Matt Graham
@mattgraham.bsky.social
Political science, survey methods. m-graham.com
How do refugee crises end? In Dec. 2024, Syrian dictator Assad fled to Russia, ending a regime that displaced millions Would Syrians go back now the regime fell? Our paper tests this with original panel data (2019-2026), ~3k Syrian refugees, spanning fall of Assad osf.io/preprints/so... 🧵 1/8
Artful point but not true. 99.999% of Rs have never read the documents. They just hear and believe how comparisons frame them. (Yes I was intentional about the number of 9s and it isn't enough)
Aaron Rupar@atrupar.com · 3d ago"Republicans understand that people aren’t going to read the documents behind their conspiracy theories. The truth is hard to understand and often involves complexity and nuance. They’re able to win the narrative war that way, & it’s having real consequences on people’s lives." — @ninajankowicz.com
🚨NEW PAPER🚨 Covariate adjustment is a valuable tool for analyzing experiments but is vulnerable to abuse. We assess practice in political science and recommend some good practices. Coming soon to the Journal of Experimental Political Science. Preprint: osf.io/cdmsx_v1
🚨NEW PAPER🚨 Covariate adjustment is a valuable tool for analyzing experiments but is vulnerable to abuse. We assess practice in political science and recommend some good practices. Coming soon to the Journal of Experimental Political Science. Preprint: osf.io/cdmsx_v1
A civilian geography professor was fired from West Point for pushing back after department officials barred faculty from teaching that humans contribute to climate change.
West Point professor fired after pushing back on limitations to teaching climate change, lawsuit says
Adam Kalkstein pushed back after department officials barred faculty from teaching that humans contribute to climate change, the lawsuit says.
stripes.com
Oil companies are blasting millions of gallons of toxic waste each year underground — less than a half-mile from Enid, Oklahoma’s water wells. But to protect their city, officials must appeal to the state agency that created the problem. (Published June with @readfrontier.bsky.social)
To Protect Its Drinking Water, This City Has to Appeal to the Oil Regulators That Put It at Risk
Oklahoma restricts oil field wastewater injection within a half-mile of public water wells. Regulators have let companies do it anyway. But in the city of Enid, officials are pushing back against one ...
propublica.org
You can’t talk about debt without talking about how we got into a bad predicament, and there’s only one correct answer: tax cuts enacted this century
Two married professors and their son are being held in ICE detention, despite being legal permanent residents and having no criminal records. All, apparently, because their mom/MIL was a translator for the Iranian hostage takers in 1979, before they were even born. www.thenation.com/article/soci...
One Woman’s Message From the Hell of ICE Detention
My husband, son, and I have been locked up for months—despite being permanent residents with no criminal record. It is an unendurable, unending nightmare.
thenation.com
An extension, perhaps, of @mattgraham.bsky.social's excellent POQ article on % undecided and attitude strength here: academic.oup.com/poq/article-...
“We Don’t Know” Means “They’re Not Sure”
Abstract. The most familiar approach to handling respondent uncertainty about survey questions, the “don’t know” (DK) response, has an inconvenient feature
academic.oup.com
@mattgraham.bsky.social has shown a lot of stated endorsements of false claims work this way Sometimes people are true believers but a lot of the time they're making flimsy “miseducated guesses” based on what they’ve heard and change their minds or bounce around later doi.org/10.1017/S000...
Measuring Misperceptions? | American Political Science Review | Cambridge Core
Measuring Misperceptions? - Volume 117 Issue 1
doi.org
Scenes from a personalist regime; The President”s personal lawyer is sworn into high office by another of the Presidents’s personal lawyers, now a judge
patrick mcneil (he/him)@patrickryne.bsky.social · 4w agoI'm sorry, what do you mean TODD BLANCHE WAS SWORN IN BY EMIL BOVE?
I'll be spending the second half of October in the UK for a short tour to present my new book project, Immigration for Realists. If you'd like to organize a seminar or meet up, let me know!
🌿 Nature isn’t just threatened by climate change. It’s also one of our strongest defenses against it. WRI President & CEO Ani Dasgupta explains how nature can help protect communities from extreme heat, wildfires and floods: bit.ly/3Sq6vjR
The Best Defense Against 'Natural' Disasters Is Nature Itself
Many leaders think of nature as a thing that needs protecting, when we really should be thinking about how nature can protect us. Nature restoration is an underutilized solution to the world's growing...
bit.ly
Having fun brainstorming new research designs based on reviewer comments. Peer review is great.
Starting a thread for uses of AI in survey research that I would like to see, but (to the best of my knowledge, and I've looked) do not either exist yet, or work well enough yet.
Classic situation in these types of regimes where people only tell the boss what he wants to hear because they are afraid not to.Trump hasn’t set himself up to get good information because he doesn’t want it, and got rid of people who could advise him properly www.washingtonpost.com/national-sec...
Trump, Hegseth clashed at Camp David over Iran missile depletion concerns
At a Camp David summit this weekend, President Trump demanded answers from Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth over extreme munitions shortages.
washingtonpost.com
The conventional wisdom is the Democrats' big climate law failed to deliver votes and then died. That's wrong. My new study finds its factories moved 2.5 million votes—more than Trump's margin. And the law's still alive. My latest in @theatlantic.com. Gift link! www.theatlantic.com/ideas/2026/0...
Bidenomics Was More Successful Than People Think
Conventional wisdom holds that Joe Biden’s bet on climate investment was a bust. The data suggest otherwise.
theatlantic.com
“Trump has rejected disaster aid for Democratic-run states at the highest rate in the 47-year history of the Federal Emergency Management Agency.” Right now people in blue states are basically paying federal taxes as if they’re colonized territories of red states. www.politico.com/news/2026/03...
The President of the United States repeatedly lying about American citizens and trying to lock them up in a pathetic attempt to cover up a botched renovation of the Reflection Pool that wasted millions of taxpayer dollars should be a much bigger story in the news.
Don't let this report slip through the news cycle unnoticed: federal officials recently admitted that the Trump administration canceled billions in federal grants to states "based solely" on whether they backed the president in the 2024 election. This is a big deal. 🧵1/6
tony romm@tonyromm.bsky.social · 2mo agoNEW: In a stunning admission, the Trump administration admitted in court documents that it canceled billions in energy grants to states "based solely" on politics -- and whether that state was represented by Democrats and backed Harris in 2024. www.nytimes.com/2026/07/24/b...
Writing a paper introduction is more art than science, but a good formula gets you most of the way there. Today's blog post: a paragraph-by-paragraph template that is used pretty commonly, plus the mistakes I see most often. 🧵 #EconSky deryugina.com/a-two-for-on...
A two-for-one blog post on writing introductions – Tatyana Deryugina
deryugina.com
Trump admin has quietly drafted new rules governing the census expected to recategorize millions of immigrants (both unauthorized and legal) as not actually living here in the United States This would allow the GOP to steal congressional seats & redirect hundreds of billions of federal dollars
Inside Trump’s Stealth Trick to Rig the Census—and Congress
The administration’s latest power grab is disguised as boring technical guidance.
thebulwark.com
This is the drum Adam Bonica and others have been beating (I think Lee Drutman also had a piece on this as well).
The Mothership Vortex: An Investigation Into the Firm at the Heart of the Democratic Spam Machine
How a single consulting firm extracted $282 million from a network of spam PACs while delivering just $11 million to actual campaigns.
data4democracy.substack.com
If you're on social media right now you might be free for this webinar 2 weeks from now. tinyurl.com/i-tracking
Orwell is cited a lot these days, and yes "we have always been at war with Eastasia" applies here. But the most Orwellian thing about all this is doublethink. You are required to believe the US and Iran have been at war for 47 years AND that the US and Iran have been at war for only a few months.
