jesusfuckingchrist

Oregon senators warn prediction markets allowing betting on wildfires could incentivize arson

A public report urges the CFTC to ban prediction market contracts on destructive wildfires, raising concerns over public safety and potential arson.

kptv.com

Low turnout elections without reliable demographic (and for a party primary no partisan) target weights that one can infer from prior elections are very difficult to poll correctly, and thus have wide error

G Elliott Morris@gelliottmorris.com · 16h ago

What is truly "shocking" about the polling miss in Michigan is that it is completely average for a primary "The expected error on the margin between two primary candidates in a race for governor or U.S. Senate is a whopping 13.0 points." blog.fiftyplusone.news/p/2026-texas...

Rather, discuss the assumptions that must be made for causal identification. All causal identification requires assumptions. The inference you are making might just require more than others.

Don't posit a theory that is only interesting because it implies X causes variation in Y, test for a statistical relationship between X and Y, but then say you are not interpreting causally. Of course you are interpreting it causally. That was the whole point of what you just did.

I have become emotionally attached to a client team and it’s great, actually. Happens like *maybe* every three years.

The era of AI-powered search has made Reddit mentions highly valuable. Subreddit moderators are catching brands trying to take advantage. www.theverge.com/ai-artificia...

Can Reddit fend off a new wave of AI SEO spam?

The era of AI-powered search has made Reddit mentions highly valuable. Subreddit moderators are catching brands trying to take advantage.

theverge.com

Is there a detailed analysis of the outcome of the Michigan vote in 2024 anywhere, that combines turnout, vote method, county results, age/gender/race/education cross tabs, and compares them to 2020 or 2022?

YouGov, Qualtrics, Ipsos and just about most other companies with an online panel asset, have created or at least experimented with synthetic replicas (because it's another way to monetize the data)

We had a movie weekend with friends. We watched Disclosure Day. It was awful. We watched The Devil Wears Prada 2. It was awful. We watched Project Hail Mary. It was wonderful. My various social feeds did not seem to entirely share this set of opinions. The algo still doesn't know me, after all.

NYPL Archives Tips: "For the five boroughs, there really is no collection of historical 'police records' ...any smattering that was kept and saved resembles a hail of rocks launched from a Bowery window during the 1857 Dead Rabbits Riot across the records rooms and libraries of the Big Apple."

“Let me give you a line published by the AP yesterday: The U.S. government ‘has spent $827 billion so far this fiscal year to service the national debt, more than it has devoted to national defense.’” Trump and the GOP Congress: More for debt than for defense. open.substack.com/pub/jaynordl...

A Screaming Yet Quiet Problem, &c.

On our national finances, Charles Krauthammer, a hero’s daughter, names in baseball, and more

open.substack.com

Spent maybe too much time last night reading the CNN/SSRS poll and found myself thinking about what a category is like when one brand’s consumer is reluctant and the other brand’s consumer is complacent. Haven’t newslettered for a bit - link in post below.

Farrah Bostic@farrahbostic.bsky.social · 5d ago

Saw that CNN/SSRS poll and... woof. www.crosstabspodcast.com/the-least-ba...

Saw that CNN/SSRS poll and... woof. www.crosstabspodcast.com/the-least-ba...

The Least Bad Option

I’ve been entirely focused on listening to New Yorkers for a pretty big project and so my head has been in people’s real lives and stories and not as much in polling averages the past few months. So w...

crosstabspodcast.com

"More than just a metaphor: the 2026 slogan."

𝕭illy Gui.¶@guibilly.bsky.social · 6d ago

Encore plus qu'une métaphore : le slogan de 2026.

"The rate of young people who become Neets is ultimately downstream of the strength of their local economies, not the curriculum".

Stephen Bush@stephenkb.bsky.social · last wk.

Started writing on Andy Burnham’s education proposal thinking “not sure about this”. Realised in writing “no, I am sure: it sucks!”

Okay so I don’t really understand why anyone but the treasury would inherit his fortune. I don’t understand why people who commit crimes on a mass scale and then die get to pass on ill-gotten gains to coconspirators who were enriched during their lifetimes. www.nytimes.com/2026/07/26/b...

Meet Jeffrey Epstein’s Girlfriend, Who Stands to Inherit Much of His Estate

Karyna Shuliak, 37, is a complicated and unusual figure in the disgraced financier’s world who has been trying to blend into obscurity since his death.

nytimes.com

"The constitution doesn't count at the border" is one of those things that just isn't in the constitution, but i'm sure originalists can make something up

I’ve been side eying millennial thought leaders about this great wealth transfer they’ve been anticipating because… yeah. Lots of boomers still owe money on their homes, don’t own homes, have little to no retirement savings, and are living longer/paying more for care.

Opinion Today@opiniontoday.bsky.social · 2w ago

As the cost of aging soars, families’ wealth is evaporating: Growing old is eroding the inheritance Americans hoped to leave behind, a Washington Post analysis found. Many will have nothing to pass on. 🎁Gift article: washingtonpost.com/business/202...

Turned down Riyadh, BUT NOT THE OREGON STATE FAIR 🦫🦦🫈🪵

Steven Santos@stevensantos.bsky.social · 2w ago

Guess who had the integrity not to accept $1 million to perform at the Riyadh Comedy Festival last year?

Here's the latest piece. Like @katie-drummond.bsky.social says, it's free for everyone to read, because James Dolan doesn't want you to: www.wired.com/story/for-ta...

For Taylor Swift, Madison Square Garden’s Controversial Cameras Briefly Went Dark

MSG’s sprawling surveillance system can monitor guests down to the second. Its owners made an exception for the pop star’s rehearsal dinner.

wired.com

Lots of interesting things in this chart, but this one stands out: 51% of Americans agree with *neither* party on AI policy. www.pewresearch.org/politics/202...

Don’t forget to sign up for a library card. Live in NYC? www.nypl.org/locations

The real literacy gap seems to be among brand marketers who’ve never read the liner notes.

Katie Drummond@katie-drummond.bsky.social · 2w ago

Another ill-advised tech company AI ad just dropped:

I am a person who wants never to go online again but also to understand why there is no cellular signal along the most trafficked highways of Long Island.

As we describe in our book, Musk’s model of state symbiosis assumes that, in the end, you need to be backed up by Uncle Sam.

I guess Magyar is not going to simply turn the page and return to normal because there's nothing wrong with Hungary that can't be solved by what's right with Hungary and we're not going back.

Reuters@reuters.com · 2w ago

Hungary's opposition Fidesz party says prosecutors raided its office reut.rs/4wkiq1q

Should we take a tally of all the favorite founding fathers of Bush-era/Reaganite Republicans who took on the rich and powerful, believed in social safety nets and wealth taxation? Would it be fun?

Manisha Sinha@profmsinha.bsky.social · 2w ago

Historian here, Free soil Free Labor Free Men!

Missing from this long section from Nate Silver on 2024: Any mention at all of inflation and retrospective voting, or Biden’s age. It’s all about ideology, a pure Strategist Brain take on 2024 for elite center-left types — an ideological piece, not an empirical one open.substack.com/pub/natesilv...

12 questions for the center-left

The center-left offers an alternative to both the left and the Democratic “establishment.” But it’s losing influence — and struggling to define itself.

open.substack.com

Hey @erinbiba.bsky.social please enjoy this storytelling masterclass, this emotional voyage, this impeccable sense of pacing and timing

Serbian President Vucic announced he’ll resign after 18 months of student protests. That’s Bangladesh, Nepal, Madagascar, Bulgaria, Hungary, and now Serbia, all in the past two years. Anti-corruption is the most potent force for positive political change right now. The US remains ripe.

Serbian President Vucic says he will resign within weeks

Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic said on Saturday he would resign ​within weeks and the country will hold early presidential and parliamentary elections, following 18 months of anti-government prote...

reuters.com