Matthew Price
@matthewbprice.bsky.social
Political data guy at Focaldata.
Check out the new Irish Election Studies Archive: irishelectionstudies.org All major election, referendum, and other voter studies! All with standardized variable coding and detailed codebooks. And we're still compiling more data sets! @cses.bsky.social @psaireland.bsky.social
Irish Election Studies Archive
irishelectionstudies.org
The local elections in one chart. Labour has been squeezed between the Greens in young wards and Reform in older working-class wards www.economist.com/britain/2026...
This gives a really interesting indication of which contest(s) each party is targeting. Government parties hedging their bets; Soc Dems investing 2:1 in Daniel Ennis over Míde Nic Fhionnlaoich.
Liz Carolan@lizcarolan.com · 3mo agoHere is what the parties are spending on advertising (posters, leaflets, car wraps, bus shelter ads, canvassing jackets) for the by-election Comes to over €225k - so far (data scraped May 12th; 10 days out from polling day)
James’ faith in people on this platform to recognise satire is…brave. Read the piece!
James Breckwoldt@jamesbreckwoldt.bsky.social · 3mo agoNew devastatingly incisive, ruthlessly evidence-based, exquisitely nuanced, intellectually fearless and strategically indispensable analysis from me on how mainstream parties can win back the voters they’ve lost. Different parties require different responses.
Cruelly amusing how YouGov includes "Your Party: 0% (=)" every time.
YouGov@yougov.co.uk · 3mo agoLatest YouGov Westminster voting intention, 10-11 May 2026 Reform UK: 28% (+3 from 4-5 May) Conservatives: 17% (=) Greens: 16% (+1) Labour: 16% (-2) Lib Dems: 13% (-1) SNP: 3% (=) Restore Britain: 3% (-1) Plaid Cymru: 2% (+1) Your Party: 0% (=) yougov.com/en-gb/articl...
Our new @instituteforgovernment.org.uk report lists 10 things the government needs to do to fix the children's social care market. 👇I've done a little run down of some of the key charts
Fixing the children’s social care market | Institute for Government
Many children live in placements that do not meet their needs. The government’s reforms are promising, but rely on more joined-up public services.
instituteforgovernment.org.uk
On 7 May 2026, Britain ran a PR experiment: Scottish Parliament: a Mixed-Member Proportional system Welsh Senedd: a (new) Low-Magnitude Party List system Same day, same political context, different outcomes. Which version of PR would be better for Westminster? 🧵
New post-locals piece with my brilliant colleague @matthewbprice.bsky.social unherd.com/2026/05/six-...
Six coping myths about the local election
unherd.com
I really enjoyed chatting with Farrah about the state of play in UK politics, and much of our conversation feels even more relevant after today’s results. If you’ve had enough UK politics for one day, I recommend listening to something else from the Cross Tabs back catalogue - it’s great!
Farrah Bostic@farrahbostic.bsky.social · 3mo agoContinuing a sporadic schedule, I’m happy to share one part of my conversation with @matthewbprice.bsky.social from @focaldata.bsky.social about MRP polling, strategic voting, and the crack up of 2 major parties - good content for today’s elections in the UK! podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/c...
Totally agree. The genuinely new information from these results will mostly be about differential turnout, tactical voting, candidate effects, etc. We already know loads about voters' party preferences from the polls!
Jane Green@profjanegreen.bsky.social · 3mo agoWe know what the vote flows are from extensive survey data. We *dont* know the turnout story. It’s mad to draw vote flow inferences from seat changes.
Mad fact... 42% of Labour Prime Ministers have had to fire Peter Mandelson.
I’ve thoroughly enjoyed the first three episodes of this new podcast from @jlowen.bsky.social at @nestauk.bsky.social. Sharing in the hope it gets more attention and some clever SpAd nicks one or two ideas.
Nesta@nestauk.bsky.social · 5mo ago🎉 The Policy Fix is LIVE. Nesta’s new podcast digs into the UK’s biggest policy problems & how we can fix them. 🎧 Ep 1 out now - how to fix the UK tax system with @timleunig.bsky.social & @theifs.bsky.social @helenmiller.bsky.social Watch the full ep ➡️ https://bit.ly/46RJkTJ
A lot has been written about the consequences of electoral fragmentation in Britain - but I want to know your best theory of the causes. Why now? What happened to Duverger's Law? What makes it possible in the UK but not the US?
Everyone should read this (esp. if you spend a lot of time on this site).
James Breckwoldt@jamesbreckwoldt.bsky.social · 5mo agoWe explain political change using totally different causal models if we approve of outcome of not: 1. Change we like is organic, bottom-up genuine expression of public demand 2. Change we dislike is artificial, top-down result of manipulative elite I’m calling this Motivated Causal Attribution
A decision tree guide to political analysis for the cynical
YouGov are experienced, reputable etc. But personally I don’t see how Reform could be on 23% nationally and win 29% in Gorton and Denton.
YouGov@yougov.co.uk · 5mo agoOur latest voting intention (1-2 March 2026) has the Greens on their highest figure ever recorded by YouGov, significantly ahead of Labour, who are on their lowest figure to date Reform UK: 23% (-1 from 22-23 Feb) Greens: 21% (+4) Conservatives: 16% (-2) Labour: 16% (-2) Lib Dems: 14% (=)
There's a weird thing in UK politics. Labour treats Reform as largely correct on the merits but bad at implementation. It treats the Greens as wrong on the merits and so good at implementation they will destroy the country. But that's... the opposite of how their actual likely voters feel?
The New Statesman@newstatesman1913.bsky.social · 6mo agoLabour’s instinct is not to give the left what they want, but to chastise them for even wanting it. @jonnelledge.bsky.social: Equating the Greens with Reform will ruin Labour
The Workers' Party won 10% of the vote in Gorton and Denton in 2024, but none of those voters are in the poll from Omnisis. How many of them will vote? Probably not many. Who will they vote for? Probably the Greens. But we can't be sure! In a race this tight, it's a massive unknown.
These charts show how Trump is isolating the US on the world stage
These charts show how Trump is isolating the US on the world stage
Analysis shows that the world is moving closer to China, as Trump’s isolationism rears its head at the United Nations
theguardian.com
The untold story that is told constantly and isn’t really true
Macron desperately needs Trump to get interested in Réunion.
YouGov@yougov.co.uk · 6mo agoHow popular are European leaders in their own countries? (9-27 Jan 2026) 🇩🇰 Frederiksen -8 net favourability (+21 from Dec) 🇮🇹 Meloni -22 (-1) 🇪🇸 Sánchez -31 (+5) 🇩🇪 Merz -43 (+1) 🇬🇧 Starmer -57 (+2) 🇫🇷 Macron -63 (=) yougov.co.uk/politics/art...
Which polling company does not include the Greens as an option?!? Which models include reassigning the answers of previous Labour voters?!? Please just ASK THE POLLING COMPANIES why there is a difference!
The Guardian@theguardian.com · 6mo agoThe Polanski effect? These charts reveal how much the Greens have advanced
Fascinating as usual from my colleague @jamesbreckwoldt.bsky.social. Come for the Simpsons memes, stay for the lesson in US political realignment.
James Breckwoldt@jamesbreckwoldt.bsky.social · 7mo agoI use @electionstudies.bsky.social data from 1972 to model how characters in The Simpsons would have voted in presidential elections It turns out to be very revealing about how the demographic coalitions of the Democratic and Republican parties have completely rearranged themselves...
I think it would be helpful if this article explained the difference between the single market and the customs union, and the implications for the UK. Instead, all of the analysis is through the lens of “who’s up, who’s down” cabinet Kremlinology.
Starmer says closer ties with EU single market preferable to a customs union
Prime minister gives clearest sign yet that government is seeking to further deepen Britain’s links with Brussels
theguardian.com
If you don't already read @jamesbreckwoldt.bsky.social's substack and you're into British politics, can I recommend doing so as a New Year's Resolution? Always enjoyable and thought provoking in equal measure - although maybe pass on this one if you're a Labour diehard and don't want to spoil NYEve!
Two Voting Predictions For 2026
One obvious, one with potential
jamesbreckwoldt.substack.com
Big new blogpost! My guide to data visualization, which includes a very long table of contents, tons of charts, and more. --> Why data visualization matters and how to make charts more effective, clear, transparent, and sometimes, beautiful. www.scientificdiscovery.dev/p/salonis-gu...
Somebody ctrl+f that one guy’s name when the files are released.
Acyn@acyn.bsky.social · 9mo agoBill to release the Epstein files passes the House 427 to 1
