Emil Wannheden
@ewannhed.bsky.social
Analyst, Swedish Defence Research (FOI) Agency. Russia, economics, etc.
Despite 4 years of war & 20 sanctions packages, EU–Russia trade still totaled €57.2bn in 2025. A new Kiel Policy Brief shows that a targeted “Ukraine Support Tariff” on this trade could raise €11–16bn annually for 🇺🇦 while increasing pressure on Russia 👉 kielinstitut.de/publications... @julianhi.nz
Ny, smaskig rapport om Nigeria och västafrikansk säkerhetspolitik från FOI:s Afrikaprojekt, av Gabriella Körling och Olivier Milland: foi.se/rapporter/ra... Och ännu mer från Olivier Milland, om jihadistgrupperna i Sahelregionen: foi.se/rapporter/ra... @foiresearch.bsky.social
Fresh FOI Report from the print: The Future of Warfare in Russian Military Thinking. @foiresearch.bsky.social
https://www.foi.se/rapporter/rapportsammanfattning.html?reportNo=FOI-R--5806--SE
t.co
🔥 Just out: My new report on Russia’s Middle East policy after the wars in Ukraine, Gaza, Lebanon, Syria, and Iran. Russia must now make a choice: will it dig down alongside Iran or recalibrate to protect its interests? sceeus.se/publikatione... @uisweden.bsky.social @sceeus-ui.bsky.social
Our new @piie.com Working Paper on Russia’s war-induced regional convergence with @eribakova.bsky.social & @ygorodnichenko.bsky.social now out! @bofit.suomenpankki.fi @suomenpankki.fi Many poorer regions saw their incomes rise faster 2022-24 as public spending rose🇷🇺 www.piie.com/publications...
War-induced economic convergence in Russian regions
This paper examines the impact of Russia's 2022 full-scale invasion of Ukraine on Russia’s economy at a subnational, or “regional,” level. The analysis focuses on the regional disparities and converge...
piie.com
Good report on the role of the Bank of Russia during Russia’s war against Ukraine by @ewannhed.bsky.social foi.se/en/foi/repor...
Steady under fire: the Central Bank of Russia and the wartime economy
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foi.se
The Russian drone industry just became obsolete.
Meduza in English@meduza.io · 8mo agoA Russian neurotech firm says it has field-tested pigeons with brain implants that let operators steer the birds’ flight paths remotely. The “biodrone” pigeons supposedly follow uploaded directions and require no training. meduza.io/en/feature/2...
Russia published its budget report for Q3 of 2025. Military spending is not slowing down. In Q3, it was 38% higher than last year (3.6 trillion rubles in Q3, 11.9 trillion rubles so far for the year). Good news: Federal recruitment data is back!
BOFIT Weekly Review 43/2025 Russian economic growth expected to slow sharply; new sanctions increase risks Read more 🔗 www.bofit.fi/en/monitorin... #Russia #economy #BOFITWeeklyReview
Bank of Russia lowers its key rate 50 bps to 16.5%, and expects inflation to reach 4% target in the second half of 2026. Optimistic. cbr.ru/press/pr/?fi...
"The war is bad for most Russian businesses, if not all of them. But the coal sector is in really deep shit" sober analysis in the FT today
The Russian Finance Ministry now expects a deficit of 2.6% of GDP in 2025. Original plan was 0.5%, revised in June to 1.7%. The extra deficit will be financed with additional borrowing ~1% of GDP, leaving the National Wealth Fund intact (~2% of GDP liquid assets). www.interfax.ru/business/104...
Минфин планирует увеличить объем внутренних заимствований в 2025 году на 2,2 трлн рублей
Минфин РФ планирует в текущем году увеличить объем государственных заимствований на внутреннем рынке, выступающих источником финансирования дефицита бюджета.Объем заимствований РФ в 2025 году будет ув...
interfax.ru
In September 2021, @chrussiaeurasia.bsky.social published 'What Deters Russia', which looked at what succeeds and what fails when trying to dissuade Russia from doing something appalling (like invading its neighbours for instance.) www.chathamhouse.org/2021/09/what... [1/4]
What deters Russia
Enduring principles for responding to Moscow
chathamhouse.org
“Coalition of the willing”, “security guarantees” and now a “buffer zone”: the meaningless European pantomime continues while Russia contentedly proceeds with its murderous campaign. www.youtube.com/watch?v=-PYB...
Ukrainian DMZ is ‘unfeasible’ and only benefits Putin | Keir Giles
YouTube video by Times Radio
youtube.com
The sustainability of Russia's war effort is relative... (Wall Street Journal, www.wsj.com/world/how-wi...).
New piece in @foreignpolicy.com from me and @msnegovaya.bsky.social outlining why sanctions on Russia matter and ways to tighten them. Russia's economic adaptation since 2022 has been impressive, but there are real issues that tougher sanctions could exploit foreignpolicy.com/2025/08/04/t...
What the Next Round of Sanctions Against Russia Should Look Like
Moscow has successfully restructured its economy on an impressive war footing, but there are weaknesses under the hood.
foreignpolicy.com
The EU has an extensive sanctions regime against Russia - but it is constantly under threat of a veto from Hungary and Slovakia as it requires unanimity to be extended .In my latest piece I argue that the EU can overcome this by accusing Russia of economic coercion 1/n) www.cer.eu/insights/cas...
The case for using the Anti-Coercion Instrument against Russia
The EU sanctions regime against Russia is threatened by a Hungarian veto. The Anti-Coercion Instrument would allow the EU to bypass Budapest.
cer.eu
#Russia 's National Welfare Fund (i.e. oil fund) stood at $144.6 bn (5.5% of GDP) at the end of April. More importantly, liquid funds were $40.4 bn (1.5%). Liquid funds have decreased by more than $100 bn during the past three years.
And also re-upping this piece with the start of the IMF/WB Spring Meetings on why the IMF is a fantastic deal for America, thanks to THE HILL. thehill.com/opinion/fina...
The IMF is a fantastic deal for America
If the U.S. steps back from the IMF, there will only be one winner: China.
thehill.com
Any economic cooperation with Russia today only strengthens its military capabilities, making it a greater threat to Europe. Russia will remain militarised even with a ceasefire, warns Swedish Defence Research Agency (FOI) analyst @ewannhed.bsky.social in an interview with @diplomaatia.bsky.social.
How to Break Russia’s Economic Back - ICDS
Russia's war effort is more political than economic consideration. Although the price of the war is high, Russia is willing to bear it, says Emil Wannheden, an economic analyst at the Swedish Defence ...
icds.ee
Igasugune majanduskoostöö Venemaaga on vesi tema veskile ja oht Euroopa julgeolekule. Venemaa militariseeritus jätkub isegi siis, kui sõlmida relvarahu, leiab Rootsi Kaitseuuringute Agentuuri (FOI) majandusanalüütik Emil Wannhedeniga. @ewannhed.bsky.social
Emil Wannheden: Kuidas murda Venemaa majandust – Diplomaatia
Venemaa sõjapingutused on rohkem poliitiline kui majanduslik kaalutlus. Kuigi sõja hind on kõrge, on Venemaa valmis seda kandma, leidis Balti Kaitsekolledži Vene konverentsil osalenud Emil Wannheden, ...
diplomaatia.ee
