NYT account of a WH meeting of just five people: DJT, Wiles, Worrington, Burgum, and Pirro. The story favors Pirro in her fight w Burgum. Gee, who could have leaked? Good luck to Burgum removing that knife from his back. www.nytimes.com/2026/08/04/u...

Inside the Oval Office Showdown Between Trump and Jeanine Pirro

Jeanine Pirro, the U.S. attorney for the District of Columbia, told President Trump that his interior secretary, Doug Burgum, had misled him with a self-serving cover story for his own mistakes.

nytimes.com

Churchill negotiated a better deal at Munich

Rubio: “The problem with Iran is every time they make a deal, the people that are in charge there, they either break it or they want to change it” Is this a sly dig at his boss, or is Rubio taking on Trump’s habit of projection like an oversized pair of shoes?

It’s really a great question because it immediately reveals whether someone is unfit for public service. bsky.app/profile/atru...

Aaron Rupar@atrupar.com · 3w ago

OSSOFF: Who won the 2020 election? CLAYTON: Uhm, you know, I'm not going to do this with you O: This is a job interview. You have an obligation to be honest with the committee. Who won the 2020 election? C: I'm not gonna get into that with you O: You're not being honest or forthright C: ...

Democrats have stopped talking about climate. Strategists say that's smart—but they're wrong. Making climate a top priority wins votes, and barely 1 in 10 voters will vote against climate action. Read all about it in my newsletter, "Notes from the Electric Era." electricnotes.news/p/yes-democr...

Yes, Democrats Should Talk About Climate.

Talking about Climate Change is a Political Winner.

electricnotes.news

Maine Party Chair Dingman says the process to replace Platner will “have a nominating convention” and “be representative.” “Convention” evokes the undemocratic insider process that primaries replaced.“Representative” means voters have a say. How to square these? www.nytimes.com/2026/07/08/u...

Graham Platner Suspended His Campaign. Here’s What’s Next for Democrats.

nytimes.com

If Platner drops, the Dem. Party in Maine has the opportunity to do what the DNC utterly failed to do when Biden dropped: run a selection process that lets voters have a say (and creates drama and great media coverage). www.politico.com/news/2026/07...

One advantage of rank choice voting you get more info. Nirav Shah got more first round votes for Governor than Pingree, and is a good choice to replace Plattner if he drops out. Anyone who was the face of a state’s Covid policy and came out popular has talent. ballotpedia.org/Maine_gubern...

This news gutted me. I don’t won’t go into details, but Raul was publicly, bravely KIND to me at a very low point in my professional life when so others were cowardly, weak, and mean. He owed me nothing. He gave because he wanted to. A rare occurrence in my life. jovanevery.co.uk/in-memoriam-...

In memoriam: Raul Pacheco-Vega - Jo VanEvery

Raul had been conscious of his mortality for a long time. Many years ago he came to terms with his workaholism and took serious steps to change his behaviour for the sake of his health. I know he stil...

jovanevery.co.uk

Very sorry to hear about the sudden passing of Raul Pacheco Vega @raulpachecovega.bsky.social Raul was a prolific researcher who was also intensely committed to teaching and helping others with their research. He will be sorely missed.

It was utterly predictable that once the primaries were over and Trump could not primary them, Congressional Republicans would distance themselves from Trump. Now we get to see how much — and whether voters will throw them out anyway.

Seeing a lot of bad takes on how Indiana elections show Trump’s enduring power. These were primary elections for state senate. So VERY low turnout. Huge spending plus Trump name led to wins. For US House, Trump can influence primaries but that will just lead to bigger losses on November.

A few thoughts on the @istories.bsky.social story about "a report by an intelligence service of a European Union country on the real situation in the Kremlin and the condition of Vladimir Putin." 🧵 1) The basic idea that Putin is more concerned about his personal security seems plausible. 1/10

Vladimir Putin fears an assassination attempt and a coup, tensions among security services are rising, an EU intelligence agency says

Независимое медиа. Расследования, репортажи, интервью и истории о том, что важно

storage.googleapis.com

The nine states where Trump still has more approval than disapproval total only about 9% of the US population. The midterms are going to be lit.

Molly Jong-Fast@mollyjongfast.bsky.social · 3mo ago

6 months from the midterms

As HR McMaster said, in Afghanistan we fought a one-year war, 20 times over. Now Trump says he can fight a sixty day war in Iran as many times as he wants to get around the War Powers clock.

I will be teaching a one-week case study methods course in St. Gallen, Switzerland June 15-19. Get info and sign up by May 10 here: gserm.org/programme/co...

On the bright side, we are about to show China why you shouldn’t launch invasions in a contested maritime environment

Shipwreck@shipwreck75.bsky.social · 4mo ago

Pentagon prepares for weeks of ground operations in Iran www.washingtonpost.com/national-sec...

Basically the shifting goals means Iran won, and I don’t say this flippantly

Aman Batheja@amanbatheja.bsky.social · 5mo ago

The “main goal” of the Iran War may have changed, reports Washington Post: “Israeli officials said securing the [Strait of Hormuz] for energy shipments could become the war’s main goal now that regime change and ending Iran’s ability to obtain a nuclear weapon seem out of reach.”

Lots of speculation rn (such as this FT article) on what war in the Middle East means for the future of oil. What do we know about the conditions under which we reach tipping points in clean energy adoption? Political science can tell us a lot! 🧵

China battery trio gain $70bn as Iran war sparks ‘paradigm shift’

Share price rises for clean energy companies outstrip oil majors as investors bet on switch to renewables

ft.com

Oh. So they want Obama’s nuclear deal minus Obama’s signature. Got it.

They’re telling me a great empire will be destroyed if I attack Persia. Even the oracles who don’t like me very much, very nasty, they all said to me, “Sir, it’s one of the great empires, and it’ll be destroyed. And all because you attacked Persia.” That’s what they’re telling me.

The is the federal government telling news stations to provide favorable coverage of the war or their licenses will be pulled. A truly extraordinary moment. We aren't on the verge of a totalitarian takeover. WE ARE IN THE MIDDLE OF IT. Act like it.

If we made the green energy transition this war would be unthinkable and these authoritarians wouldn’t be in power — not in the US, not in Iran, not in Saudi Arabia, not in Russia. Hydrocarbons are killing our freedom and just plain killing us.

My latest on the Iranian threat to the Strait of Hormuz in @foreignaffairs.com www.foreignaffairs.com/iran/hormuz-...

The Hormuz Minefield

In the strait, Iran holds the advantage—and America has no good options.

foreignaffairs.com

My class was scheduled to read Thomas Schelling this month in our course on Nuclear Weapons and World Politics. It turned out to be a current affairs course. Here's part 1 of my series on reading Schelling in this crisis. open.substack.com/pub/musgrave...

Reading Schelling in Tehran: 1

Technically, in Doha

open.substack.com

“Gulf states can no longer believe the United States can or will protect them from existential threats. And even as they are forced to openly cooperate with Israel in its war, they increasingly view it as a threat.” My new piece on the Gulf and the Iran war. foreignpolicy.com/2026/03/05/i...

The United States Could Lose the Gulf

Iran’s attacks on its neighbors are a reminder that the United States cannot protect them.

foreignpolicy.com

Excellent piece on the profound changes that the AI tsunami is bringing to social science research: www.brookings.edu/articles/the...

The train has left the station: Agentic AI and the future of social science research | Brookings

A new era of agentic AI agents has begun. What does it mean for social scientists? Solomon Messing and Joshua Tucker discuss.

brookings.edu

Very good rapid reaction by @professormusgrave.bsky.social One caveat: we don't really know whether a country like Iran is a paper tiger until it's tested in war. Maybe it will collapse. Still would be bad. musgrave.substack.com/p/an-unpopul...

An Unpopular, Doomed, Bloody War

People will die and nothing will be accomplished

musgrave.substack.com

These are maximalist aims. A country is at its most dangerous backed into a corner facing an existential threat, which Trump appears to have unleashed. What is the off-ramp from the escalation ladder here? 2/ www.nytimes.com/2026/02/28/w...

Trump Calls for Overthrow of Iran’s Government

nytimes.com