How might the developing #ElNiño influence the UK's weather this autumn and winter? Our latest blog explains what El Niño is, what the latest Met Office long-range outlook says for September to November, and why UK weather is influenced by a range of factors, not just one climate driver 👇

What does the latest long-range forecast tell us and what role could El Niño play this autumn?

As we have moved into meteorological autumn, many are asking what the coming months might have in store for UK weather.

metoffice.gov.uk

Went to see "Pressure" last night – fantastic depiction of the most important forecast ever made, and a great advert for meteorology. Particularly glad that Maureen Sweeney is recognised by name – we interviewed her for this @rmets.org Weather in my Life article in 2021 doi.org/10.1002/wea....

Weather in my life – Maureen Sweeney

Click on the article title to read more.

doi.org

Have you ever wondered how different the D-Day forecast would have been if Group Captain James Stagg had access to modern meteorological technology? Read www.rmets.org/sites/defaul... to find out whether, more than 80 years later, modern meteorology would have led to a different conclusion.

Finally plucked up courage to get a couple of bits of my artwork framed. Huge imposter syndrome and embarrassment going on even as I picked them up from the framers.

Absolute scenes at Sainsburys today. The Great Growbag grab. Someone spotted they were selling for an unmarked 88p each. Instantly there were trolleys filled with compost. An old lady climbed into the window display. A charitable chap grabbed two bags for me before resuming filling his trolley. 🤣

"Dame Angela said: "We're about to experience probably the largest El Niño... that will lead to drier summers, wetter winters, with more extreme storms in this country." Since when does El Niño have a deterministic teleconnection of that magnitude to the UK? Sigh. www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...

Stock up on food to prepare for extreme El Niño weather, minister says

Dame Angela Eagle warns the weather event could lead to extreme storms this winter.

bbc.co.uk

This is what a 355km cycle trip looks like in the context of Europe. So tiny! But we made it. Vienna to Budapest roughly following the Danube on the EV6. 🎉 ( mapped using @statshunters.bsky.social) Ps. Don't take the Pest side cycling into the city. Too scary. 🤣

Danube vanishing in places.

Weather and climate affect every aspect of our lives but understanding them requires more than forecasts and headlines. Introducing the RMetS Member Portal: a new member-exclusive hub for expert views, interviews, blogs, career stories, event recordings and more. www.rmets.org/members?utm_...

I do not like these in our hotel. Too many legs. Apparently nearly harmless to humans. <faints>.

Greetings from the Hungarian side of the Danube, where we have a thunderstorm warning (and temps in the 30s again) . Tricky when the cycling is out on the wide open flats. Oh dear!

Its a pity that UK convection wakes up just as we are baking ourselves cycling the Danube river. River seems to be lacking in places and 33c with ridiculously strong headwinds is a bit much. There may have been a touch of mild sobbing today. 😬 🥵

How the heck do we keep missing the rain in our little corner of the country? Just 2.2mm so far today.

I did a thing today. Installed a garage threshold to reduce the threat of surface water flooding coming into it. Its not happened yet, but ya know - warm SSTs, El Niño etc...

TORRO extends its sympathy to those affected by the tornado that struck Pomas, Aude on Mon 24 Aug. Our thoughts are with those who lost homes or were injured, and with emergency responders on the ground. This event underscores the need to understand severe convective storms in NW Europe.

Some fine stiles @lakesstiles.bsky.social today on our 11 mile walk between Abbotsbury and Ferrybridge today. And a bonus one after.

A wet start to a 12 mile walk with a friend this afternoon. Bridport to Abbotsbury. @lakesstiles.bsky.social A wet stile!

www.bbc.co.uk/weather/arti... I had an early brief on this and ordered a pallet of sandbags for my marginally flood-prone house. They’re easy to obtain in the middle of a drought! This is a good article by the BBC covering some of the global impacts to be expected from such a strong El Niño.

El Niño set to be 'strongest in living memory', says Met Office

Scientists say the growing El Niño weather pattern is an "unprecedented event" and means 2027 is likely to be the world's hottest year on record.

bbc.co.uk

Dorset on a bus.

The record for longest absolute drought seems to be Mile End and its 73-day drought - a record that looks increasingly dubious when plotted alongside other London stations in 1893. It seems improbable (in my view) that Mile End would have missed out on rain for ~43 more days.

53 days of absolute drought is broken by.... 1.8mm of rain. Sigh. At least it will have made a difference for firefighters locally hopefully. Not that much use for everything else.

Not a walk along the Basingstoke canal, but a boat trip with friends. How lovely! But flipping heck the rain can't come soon enough. Trees dying along the banks.

New TORRO site investigation report: a T2 tornado tracked 1.7km through Coldwood or Foorkill, Co. Galway on 26 June, felling trees and downing a power pole. Full report and damage mapping here: www.torro.org.uk/research/event

The Tornado and Storm Research Organisation (TORRO)

TORRO is a privately-supported research body specialising in severe convective weather in Britain and Ireland

torro.org.uk

Shower dodging. Still 0.0mm 52 days since last measurable rainfall. Todays drizzle was just enough to damp the chairs.

Very moving to see the Royal Charter memorial at Moelfre. This tragic shipwreck with 460 lives lost inspired @metoffice.gov.uk founder Admiral Fitzroy to begin the storm warning service which later grew into the Shipping Forecast

Well this isn't good. Its a warehouse fire over in Harwich

The joke was on me. We underestimated the reach of the spray beyond the hedge. I errr panicked and ended up running through the full force. Thoroughly irrigated.

Sarah H@sarahhants.bsky.social · last mo.

This colour is called 'green'. Its a naturally occurring phenomenon which takes place when you apply water to plants.

This colour is called 'green'. Its a naturally occurring phenomenon which takes place when you apply water to plants.

The term “witch hunt” is overused in politics. Perhaps not now. Quite a bit of the British media should ask themselves serious questions as to whether the coverage they gave to this man was remotely proportionate. Likewise there are Qs for Cambridge- and whether they discharged their duty of care.

Harwich to Suffolk hopping on and off the England Coast Path. 15.5 miles. Temperature - almost 34c (according to closest Met Office obs) It was a day of following the river Stour, approximately! A lot of the ECP doesn't exist here yet and so Id mapped a route as best possible.