Dominik Schraff

@dschraff.bsky.social

Political Scientist @ Aalborg University 🇩🇰 EU | Comparative Political Behavior | Inequality | Democratic Trust & Legitimacy EU-NED www.dominikschraff.com

Something bugs me about Italian opinion polls. There's not enough variance: FdI has been at 27-and-a-bit in 12 of the last 13 polls. My suspicion was herding, so I went down a statistical rabbit hole, which involved inventing a new measure of herding (which may have picked up a different issue!). 🧵

A table of Italian polls. Available at https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_Italian_general_election#Party_vote

Happy to see our new paper on mainstream-to-challenger defection in print! w/ @denis-cohen.bsky.social & @aigneranna.bsky.social Check out Denis' summary below! Thanks to @nilssteiner.bsky.social, @conradziller.bsky.social & @ackermannk.bsky.social for organizing this SI! tinyurl.com/5aa9wrmb

First page of the journal article "From the center to the fringes: A comparative test of attitudinal explanations for mainstream-to-challenger defection" by Denis Cohen, Werner Krause, and Anna Aigner, published in Electoral Studies. The page shows the journal head, author affiliations at the University of Mannheim and the University of Potsdam, keywords, a link to the replication dataset, and the full abstract.Dot plot showing net balances of vote switching between mainstream and challenger parties, in percentage points, across 16 west European elections from 1973 to 2025. Each election is a point with a 95% credible interval, ordered left to right from most negative to most positive. Values run from about −6 to +15 points; positive values mean net gains for challengers. German elections are labeled individually and mostly sit between −4 and +4 points. Germany's February 2025 election, highlighted in red, is a clear outlier at nearly +10 points, placing it among the highest in the series alongside the Netherlands 2002, Greece 2012, Denmark 1973, and Italy 1992.
Denis Cohen@denis-cohen.bsky.social · 2w ago

📄 New paper in @electoralstudies.bsky.social: “From the center to the fringes: A comparative test of attitudinal explanations for mainstream-to-challenger defection” 👥 with @krausewe.bsky.social and @aigneranna.bsky.social 🔗 doi.org/10.1016/j.el...

Die Landtagswahlen zeigen, dass die ehemaligen Volksparteien kein programmatisches Angebot mehr haben, das Wähler:innen anspricht. Sind sie nicht mehr im Rennen um das Amt der Ministerpräsident*in, erhalten sie kaum noch Stimmen. Übrig sind dann nur noch wenige eher ältere Stammwähler:innen.

Gern noch mal in einfachen Worten für Union und FDP: Wenn man fünf Jahre lang so tut, als habe die AfD im Grunde Recht (“Migration=größtes Problem”, “Grüne=sozialistische Deutschlandhasser”), dann hilft man damit der AfD und schadet sich selbst. Es ist wirklich nicht schwer.

Es gibt Mecklenburg-Vorpommern. Aber es gibt auch Mecklenburg und Vorpommern. Wie wir heute Abend voraussichtlich wieder sehen werden, unterscheiden sich beide Regionen deutlich in ihrem Wahlverhalten. Woher kommen diese Unterschiede? Ein Thread mit Daten aus dem Kaiserreich bis heute. 🧵

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When we talk about the costs that LLMs impose on society we should not forget the fact that nothing works anymore because everyone is so scared of getting their shit scraped. I can't even use google scholar from my university or starlink because they send too much traffic.

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There are many factors, of course, but a big part in my opinion is the sense among voters that elections have gotten somewhat meaningless. You vote and vote and vote, but you won't ever actually get what you want because it has become almost impossible to form coherent coalitions

Steffen Mau@steffenmau.bsky.social · last mo.

The landslide victory for a far-right party marks a profound turning point. The traditional party system is no longer able to bind people to it or absorb the prevailing public mood. The AfD is winning support with ethnonationalist and chauvinistic positions that exclude large sections of society.

A few things (international) commentatoes should remember. Only 2 million people live in Sachsen-Anhalt. Half of Berlin, a tenth of NRW. Around 400k will vote AfD. Even with this strong result, 80% of people living in S-A will not have voted for the AfD. In a state that is a far-right stronghold.

Germany: Saxony-Anhalt regional elections 🇩🇪 🇪🇺 Notable facts • Lowest turnout of any German regional election: 44.4% (2006) • First German state government to rely on a LINKE (then PDS) majority (1994) • Far-right DVU's best-ever result in any German regional election: 12.9% (1998) #Sachsen-Anhalt

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New working paper. We propose a theory of dynamic identity-based linkages between voters and parties. We base this theory on models of expressive voting where voting signifies joining a community of social groups of voters. People have a sense of which parties are associated with which groups.

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Iceland votes 53-47 to reject re-starting negotiations to join EU. Result driven by desire to maintain control over fishing, which makes up 40% of Iceland’s exports. Reflected in geographic results. Capital Reykjavik voted around 55-45 in favour, while rest of country clearly voted against.

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Christian Christensen@chrchristensen.bsky.social · last mo.

This has probably fallen under news radar for many but referendum in Iceland today on whether or not country should re-start negotiations to join the EU (process that ended over a decade ago). Independence and right to control own fishing waters key issues for Iceland. www.bbc.com/news/article...

That many of our colleagues still post on X is one thing (mostly disappointing). But that our universities, professional associations, journals etc. still use a platform whose purpose it is to destroy the very basis of what science is and needs is really beyond my comprehension. Simply a disgrace.

Will Jennings📉🗳️@drjennings.bsky.social · 2mo ago

I wrote this for @theobserveruk.bsky.social last October. The argument is even stronger today. It's also extremely easy now to tell which commentators have remained signed up to Musk's echo chamber.