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Erin Dumbacher

@dumbacher.bsky.social

International security & technology | Views are just mine and are often about defense tech, nuclear weapons, space policy, NATO, and good design.

41 Posts156 Follower349 Folgt
Stephen Schwartz@atomicanalyst.bsky.social · 3d ago

At this instant in 1945 (8:15 AM August 6, local time), Little Boy—a 15-kiloton, uranium-fueled atomic bomb—destroyed Hiroshima, killing (per official US military estimates) ~70,000 men, women, and children, incl. 12 American POWs. Independent estimates later maintained ~140,000 people were killed.

A color photograph of a damaged Iras wristwatch with a leather band on display in the Hiroshima Peace Memorial Museum, its hands frozen at 8:15 AM.A photograph of a shadow of a person living in Hiroshima on August 6, 1945, who was killed as they climbed the steps of the Sumitomo Bank building while using a cane, leaving behind only their shadow imprinted on the steps (because their body and cane momentarily blocked the light from the intense thermal flash, burning away everything on the steps that was not in shadow).A color photograph of a damaged and partially melted child’s tricycle on display in the Hiroshima Peace Memorial Museum. On the morning of August 6, 1945, Shinichi Tetsutani, who was one month shy of turning four years old, was riding this tricycle, playing with his best friend, a girl named Kimi, 1,500 meters away from where the Little Boy atomic bomb exploded overhead. When found in the wreckage of his house, he was still grasping the red handlebar grip from his tricycle. Severely injured and burned all over his body, calling out, “Water, I want water,” he died that night. Shinichi’s father buried him in the backyard with his favorite toy, and his best friend Kimi, so he could ride it and play even after death. Forty years later, in 1985, Shinichi’s father, Nobuo, decided to rebury his son in the family’s gravesite. Unearthing the backyard grave with Kimi’s mother, Nobuo rediscovered the tricycle and donated it to the museum.
Erin Dumbacher@dumbacher.bsky.social · 3mo ago

Nuclear talks: Diplomats have gathered in New York to review the future of the global nonproliferation regime, while Washington and Tehran develop terms for potential future meetings. 🔦 Yet there are three lessons for nuclear security we can already see.

Jeffrey Lewis@armscontrolwonk.bsky.social · 5mo ago

I keep seeing this framing like Bremmer's. It is wrong. Instead: 1. Iran was developing an ICBM when Khamenei imposed a 2,000-km range limit. 3. The programs shifted to space launch. 4. Khamenei lifted the restriction in October 2025 after the June attacks. 5. Now he's dead, and here we are.

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Michael C. Horowitz@mchorowitz.bsky.social · 7mo ago

Want to understand more about the eye popping 1.5T Trump defense budget news? Check out me, @dumbacher.bsky.social, & @laurenakahn.bsky.social for @cfr.org! www.cfr.org/expert-brief... #defense #natsec

Trump’s $1.5 Trillion Defense Budget Should Not Come as a Surprise

In the context of global threats to the United States, a long overdue defense modernization bill, and the ambitions of Trump’s signature defense priorities, perhaps the budget request should have bee…

cfr.org

Perry World House@perryworldhouse.bsky.social · 9mo ago

"The Pentagon’s acquisition system is not built to meet a moment where rapid technological change in areas like AI is shifting the capabilities the U.S. should acquire," write @mchorowitz.bsky.social, @laurenakahn.bsky.social, and @dumbacher.bsky.social for @cfr.org: www.cfr.org/expert-brief...

Time to Accept Risk in Defense Acquisitions

U.S. Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth launched enterprising Pentagon reforms that prioritize speed in acquiring new military capabilities, but this ambitious proposal is at risk of running into the …

cfr.org

Erin Dumbacher@dumbacher.bsky.social · 9mo ago

If the president intends to signal strength [there are] solutions without the risk of radiological consequences, without offering an advantage to China’s expanding nuclear program, and without the risk of a new global race to test nuclear weapons. www.cfr.org/expert-brief...

Will Trump’s Nuclear Testing Order Prompt a Global Race?

President Donald Trump’s announcement of resuming nuclear testing has stirred questions about the type, such as live testing of warheads, and whether the United States has entered a new era of nuclea…

cfr.org

Kingston Reif@kingstonareif.bsky.social · 9mo ago

-Putin has been touting tests of Skyfall and Poseidon this week. (The tests were of nuke-powered, nuke delivery systems-not live warhead detonations) -The Dept of War isnt responsible for nuke explosive testing. Thats DoEs job. -The "renovation of existing weapons" continues.

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Alex Luck@alxluck.bsky.social · 11mo ago

"...(Type 26) is sailing in company with two uncrewed escorts who are using AI to work in tandem with the warship. (...) It is my aim to have the first of our uncrewed escort ships sailing alongside our Royal Navy warships within the next two years.”"

Kori Schake@kschake.bsky.social · 11mo ago

Polish and Dutch fighters, directed by Italian early warning aircraft, German air defenses on alert. Dutch PM: “I’m glad that Dutch F35 fighter jets were able to provide support. The Netherlands stands shoulder to shoulder with our NATO ally Poland.” Common defense working as designed.

Erin Dumbacher@dumbacher.bsky.social · last yr.

This is absolutely right. But it's not inevitable that AI will impact nuclear weapons decisions; a hundred humans would need to hand decisions over to machines. We have the power and agency to stop it. (1/3)

Matthew Gault@mjgault.bsky.social · last yr.

This issue is bigger than just "robots launch nukes." Every launch requires a thousand human decisions. Humans have saved us from nuclear disaster before. What happens as those decision makers are replaced by AIs?

Petrov didn’t know the machine was wrong. He guessed based on his experiences. His radar told him that the US had launched five missiles, but he knew an American attack would be all or nothing. Five was a small number. The computers were also new and had worked faster than he’d seen them perform before. He made a judgement call. “Can we expect humans to be able to do that routinely? Is that a fair expectation?” Lin says. “The point is that you have to go outside your training data. You must go outside your training data to be able to say: ‘No, my training data is telling me something wrong.’ By definition, [AI] can’t do that.”
Matthew Gault@mjgault.bsky.social · last yr.

This issue is bigger than just "robots launch nukes." Every launch requires a thousand human decisions. Humans have saved us from nuclear disaster before. What happens as those decision makers are replaced by AIs?

Petrov didn’t know the machine was wrong. He guessed based on his experiences. His radar told him that the US had launched five missiles, but he knew an American attack would be all or nothing. Five was a small number. The computers were also new and had worked faster than he’d seen them perform before. He made a judgement call. “Can we expect humans to be able to do that routinely? Is that a fair expectation?” Lin says. “The point is that you have to go outside your training data. You must go outside your training data to be able to say: ‘No, my training data is telling me something wrong.’ By definition, [AI] can’t do that.”
Erin Dumbacher@dumbacher.bsky.social · last yr.

A good roundup on the context. www.twz.com/sea/question...

Questions Swirl Around Status Of Russian Nuclear Submarine Base After Historic Earthquake

The epicenter of a huge quake that sent tsunami waves out across the Pacific is just 75 miles from a cluster of strategic Russian naval facilities.

twz.com

Erin Dumbacher@dumbacher.bsky.social · last yr.

I'm optimistic US IC and commercial satellite firms are finding out what they can. Let's see what the images show and hope for no loss of life. (4/4)