Eamon Kircher-Allen
@eamonka.bsky.social
Writer and researcher. Editor-in-chief @CenturyIntl. Owner and head teacher at the San Francisco Capoeira Academy.🌁🌉🍃🏔️🌃 🚴🏻🤸
I'm not sure folks have realized just how crazy the second half of 2026 and 2027 will be for global temperatures – on the back of a record-smashing El Niño event. Here is my latest estimate of where both years will end up compared to global temperatures since 1850.
US defeat in Iran isn't just real. It's quantifiable. And it can get a whole lot worse.
The Math Behind The U.S. Defeat in Iran
Missile-interceptor stocks are dwindling after only five months. That Memorandum of Understanding is looking pretty enticing!
forever-wars.com
Incredible story: With the help of AI, U.S. officials created a map that mislabeled every country in Africa. www.reuters.com/world/africa...
US government map of Africa mislabels every country at global conference
A U.S. government map of Africa mislabeled every country during a State Department presentation at a global conference taking place in Brazil this week, causing a stir among attendees who took screen...
reuters.com
Israel keeps moving the ‘yellow line’ deeper into Gaza, forcing more civilians out each time. Palestinian territory has shrunk by more than a quarter since Trump’s pseudo-ceasefire came into effect last year. Nidal al-Mughrabi & Ebrahim Hajjaj, @reuters.com: www.reuters.com/world/middle...
Israel's yellow line, a shifting edge of war pushing Gazans from home
On a road in Gaza City's Zeitoun district, Palestinian resident Assem Dawla loaded mattresses and bags onto a truck as concrete yellow blocks marking the edge of Israel's expanding military zone stoo...
reuters.com
What’s wild is that only a few years ago, “prediction markets” had a whole different name and you used to have to go to Reno or Atlantic City to participate, otherwise it was a crime. Now we can’t even regulate them.
Kyle Cheney@kyledcheney.bsky.social · last wk.JUST IN: Kalshi has won a federal court ruling to block a Minnesota law from taking effect that would have banned prediction markets in the state. storage.courtlistener.com/recap/gov.us...
"After analyzing federal and industry records, including never-before-examined data on vehicle dimensions, we found that the rise of large pickups and S.U.V.s is an important factor." i'm sorry but how the fuck is this correlation just coming to light now?
The Deadly Rise of Giant Trucks and S.U.V.s (Gift Article)
The vehicles on American roads have grown larger — and they are killing thousands more pedestrians, a Times investigation found.
nytimes.com
I've got to say that I'm really disappointed in the recent discourse surrounding the RCP8.5 scenario. The lack of context and understanding is something I expected from the usual suspects, but it's frustrating to see such bad takes from people and outlets who should know better.
The largest federal reparations fund in US history goes not to indigenous tribes or descendants of formerly enslaved people or interned Japanese-Americans — but to J6ers who smeared shit on the walls of the US Capitol and attempted to hang the Vice President.
Justin Baragona@justinbaragona.bsky.social · 3mo agoAnd there it is, folks. www.nytimes.com/live/2026/05...
Trump just stole $1.8B. He’s going to give it to his business, his kids, and people like Flynn, Eastman, Giuliani, and the Oath Keepers. He’s doing this without court approval or Congress. This is a crime, but there’s no one to prosecute it because the DoJ is in on it.
Justin Baragona@justinbaragona.bsky.social · 3mo agoAnd there it is, folks. www.nytimes.com/live/2026/05...
My new @foreignpolicy.com piece on these U.S.-brokered Israel-Lebanon talks as an exercise in humiliation for the United States' would-be Lebanese partners: foreignpolicy.com/2026/05/15/t...
Trump’s Lebanon Negotiations Are Breaking the Country
Rather than acting as a good-faith mediator, Trump is humiliating the Lebanese government.
foreignpolicy.com
Sam Heller | سام هيلر@abujamajem.com · 3mo agoYesterday State Department announces 45-day extension of Lebanon cessation of hostilities, dates for follow-on U.S.-facilitated political and security talks between Lebanon and Israel: www.state.gov/releases/off... Today Israeli military orders new mass evacuations ahead of strikes:
America started a war it couldn’t win. How does the world look without a dominant superpower? @peterjsalisbury.bsky.social previews our new era of asymmetric finance, trade, and warfare on Order from Ashes @centuryintl.bsky.social
Pete Hegseth told Congress the Iran War has cost $25 billion. Hegseth lied — the US has spent at least $72 billion. My latest for @popular.info: popular.info/p/the-real-c...
Climate change is an affordability issue. Most of us will experience it as an increase in the cost of living paired with a commensurate erosion of its standards.
MIT Center for Energy and Environmental Policy Research@mitceepr.bsky.social · 3mo agoClimate change is no longer a distant threat—it is already imposing substantial and uneven costs on U.S. households. This paper by @kclausing.bsky.social, @knittelmit.bsky.social and @cwolfram.bsky.social seeks to quantify these costs across multiple channels, check it out here: ceepr.link/4cWpkCV
Since Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz on March 2, Western hawks have revived colonial-era schemes to build pipelines from the Gulf to Israel. These fantastical proposals won’t work, and cannot solve the growing energy crisis. New report from CI fellow Zack Cuyler.
America’s war economy helps no one. Short term: ends lives, undermines democracy, makes daily life unaffordable. Long term, even worse: pitches world into recession and dystopia. New Order from Ashes episode from @eamonka.bsky.social and @tcambanis.bsky.social youtube.com/playlist?lis...
The Trump budget once again proposes to eliminate NOAA OAR, which brings you the CO₂ Keeling Curve. In this piece, I argued that the Keeling Curve is a treasure that belongs to humanity as the most poignant indication of our impact on the environment and as a testament to our ability to document it.
Trump’s budget takes aim at gold standard measurement of atmospheric carbon dioxide
OPINION: “President Trump, a renowned climate change denier, has shown repeatedly that he has no use for scientific data that disproves his preconceived assumptions,” David Ho writes.
sfchronicle.com
John Morales@johnmoralestv.bsky.social · 4mo agoTrump regime again tries to shutter all NOAA labs in its 2027 White House budget. open.substack.com/pub/balanced...
Elon Musk had DOGE defund USAID, the largest humanitarian organization in the world, causing HUNDREDS OF THOUSANDS of deaths from starvation and disease - and Trump GLEEFULLY approved it. It’s the single most evil act in US history. Cartoon by Mike Luckovich
The pain that consumers are feeling from the Iran war is real, and likely to get worse. But those short-term costs are only the tip of the economic iceberg, writes CI editor-in-chief @eamonka.bsky.social in a new commentary.
@centuryintl.bsky.social colleague @eamonka.bsky.social lays out how Trump's war on Iran – in addition to being monstrous and wrong – will also incur all kinds of second-order economic costs, making Americans' lives materially worse: tcf.org/content/comm...
The Iran War’s Forever Costs Will Far Exceed the Immediate Pain for Consumers
The most headline-grabbing economic effects of the Iran war are immediate, directly felt in consumers’ daily life: Pump prices are up 35 percent, and the
tcf.org
Got to stretch my econ muscles and explain just how bad the Iran war is for the US economy—and it goes way beyond inflation. New commentary for @centuryintl.bsky.social tcf.org/content/comm...
The Iran War’s Forever Costs Will Far Exceed the Immediate Pain for Consumers
The most headline-grabbing economic effects of the Iran war are immediate, directly felt in consumers’ daily life: Pump prices are up 35 percent, and the
tcf.org
Runaway war spending disfigures every aspect of the economy. Americans will be paying the costs of Trump’s reckless war on Iran for generations. @eamonka.bsky.social for @centuryintl.bsky.social tcf.org/content/comm...
The @cssl.bsky.social is reporting zero snow water equivalent this morning, with just a little snow left around the property. It’s the earliest melt out of the lab’s snowpack since 2015. Median March 30 snow water equivalent is 34 inches. #CAwx
I think often of a New York Times photo of a little Iraqi girl tending to her parakeets in a bombed house, probably from 20 years ago now. I will think of this man and his sweet dog often now too. People just want to love what they love, care for their little beings, and instead we do this to them
Leah McElrath@leahmcelrath.bsky.social · 4mo agoMan with his dog flees from bombs in Tehran. (Photo by Pooria Hatami)
Unless there's a sudden shift in weather conditions, preliminary estimates show that 2026 set another new record low maximum extent for #Arctic sea ice. This follows very closely with last year, which previously set the record. Not good! Download graphic at zacklabe.com/arctic-sea-i...
There are so many ways in which this war can still escalate much further.
Shipwreck@shipwreck75.bsky.social · 5mo agoTrump threatens Iran:
“Bike lanes that greatly reduced crashes on National Mall set for removal” 10/10 hed, no notes. #bikedc
Bike lanes that greatly reduced crashes on National Mall set for removal
After the 15th Street bike lanes were constructed, bicycle injury crashes decreased by 91 percent, according to the District Department of Transportation.
washingtonpost.com
