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Robin Schimmelpfennig

@schimmelpfennig.bsky.social

PhD@heclausanne (w/ EffersonCharles) /Affl. @LSE_PBS w/ @mmuthukrishna & Google Research. UN Fellow for Behavioral Science #behavior #culture #organizations #AI Webite: robinschimmelpfennig.com

30 Posts699 Follower288 Folgt
Elena Miu@elenamiu.bsky.social · 8mo ago

"The relationship between childhood exploration and population-level innovation in cultural evolution" with @ndersen.bsky.social @sheinalew.bsky.social @felixthehauskat.bsky.social out in Proc B royalsocietypublishing.org/rspb/article...

The relationship between childhood exploration and population-level innovation in cultural evolution

Abstract. The societal effects of children’s learning in cultural evolution have been underexplored. Here, we investigate using agent-based models how a pr

royalsocietypublishing.org

Paul Smaldino@psmaldino.bsky.social · 10mo ago

Super proud of this paper with @apvelilla.bsky.social and @babeheim.bsky.social, now out in Psych Review. Non-paywalled version (preprint) here: osf.io/preprints/so...

Santa Fe Institute @sfiscience.bsky.social · 10mo ago

How likely are you to invest in a new business? Ask your partner to marry you? Move to a new country? A new model by SFI External Professor Paul Smaldino and colleagues explains how wealth, experience, and environment shape our risk tolerance — and how those effects persist across generations.

Seema Jayachandran@seema.bsky.social · 12mo ago

We just spent 6 months to add 1 figure to this paper. Some people said, "Couples aren't prioritizing men's careers. Men just have better earnings opportunities when moving." Earnings effects of moves for couples on the left, singles on the right. Negligible gap between single men and women.

Event study coefficients that show that men's earnings rise more than women's among couples following a cross-commuting zone move (left panels). The pattern is muted or reverses among single men and single women (right panels).
Seema Jayachandran@seema.bsky.social · 2y ago

Our new paper shows that men benefit from couples' long-distance joint moves more than women do, in both Germany and Sweden. Is this just b/c men are usually the main breadwinner? No, it's hard to explain the patterns we see w/o a gender norm prioritizing men's careers. www.nber.org/papers/w32970

Moving to Opportunity, Together Many couples face a trade-off between advancing one spouse’s career or the other’s. We study this trade-off using administrative data from Germany and Sweden. We first conduct an event-study analysis of couples moving across commuting zones and find that relocation increases men’s earnings more than women’s, with strikingly similar patterns in Germany and Sweden. Using a sample of mass layoff events, we then find that couples in both countries are more likely to relocate in response to the man being laid off compared to the woman. We investigate whether these gendered patterns reflect men’s higher potential earnings or a gender norm that prioritizes men’s career advancement. We provide suggestive evidence of a gender norm using variation in norms within Germany. We then develop and estimate a model of household decision-making in which households can place more weight on the income earned by the man compared to the woman.
Rebecca Sear@rebeccasear.bsky.social · 12mo ago

If one man marries two women, another man must go unmarried, right? No. Demography matters. If sex ratios are skewed towards women, then polygyny can exist alongside universal marriage for men (who want to marry women). If only more people understood demography 😊

Hampton Gaddy@hggaddy.bsky.social · 12mo ago

🚨 The Economist has been telling you for years that polygamy causes civil war by locking men out of marriage. A new article with @rebeccasear.bsky.social and @anthrolog.bsky.social explains that the demography of marriage markets doesn't actually work that way. 🧵 www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/...

Björn Lindström@bjornlindstrom.bsky.social · last yr.

Thrilled that our paper on the mechanisms underlying social learning strategies is out! First big paper from my @erc.europa.eu & @kawresearch.bsky.social funded group. More to come! I'm currently looking to recruit two post docs, get in touch if you find this line of research interesting.

Nature Human Behaviour@nathumbehav.nature.com · last yr.

Through experiments and simulations, this study shows how individuals learn to learn from others, dynamically shaping the processes involved in cultural evolution. @davidschultner.bsky.social @bjornlindstrom.bsky.social @lucasmolleman.bsky.social www.nature.com/articles/s41...

Björn Lindström@bjornlindstrom.bsky.social · last yr.

💥New postdoc position! 💥 Join us to explore how people learn from each other—and how that drives cultural evolution. Run experiments, build computational models & collaborate across Europe w. @lucasmolleman.bsky.social 📍 Stockholm More info: shorturl.at/CY4wk

Postdoctoral Researcher in psychology/cognitive science with focus on social learning and cultural evolution

Do you want to contribute to top quality medical research? The Mechanisms of Social Behavior lab at the Karolinska Institutet (PI: Björn Lindström) in Stockholm, Sweden is seeking a highly qualified

shorturl.at

Zeke Hausfather@zekehausfather.com · last yr.

Our new paper updating key metrics in the IPCC is now out, and the news is grim: ⬆️ Human induced warming now at 1.36C ⬆️ Rate of warming now 0.27C / decade ⬆️ Sharp increase in Earth's energy imbalance ⬇️ Remaining 1.5C carbon budget only 130 GtCO2 essd.copernicus.org/...

Indicators of Global Climate Change 2024: annual update of key indicators of the state of the climate system and human influence

Abstract. In a rapidly changing climate, evidence-based decision-making benefits from up-to-date and timely information. Here we compile monitoring datasets (published at https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.15639576; Smith et al., 2025a) to produce updated estimates for key indicators of the state of the climate system: net emissions of greenhouse gases and short-lived climate forcers, greenhouse gas concentrations, radiative forcing, the Earth's energy imbalance, surface temperature changes, warming attributed to human activities, the remaining carbon budget, and estimates of global temperature extremes. This year, we additionally include indicators for sea-level rise and land precipitation change. We follow methods as closely as possible to those used in the IPCC Sixth Assessment Report (AR6) Working Group One report. The indicators show that human activities are increasing the Earth's energy imbalance and driving faster sea-level rise compared to the AR6 assessment. For the 2015–2024 decade average, observed warming relative to 1850–1900 was 1.24 [1.11 to 1.35] °C, of which 1.22 [1.0 to 1.5] °C was human-induced. The 2024-observed best estimate of global surface temperature (1.52 °C) is well above the best estimate of human-caused warming (1.36 °C). However, the 2024 observed warming can still be regarded as a typical year, considering the human-induced warming level and the state of internal variability associated with the phase of El Niño and Atlantic variability. Human-induced warming has been increasing at a rate that is unprecedented in the instrumental record, reaching 0.27 [0.2–0.4] °C per decade over 2015–2024. This high rate of warming is caused by a combination of greenhouse gas emissions being at an all-time high of 53.6±5.2 Gt CO2e yr−1 over the last decade (2014–2023), as well as reductions in the strength of aerosol cooling. Despite this, there is evidence that the rate of increase in CO2 emissions over the last decade has slowed compared to the 2000s, and depending on societal choices, a continued series of these annual updates over the critical 2020s decade could track decreases or increases in the rate of the climatic changes presented here.

essd.copernicus.org

Carl T. Bergstrom@carlbergstrom.com · last yr.

Ok, time for a short thread about this paper. My sense over the past six months or so is that chain-of-thought prompting as used in e.g. ChatGPT o.3 improves substantially upon previous systems such as ChatGPT 4.o, at least for certain tasks. But how revolutionary is it?

Carl T. Bergstrom@carlbergstrom.com · last yr.

If I have time I'll put together a more detailed thread tomorrow, but for now, I think this new paper about limitations of Chain-of-Thought models could be quite important. Worth a look if you're interested in these sorts of things. ml-site.cdn-apple.com/papers/the-i...

The Illusion of Thinking: Understanding the Strengths and Limitations of Reasoning Models via the Lens of Problem Complexity Parshin Shojaee∗† Iman Mirzadeh∗ Keivan Alizadeh Maxwell Horton Samy Bengio Mehrdad Farajtabar Apple Abstract Recent generations of frontier language models have introduced Large Reasoning Models (LRMs) that generate detailed thinking processes before providing answers. While these models demonstrate improved performance on reasoning benchmarks, their fundamental capabilities, scal- ing properties, and limitations remain insufficiently understood. Current evaluations primarily fo- cus on established mathematical and coding benchmarks, emphasizing final answer accuracy. How- ever, this evaluation paradigm often suffers from data contamination and does not provide insights into the reasoning traces’ structure and quality. In this work, we systematically investigate these gaps with the help of controllable puzzle environments that allow precise manipulation of composi- tional complexity while maintaining consistent logical structures. This setup enables the analysis of not only final answers but also the internal reasoning traces, offering insights into how LRMs “think”. Through extensive experimentation across diverse puzzles, we show that frontier LRMs face a complete accuracy collapse beyond certain complexities. Moreover, they exhibit a counter- intuitive scaling limit: their reasoning effort increases with problem complexity up to a point, then declines despite having an adequate token budget. By comparing LRMs with their standard LLM counterparts under equivalent inference compute, we identify three performance regimes: (1) low- complexity tasks where standard models surprisingly outperform LRMs, (2) medium-complexity tasks where additional thinking in LRMs demonstrates advantage, and (3) high-complexity tasks where both models experience complete collapse. We found that LRMs have limitations in exact computation: they fail to use explicit …
Liz Neeley@lizneeley.bsky.social · 2y ago

The most achingly beautiful explanation of what science is, from @edyong209.bsky.social: “the idea that much of the world is hidden from us, that we don’t perceive it and don’t understand it, and that it is worth understanding and it is necessary to understand.” www.nytimes.com/2025/02/22/m...

‘The Interview’: Ed Yong Wants to Show You the Hidden Reality of the World

The Pulitzer Prize-winning science writer talks about burnout from covering the pandemic and how bird-watching gave him a new sense of hope.

nytimes.com

Hakeem Jefferson@hakeemjefferson.bsky.social · 2y ago

One of the real problems is that too many people conveniently believe the opposite of diversity is merit, and the opposite of inclusion is high standards. Yeah, that’s just not the case. (See: Pete Hegseth among countless others.)

Patricia Lockwood@thepsychologist.bsky.social · 2y ago

New preprint by the amazing @zhilinsu.bsky.social! The neuroeconomics of social influence and contagion featuring work by @mgarvert.bsky.social @klempert.bsky.social @mjcrockett.bsky.social @psyhongbo.bsky.social and many others! Forthcoming in Neuroeconomics: Core Topics and Current Directions.

Zhi-Lin Su (蘇致霖)@zhilinsu.bsky.social · 2y ago

📢 New Preprint 📢 Delighted to share our preprint of a chapter co-authored with @thepsychologist.bsky.social @sdnl.bsky.social for the forthcoming book 'Neuroeconomics: Core Topics and Current Directions'! The neuroeconomics of social influence and contagion osf.io/preprints/ps...