Tessera

John Oxley@joxley.jmoxley.co.uk · 3w ago

@joxley.jmoxley.co.uk makes the key point. Reform at the fourth party in the state is very different from Reform as the second party. Their base is not big enough to deliver that and the Conservatives need to see off Reform.

It does harm them - just doesn't eradicate them. They are polling worse than Tories did in 2024, trending downwards, and NF's popularity has sunk further. It might not alienate their base - but it does push down their ceiling.

Tim Bale @timbale.bsky.social · 3w ago

The last few words of this gobbet seem particularly apposite in the wake of @channel4news.bsky.social's mega-scoop. 😆 (PS If you want to read the whole thing, it's here: doi.org/10.1080/0140...)

Tim Bale @timbale.bsky.social · 3w ago

As Nigel Farage and Reform begin their annual conference in Birmingham, @wepsocial.bsky.social has, with accidental but exquisite timing, today published our article (open access) on "Personality, populism and party: support for ‘dark triad’ leaders in the UK". Do share! Meanwhile, here's a taster:

Firstly, the members of both Britain’s populist radical right party, Reform UK, and its traditionally ‘mainstream’ Conservative Party are significantly more likely to possess the dark triad traits of narcissism, Machiavellianism and psychopathy than the members of the Green Party, Labour and the Liberal Democrats. Secondly, the more British party members themselves possess those traits, the more they prefer leaders who share those traits. Thirdly, and logically, Reform and Conservative Party members are, indeed, more likely to prefer those ‘dark leaders’. It is, then, unsurprising that in recent political history they have gravitated towards leaders such as Boris Johnson and Nigel Farage, who in many ways are the personifications of the kind of leader they say they like − a supremely self-confident and charismatic alpha who mixes charm with a take-no-prisoners/rules-are-for-little people attitude.

In my excitement, forgot the link. Doh! Anyway, here it is: doi.org/10.1080/0140... (free to read)

Even Homer nods. The objection to Orr is that he is a heretic and schismatic. Aquinas had useful ideas about war. The Philosopher Pope Leo XIII gave us Rerum Novarum. The Philosopher Pope JP II rightly warned against the Iraq war and helped bring the Cold War to an end without a shot being fired.

Look forward to reading this. Why on earth a party (Reform) that's supposedly serious about improving and professionalising its real-world policy making capacity would appoint an academic specialising in philosophy and theology, God knows (no pun intended). But perhaps all will be revealed....

Following the debacle in Greater Manchester the Conservatives cannot afford to be humiliated in Holborn & St Pancras - which they would be if they did worse than Reform or - catastrophe - worse that a bin. CCHQ needs to get its act together pronto jegerton.substack.com/p/cchq-needs...

CCHQ needs to fight Holborn & St Pancras

There are real benefits for CCHQ in fighting Holborn & St Pancras as if it were a marginal and potentially catastrophic consequences of being beaten by Reform - or by a bin

jegerton.substack.com

While incumbent mayors from a party in power in Westminster have been reelected no governing party candidate has ever been elected mayor or GLC leader for the first time. If Khan stands down Cleverly must have a chance. QMUL work shows it quite a challenge though.

Incl @mileendinstitute.bsky.social / @qmul.bsky.social London polling.

Sam Freedman@samfr.bsky.social · 3w ago

To add to @samfr.bsky.social arguments here, this link goes to a piece which explicitly does not attack the idea of net zero suggests that UK has made serious policy errors in implementation. www.linkedin.com/pulse/indust...

Industry pays the price

My brother (Mike McWilliams) and I (mainly him) have written a report for the thinktank Civitas investigating how much extra UK manufacturing companies have to pay for their energy. It has been reason...

linkedin.com

New post: With climate change now visible all around us opponents of action are changing tack. Dismantling their new attacks helps identify a hidden structure in political argument that is often used to try and kill popular + necessary policies. (£/free trial) samf.substack.com/p/how-to-kil...

Peter Geoghegan@petergeoghegan.bsky.social · 4w ago

We may not know the details of what the lobbyists pushed for but they are almost all retained by large firms so will have had a clear focus on which changes of policy would boost the CEO's bonus and help pay for his third yacht. Emasculation of the Financial Ombudsman Service is a case in point.

🔴 NEW: Special advisers accepted hospitality from lobbyists and businesses 700 times + since Labour took power Glastonbury tickets, Taylor Swift, UFC fights + more SpAds sit outside the UK lobbying rules. So no one knows what was actually discussed🧵 democracyforsale.substack.com/p/the-700-fr...

Dylan Difford@dylandifford.bsky.social · last mo.

I wonder whether the poor image is at this stage more serious than organisational weakness - you can't fatten a pig on market day and time is already running out to fix the organisation. to form a govt the Conservatives need to win in Somerset jegerton.substack.com/p/somerset-i...

Somerset: is the Conservative organisation fit for purpose?

A detailed analysis of the condition of the Conservative Associations in the Liberal Democrat held constituencies in Somerset and the implications for the Conservatives’ prospects in 2029

jegerton.substack.com

As seen in our recent analysis of whether there is a "Keminaissance", while Kemi's ratings have improved in recent months, there are so many caveats - most importantly, that the Conservatives' image remains very poor, with the Kemi-party gap most apparent among those they need to win back.

jegerton.substack.com/p/somerset-i...

Somerset: is the Conservative organisation fit for purpose?

A detailed analysis of the condition of the Conservative Associations in the Liberal Democrat held constituencies in Somerset and the implications for the Conservatives’ prospects in 2029

jegerton.substack.com

Election Maps UK@electionmaps.uk · 4w ago

This is an astonishing result for the LibDems. In May they were bottom of the poll, with top candidate only 5.1%. They have established themselves as best placed to defeat Reform - look at fall in not just Green but also Cons share of vote when Reform is down. 2027 will be interesting

Throckley, Walbottle & Newburn (Newcastle upon Tyne) Council By-Election Result: ➡️ RFM: 39.0% (-4.8) 🔶 LDM: 29.0% (+24.3) 🌹 LAB: 23.1% (-5.9) 🌍 GRN: 4.5% (-9.2) 🌳 CON: 4.4% (-4.4) Reform UK HOLD. Changes w/ 2026.

Election Maps UK@electionmaps.uk · 4w ago

A ward where Reform were going to beat Conservatives (previous incumbent) but Green won. As elsewhere in Kent LibDems appear to have stood down to help Green A large number of Lab voters backed the Greens. This looks like tactical voting to keep Reform out.

Guston, Kingsdown & St Margaret's-at-Cliffe (Dover) Council By-Election Result: 🌍 GRN: 28.8% (+2.7) ➡️ RFM: 27.5% (New) 🌳 CON: 17.1% (-16.0) 🌹 LAB: 14.6% (-9.2) ◼️ RES: 10.7% (New) 🙋 Ind: 1.3% (New) No LDM (-9.0) or HER (-7.9) as previous. Green GAIN from Conservative. Changes w/ 2023.