If enacted, would overturn 250 years of American commitment to freedom of navigation.

Aaron Rupar@atrupar.com · 2d ago

Trump on Strait of Hormuz tolls: "If anybody is gonna charge, we'll charge. We have total control." (Trump moments ago said he's negotiating with Iran to reopen the strait ... )

The ends-ways-means paradigm of pragmatic realism is dead. Long live the perimeter-area-volume paradigm of geometric realism.

“completely misrepresented the facts”? NYT could have done better on the longer-term demands for new icebreakers, fine. But the big story with ASCs is the doubling of USCG requirements! And through this, we learn that ”the number 11 came directly from the president”. The focus on Trump is merited!

Olga Nesterova@onestpress.onestnetwork.com · 4d ago

I read the whole thing and I’m quite stunned how NYT focused on Trump, rumors, his desires and completely misrepresented the facts. So let’s do a factcheck, shall we? 🧵 Biden-Harris admin created ICE (Icebreaker Collaboration Effort) Pact partnership in July 2024 alongside Canada and Finland.

and another thing: im not stalemated. please dont put in the paper that I got stalemated

Dr. Jonathan Schroden@jjschroden.bsky.social · 6d ago

I’m told everything is going according to plan, nothing to see here, this is “pragmatic realism” in action 🙄

This is definitely cope, but the depletion of stocks isn’t even the biggest problem. The problem is that fires, or strike warfare if you will, is inherently indecisive.

Aron Lund@aronlund.bsky.social · last wk.

Michaels O’Hanlon and Poznansky, of @brookings.edu, do not see the depletion of U.S. missile stocks as a problem vis-à-vis China. www.brookings.edu/articles/why...

They point out that the U.S. has lots of offensive Pacific-relevant munitions, but don’t reckon with the combination of defensive shortfalls + a leadership that is clearly cost sensitive. Plus, munitions aren’t destiny, but they were the clearest key variable that the U.S. controls!

Marcel Dirsus@marceldirsus.com · last wk.

None of us know what's going on inside Xi Jinping's head, so this might well be the way he looks at the Iran War. But he could also conclude that the United States is unlikely to risk war with China because it is hugely vulnerable to casualties and rising gas prices. Plus, it doesn't have the ammo

US undersecretary of defence Colby announces that the US forces’ “Europe Posture Review” has begun. This is about creating a “NATO 3.0”, aka NATO with less US.

I feel a lot people reading it get the wrong idea. Yes they did, it's cheap and efficient. But Ukraine uses 5k interceptors, you might say. They do, among other things. Ukraine has 60-70 000 men in AD duty. They use everything including F-15 and Patriots and IRIS-T and yes a lot of cheap drones 1/2

MAKS 26 👀🇺🇦@maks23.bsky.social · last wk.

🇷🇴 Romania spent €1.5 million in 3 days to shoot down 3 Russian drones, — “Digi24”

Wonderful profile of determination in this group of Kyrgyz girls www.nytimes.com/2026/07/24/w...

In Kyrgyzstan, Girls Compete at Kok-Boru, a Game Like Polo

Here’s what happened when some teenage girls dared to compete in the dangerous sport of “kok-boru.”

nytimes.com

Seems like an apt time to re-up my review of Bridge Colby’s ”Strategy of Denial” and its extraordinarily flat understanding of both U.S. adversaries and allies foreignpolicy.com/2022/07/21/c...

China’s Strategy Needs Study, Not Assumptions

Elbridge Colby’s influential take on combating Beijing doesn’t add up.

foreignpolicy.com

Dr. Jonathan Schroden@jjschroden.bsky.social · 2w ago

Over the years, I’ve observed that while the vast majority of US leaders struggle to understand our adversaries’ use of asymmetric strategies/warfare, realists are the worst at this The idea that a low-power state can’t just be overwhelmed by structural power & military might is anathema to them

“The package includes 218 designations - 170 entities ​and 48 individuals - making it the bloc's largest sanctions round in four years.” Carve outs for Greek LNG carriers, but EU states can now seize and sell Russian shadow fleet cargo. www.reuters.com/world/china/...

What's in the EU's 21st package of sanctions against Russia

The European Union adopted on Thursday its 21st package of sanctions against Russia over its war in Ukraine. The new measures target banks, cryptocurrency networks, oil traders, the shadow fleet and R...

reuters.com

You'll find me quoted in this one👇 “What are we trying to do to Iran? We're trying to impose pain. What is Iran trying to do to us? They're trying to impose costs. Those are two different things.” taskandpurpose.com/news/militar...

The US is in another asymmetric war in the Middle East

The U.S. military is trying to beat Iran into submission by waging a conventional war. But the Iranians have a different strategy.

taskandpurpose.com

Over the years, I’ve observed that while the vast majority of US leaders struggle to understand our adversaries’ use of asymmetric strategies/warfare, realists are the worst at this The idea that a low-power state can’t just be overwhelmed by structural power & military might is anathema to them

Dr. Jonathan Schroden@jjschroden.bsky.social · 2w ago

In case you were concerned that US foreign policy, national strategy, alliances, and the war in Iran were not going well, Bridge is here to tell you everything’s actually going GREAT👇 www.nytimes.com/2026/07/23/o...

The Tl;dr here is “not really”. www.ft.com/content/1cbe... Military briefing: can the US reopen the Strait of Hormuz by force?

Military briefing: can the US reopen the Strait of Hormuz by force?

Renewed air campaign has yet to reassure shipowners the waterway can be made safe from Iranian attacks

ft.com

Larry laid his mouse in front of the press to be photographed. Lest you ask, this is a real photograph via the Press Association.

By using lethal means to stop narco vessels in SOUTHCOM, the U.S. has completely ruined its ability to hold the high ground when Iran does the same in Hormuz. We view these artificial theaters as separate when they’re not. There’s no plan, let alone a strategy.

The language about Turkey and F-35 is often muddled. Precision is important: 1) a Turkey was a tier 3 partner in the JSF consortium, meaning it had $12 billion in contracts for part production and could sell weapons that were built for integration (SOM-J). It paid $125 million for this & then

Good take on the UK DIP! The hybrid fleet vision isn’t crazy, but it’s a massive, high-risk gamble - the RN emerges with either a dreadnought-like revolution or just the subs...

Dr Emma Salisbury@salisbot.bsky.social · last mo.

My take on the top notes of the Defence Investment Plan and, in particular, the Hybrid Navy. BLUF: it all sounds pretty great but there isn't enough money, the timeline is too long, and we still aren't having the hard conversations. www.fpri.org/article/2026...

I am sure the French would be insulted by this, but “Forward Deterrence” really sounds A LOT like U.S. Strategic Air Command used overseas military bases in the 1950s and early 1960s, when it still operated a lot of medium bombers like the B-47 that had a rather limited combat radius. 🧵 1/4

It's Out! To rebuild trust in maritime policy, the US must ratify the Law of the Sea: thehill.com/opinion/nati...

To rebuild trust in maritime policy, the US must ratify the Law of the Sea

If we fail to take this clear and concrete action to restore trust in maritime safety and security, soon there will be no one willing to pull us from the sea.

thehill.com

Andrew D Thaler@drandrewthaler.bsky.social · 2mo ago

I have an OpEd coming out Monday that is simultaneously the wonkiest thing I have ever written and the most personal story I haven't told publicly. But it matters to the larger point. This one took me a long time to write. Almost a year, really.

There is a lot we don’t know about the MOU US and Iran apparently plan to sign later this week, but a few things stand out based on reports we are seeing: 1/4

Endlich. Aber wann wird Deutschland handeln? blog.prif.org/en/tag/sanct...

DER SPIEGEL@spiegel.de · 2mo ago

Mit Schiffen der sogenannten Schattenflotte versucht Russland, die wegen des Ukrainekriegs verhängten Sanktionen zu umgehen. Nun haben britische Streitkräfte einen Öltanker gestoppt.

I think I’m in the annoy everyone camp. Yes, defence spending needs to rise faster than the proposed timeline suggests but the vision set-out in the Defence Review is unrealistic and avoids hard choices. Plus defence procurement is still a mess and the MOD is often a financial blackhole.

This strikes me as the most important point: Europeans do not only need to rethink how to *organise* NATO without the US but also how NATO without the US can *fight*.

Das Problem bei FCAS ist speziell die Firma Dassault, mit anderen französischen Firmen geht es gut. FCAS ist nicht gleichbedeutend mit „europäischer Verteidigung“, es gibt viele andere Projekte in europäischen Kooperationen und wird viele andere gute Projekte geben.

"In the code of America’s greatest generals, hatred of war has been as foundational as grim awareness of the necessity to prepare for it." www.economist.com/united-state...

Donald Trump says Pete Hegseth loves war. That should disqualify him

How did standards for military leaders fall so low?

economist.com

An thoughtful and targeted plan for balancing short and medium term defense imperatives in Europe from @rafaelloss.bsky.social, @jpuglierin.bsky.social and @mprochwicz.bsky.social

ECFR@ecfr.eu · 2mo ago

The Russian threat is not going away any time soon. To defend themselves without America’s help, Europeans need to pursue a new, distinctly European model of defence and deterrence, write @rafaelloss.bsky.social, @mprochwicz.bsky.social, and @jpuglierin.bsky.social 👇 ecfr.eu/publication/...

Good to see France keeping up its action against the shadow fleet. The Tagor’s captain faces a year in jail and 150,000€ fine, but I’m most curious what France will do with this reportedly empty tanker. Probably a fine and release, as they did with GRINCH www.france24.com/fr/france/20...

Flotte fantôme russe : mise en garde à vue du commandant du pétrolier arraisonné par la France

Le commandant du Tagor, le pétrolier soupçonné de faire partie de la flotte fantôme russe, arraisonné en Atlantique par la Marine française, a été placé en garde à vue mardi, a annoncé le parquet de…

france24.com

According to a report by the German “Tagesschau” television news service, Russia is working on covertly emplacing intercontinental ballistic missiles on the seabed. How to make sense of this? A few insights from SNIE 11-12-68, published in August 1968 by the Central Intelligence Agency. 🧵

Florian Flade@florianflade.bsky.social · 3mo ago

🌊 🚀💥 Project „Skythen/Skif“: According to #NATO military intelligence sources #Russia is working on ways to deploy and hide nuclear-capable missiles on the seabed. Our report ⬇️ www.tagesschau.de/investigativ... #military #Defense #security