@apsmunro.bsky.social

NIHR Academic Clinical Lecturer in Paediatric Immunology and Infectious Diseases University of Southampton and Southampton Children’s Hospital UK alasdairmunro.substack.com

Does the (live) shingles vaccine protect against dementia? Fergus Hamilton and colleagues provide important evidence in a new preprint using hospital data from the whole of England in a regression discontinuity design from which we *don't* show evidence of a meaningful protective effect /cont

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Great post @apsmunro.bsky.social! Doing more is such a natural reaction. But even 'benign' interventions may likely be harmful when tested properly. I'm yet to know of a trial for sepsis where adding antibiotics has been beneficial (outside of TB where we do it to prevent emergence of resistance).

Alasdair Munro@apsmunro.bsky.social · 2mo ago

My new post looks at two antimicrobials which have been routinely used and even recommended in guidelines despite a lack of RCT evidence In the last few weeks they’ve both been shown to have no benefit, and worse, high probability of harm - killing patients A lesson we keep failing to learn

OMG "This is a firm reminder that “we must do more for the sickest” is a human reflex, not an evidence base. The discipline of waiting for a trial, rather than acting on what feels right, is the thing that actually protects patients." "More to follow when both papers are out in full."

2/ Emphasising the role of randomisation. Randomisation is entirely compatible with the use of routinely collected data. Importantly, the source of the data does not compensate for weaknesses in study design, and "real-world evidence" is no substitute for rigorous methodology...

"There have been reports of family members retrieving bodies from quarantine." -- all very normal, sadly. Same happened in 2014. The locals do a lot to make it worse, unfortunately :( Fingers crossed on getting it stopped ASAP & vaccine candidates