Dr Matt Winning

@mattywin.bsky.social

🎤 Climate comedian 🌍 Lecturer in Economics of Sustainability @UCL.ac.uk 🌀 Environmental Expert 📚 Author of 'Hot Mess' 📻 Hosted BBC Radio 4's 'Net Zero: A Very British Problem' www.mattwinning.com https://linktr.ee/mattwinning

In a world of policy reversal and active support for fossil fuel burning (the CMIP7 "High" scenario), we could end up well above 3C by 2100, have a ~70% chance of >4C by 2150, and a 30% chance of over 5C.

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I'm just guessing that between options: (a) Exxon have altered their climate sensitivity upwards, Or (b) An employee has got mixed up because he doesn't know the specifics. Then I would guess (b). But I could be wrong.

Has anyone actually checked the Exxon global outlook? As far as I can see all it says is emissions will drop 20% by 2050. There's no specific analysis in there about temp in 2050. I presume it was an employee stating that those levels would lead to 2.5-3C, which we already knew.

Enjoying how the inflation triggered by Trump's war increases the chances of the UK electing a populist climate-denying government that would have supported Trump's war and is fiercely opposed to the best solutions for tackling said inflation.

Chatting just now with local Kent winegrower at farmer's market. This year's grapes are "smaller than peas" - not going to bother to harvest. What did he think of politicians saying 'hey enjoy your English sparkling wine thanks to climate change'? "Fucking morons."

Globally, the hottest August in observed history is just about to end. In Western Europe, the summer of 2026 (June, July, August) has been the warmest as well. Compared to this year, 1976 (the famous UK summer) and 2003 (the hottest EU summer so far) look like amateurs in terms of heat (1/2)

Global map of temperature departures with most continental regions as well as the tropical Pacific in red (hot). Parts of Antarctica in blue (cold)

Source: http://www.karstenhaustein.com/climateMap of Europe with blue and cold patches for cold and hot temperature departures from the long-term climate average (1961-1990). France and the UK in red. All else rather blue.Map of Europe with blue and cold patches for cold and hot temperature departures from the long-term climate average (1961-1990). All of central Europe in red. Parts of the Atlantic in blueMap of Europe with blue and cold patches for cold and hot temperature departures from the long-term climate average (1961-1990). All of central and Southern Europe in red. No blue left anymore.