Can the values of SpaceX’s main businesses — rockets 🚀, satellites 🛰️ and AI 🤖 — add up to anything near $1.75 trillion? Play around with the multiples with a new interactive calculator from @breakingviews.reuters.com to decide 👉 reut.rs/4wJd6VZ And read the related column here 👉 reut.rs/4tLDMCH
The biggest M&A deal ever. A crypto bailout. Just some of the things Breakingviews columnists predict for 2026 in a new e-book, ‘Far Side of the Boom’. Access the book 👉 reut.rs/3YDKKwu Or read articles online 👉 reut.rs/45puKSz
As the world enters 2026, Breakingviews columnists map out how powerful forces of macroeconomic stimulus, exuberance over artificial intelligence and corporate dealmaking could interact with tensions between great powers, financial gravity and political dysfunction in the coming 12 months.
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I understand why they didn't say pre-budget: "The main reason we need to raise tax is to build headroom against the fiscal rules - we want to put the markets to bed and move on." As that sounds like an arbitrary use of people's taxes - plugging a conceptual gap.
This OBR/Treasury row on who said what, when... is very muddy and complicated. A few points: • idea that the OBR said on Oct 31 Reeves was already meeting her target by £4b isn't really the full picture - fcast excluded the welfare u-turns since March (some media have pointed that out, others not)
For several years I've written a weekly note to the @breakingviews.reuters.com team, picking out key insights and ideas. Some colleagues urged me to share these musings more widely. So behold The Week in Breakingviews, free in your inbox each Saturday. Sign up here: www.reuters.com/newsletters/...
So @dsquareddigest.bsky.social is a former banks analyst who has written books on fraud and on systemic failures. That makes him the ideal person to come on The Big View and talk about stablecoins. Listen here: podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast/t...
The Big View
News Podcast · Updated weekly · Reuters Breakingviews columnists tap their best contacts to explore the biggest issues driving business and markets today. Every Tuesday, Global Editor Peter Thal Larse...
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VDL ruled out revisiting the EU’s “untouchable” regulations on digital content and market power, which Trump officials see as taxes on Big Tech firms, and Europe's VAT rules “These are not in the packages of negotiation because these are our sovereign decisions” Full interview: on.ft.com/43Qg7Ic
EU could tax Big Tech if Trump trade talks fail, says von der Leyen
[FREE TO READ] European Commission president tells FT she wants ‘balanced’ deal but could hit US services in retaliation
on.ft.com
In an interview w @roulak.bsky.social, @andybounds.bsky.social & I, @vonderleyen.ec.europa.eu said the EU wants a “completely balanced” deal. “[But] we are developing retaliatory measures” she said. “There’s a wide range of countermeasures . . . in case the negotiations are not satisfactory”
💥 EU could levy new taxes on Big Tech companies' digital advertising revenues if negotiations with Trump over trade tariffs fail, Ursula von der Leyen tells @financialtimes.com “It’s a turning point with the United States without any question... We will never go back" on.ft.com/429u02T
EU could tax Big Tech if Trump trade talks fail, says von der Leyen
[FREE TO READ] European Commission president tells FT she wants ‘balanced’ deal but could hit US services in retaliation
on.ft.com
The Trump administration "is effectively demanding an overnight overhaul of an immensely expensive and complicated supply chain, threatening pure destruction." www.reuters.com/breakingview...
Breakingviews - US auto tariffs zoom past economic speed limit
Donald Trump is threatening to drive the U.S. auto industry so hard that the wheels fall off. In a Wednesday press conference, the president announced25% tariffs on cars and parts, endangering a border-hopping global supply chain. The touted tolls could be enough to total carmakers’ collective profit. Autos are strategically valuable, but this goes too far, too fast.
reuters.com
Me whenever people talk about "too low" UK interest rates and QE in the 2010s
Dario Perkins @darioperkins.bsky.social · last yr.UK fiscal policy should have been much looser in the 2010s and tighter now. It was post-GFC austerity - done at a time of private sector deleveraging - that has made fiscal consolidation so difficult today (even when private sector balance sheets are OK). Osborne and co. still don't get this...
Deep dive with @breakingviews.reuters.com colleague Afiq Fitri Alias, looking at whether Trump’s review should find in favour of consciously uncoupling the US from the World Bank. Short answer: no. Long answer ⬇️
Breakingviews - How the World Bank can defend itself from Trump
Up until two years ago, Ajay Banga had spent most of his career in the private sector – as a banker at Citigroup and latterly as the CEO of Mastercard . Now the World Bank president finds himself having to defend one of the linchpins of the liberal international order against President Donald Trump, who last month ordered a government review that could see the United States quit as the 81-year-old institution’s top shareholder. Yet Banga has arguments and hard facts on his side, which could help him appeal to U.S. self-interest.
reuters.com
Great to hear @bbcradio4.bsky.social Today programme follow up on our @theguardian.com investigation into the TV crisis this morning. Broadcasters, big production companies - speak to me about it! Michael.savage@theguardian.com
Michael Savage@michaelsavage.bsky.social · last yr.NEW: There’s a crisis in the TV industry. People with 10, 20 even 30 years experience are now stacking shelves, working in pubs, using up savings - even selling houses. It’s the talk of the TV world. An industry crisis in plain sight. Many factors at play - but this is not normal. Story:
There’s a real possibility that Trump doesn’t impose any permanent tariffs but trade still collapses because all the importers assume that he has.
Come for the crunchy financial analysis of Aberdeen’s latest rebrand/strategy, by Neil Unmack… www.breakingviews.com/considered-v...
Abrdn finds its missing vowels but not value
New CEO Jason Windsor is renaming the $4.2 bln fund group Aberdeen and pledging to boost profit. Both steps are welcome but come amidst tricky markets and growing competition from index funds. Small w...
breakingviews.com
A triptych of stellar pieces by the redoubtable EMEA team at @breakingviews.reuters.com this week. First @liamproud.bsky.social on Patrick Drahi's unusual debt restructuring, then Neil Unmack on the return Thames Water investors can expect, and finally @jen-johnson.bsky.social on a WPP buyout.
A modest proposal from @georgehay.bsky.social: that the UK relax visa requirements for medical, scientific and technology researchers whose work has been disrupted by the Trump administration. Call it the “non-Don” regime. www.breakingviews.com/considered-v...
UK could lure US talent with a ‘non-Don’ regime
Britain has upset expats by ditching ‘non-dom’ rules that allowed them to swerve tax on offshore wealth. It could replace them by luring healthcare experts and scientists alienated by President Donald...
breakingviews.com
Exclusive: Zelenskiy says 'Let's do a deal', offering Trump mineral partnership, seeking security - www.reuters.com/world/zelens...
Exclusive: Zelenskiy says 'Let's do a deal', offering Trump mineral partnership, seeking security
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy pored over a once-classified map of vast deposits of rare earths and other critical minerals during an interview with Reuters on Friday, part of a push to appeal to Donald Trump's penchant for a deal.
reuters.com
From me - on the limits of Jevons Paradox: www.breakingviews.com/features/ai-...
AI giants’ less-is-more logic bears three caveats
Breakthroughs in building cheaper silicon smarts threaten tech firms enjoying a spending boom. Microsoft’s CEO offered comfort in a 160-year-old observation that efficiency gains stoked coal demand. F...
breakingviews.com
In no particular order, some thoughts on the fiscal stuff: 1) Lots of the coverage about rising yields has been a bit excitable. It's bad, but not a crisis. It's largely down to global factors. There's lots of moving parts and Rachel Reeves might yet meet her fiscal rules without changing a thing.
Ben Zaranko@benzaranko.bsky.social · 2y agoSome Friday afternoon thoughts on what rising gilt yields mean for the Chancellor ifs.org.uk/articles/rac...
This is pure gold, Greek edition. How did Eurobank achieve such an increase in capital ratios, in Q3 24? The trick is in the +99bps. Which comes from a mysterious decrease of 2.4bn€ in RWA. But how? Deleveraging? Oh no, that would be hard work. I’ve got a better idea. Thread.
You can easily see the most stressed areas in the map. And note that values of real estate exposed to climate risk has started to fall.
Probably the biggest disconnect in markets: -houses are the most valuable asset for most Americans -the US system is built upon the 30yr mortgage -you can't get a mortgage without insurance - insurance will be vastly more costly or unavailable in many areas in the future.
It's well-known that mature tech firms (Stripe, SpaceX etc.) have been delaying going public. But a boom in off-market share sales raises an intriguing new possibility: the perpetually private startup. www.breakingviews.com/considered-v...
How private share sales could kill the tech IPO
Databricks, Stripe and Elon Musk’s $350 bln SpaceX facilitated large exits by insiders without a float. There’s a growing pool of patient capital targeting mature startups. The bigger the trend gets, ...
breakingviews.com
Here is 11 hours of almost unbroken tweeting by Elon Musk, starting at midnight GMT/7pm EST on Monday. How is he getting anything else done?
London’s lethargy aids Boaz Weinstein’s new tilt - www.breakingviews.com/considered-v...
London’s lethargy aids Boaz Weinstein’s new tilt
The US hedge fund manager wants to boot out the board at seven UK investment companies. His fund Saba, which bet against the London Whale, is no stranger to targeting underperforming funds. The growin...
breakingviews.com
Big Booze speeds towards low-growth tobacco status - www.breakingviews.com/considered-v...
Big Booze speeds towards low-growth tobacco status
The US surgeon general wants health warnings on alcohol bottles. Declining drinking rates have already shrunk the valuations of brewers like Carlsberg to 12 times forward earnings, nearing tobacco lev...
breakingviews.com
Are alcohol companies the new tobacco companies? Almost, according to their valuations
