🚨 And there we have it... Thanks to the Disclosure Avoidance Order, ACS 1-year data release is delayed. www.census.gov/newsroom/pre...

Census Bureau Releases Schedule for Income, Poverty and Health Insurance Statistics and Updates About the American Community Survey Estimates

The Census Bureau is set to release the 2025 Income, Poverty and Health Insurance statistics from the CPS ASEC.

census.gov

#econ_ra @jedkolko.bsky.social @piie.com www.linkedin.com/jobs/view/44...

New Report from my team at the JPMorganChase Institute! Targeting disaster relief: Who needs aid to weather the storm? Lots of people don't have an emergency fund to cover disaster expenses AND many have their incomes disrupted! Who needs aid? Report: www.jpmorganchase.com/institute/al...

Miami is the new San Francisco, with the highest out-migration rate of all large metros. jedkolko.substack.com/p/with-less-...

With less immigration, urban counties grew more slowly than suburbs, smaller metros, and rural areas in 2025. New Census data out this morning. jedkolko.substack.com/p/with-less-...

With Less Immigration, Urban Growth Slowed in 2025

Plus, revisions to 2022-2024 local population estimates were unusually large.

jedkolko.substack.com

Big immigration decline. Agreement among different agencies' estimates. Downward adjustments coming soon to the CPS. And revisions to state populations: New York up, Florida down. Key takeaways from today's new Census population estimates for 2025. jedkolko.substack.com/p/four-takea...

Four takeaways from the new Census population estimates

Immigration declined dramatically. Census estimates now align with other government estimates. The 2026 Current Population Survey population base will be adjusted downward.

jedkolko.substack.com

Census releases 2025 population & immigration estimates next Tuesday. Their webinar today described improvements to measuring (1) emigration in 2025 and (2) local immigration in 2022-2024. Also: Census hinted its 2025 estimates and 2026 projections will be "close" to CBOs.

With @stanveuger.bsky.social and @taraelizwatson.bsky.social, we have an update on our near-term immigration analysis under Trump. Here's our range of likely outcomes for breakeven employment. Could be negative **this year**. Full piece: www.brookings.edu/articles/mac...

Is anyone from the current Administration speaking at the #ASSA2026 conference?

Come for “mindless nitpicking” about immigration, tomorrow at 8 am at #ASSA2026 eppro01.ativ.me/appinfo.php?...

Joyce Meyer was confirmed as the Commerce Dept's Under Secretary for Economic Affairs. The position oversees the Census Bureau and the Bureau of Economic Analysis. The Administration has proposed moving the Bureau of Labor Statistics into Commerce under this position, too.

Republicans are more upbeat about the economy than Democrats are, but the industries Republicans are more likely to work in are losing jobs.

Wondering when you'll get your #BLS data?? The Friends of BLS have posted an FAQ about the impact of the shutdown on #BLSdata: www.friendsofbls.org/updates/2025... #econsky @aaronsojourner.org @betseystevenson.bsky.social @justinwolfers.bsky.social @jasonfurman.bsky.social @jedkolko.bsky.social

2025 Government Shutdown FAQs on BLS Data — The Friends of the Bureau of Labor Statistics

The Friends of BLS  The 2025 Government Shutdown and BLS Data: Questions & Answers How will the government shutdown, which may be over by the time you read this, affect BLS data? F...

friendsofbls.org

"Trade wars screw up other things." Senator Tim Kaine explained how, separately from the economy, Trump's trade war is complicating US relationships with allies in other spheres, like defense.

Some thoughts in lieu of this morning’s jobs report. open.substack.com/pub/jedkolko...

Requiem for a Jobs Report

Today marks the second missing jobs report. Damage is piling up

open.substack.com

Never a good sign when the best available data about the labor market is UI claims. (Though glad to have them.) Last time this happened: the three weeks from mid March to early April 2020, from when the pandemic shut everything down to the March jobs report publication.

Ben Casselman@bencasselman.bsky.social · 9mo ago

We now have unemployment claims data for all 50 states for the week ending 10/25. Still no sign of a big uptick in initial claims. (Note that these charts do NOT include federal workers -- see down thread for those.) #NumbersDay #EconSky

Thanks to the shutdown, we didn't get the first estimate of Q3 GDP today. And private-sector data offer no good substitute for official GDP. The shutdown offers lots of lessons about what private sector data can and can't do. New at @piie.com : www.piie.com/blogs/realti...

What the government shutdown teaches us about private sector data

The government shutdown provides an unexpected test case for an increasingly urgent question: What would happen if official economic statistics became less useful, whether through declining resources,...

piie.com

Is the payroll data that ADP just announced they're publishing weekly the same or different from what ADP was sharing with the @federalreserve.gov until recently? (And, if different, how?)

Global growth holds up despite policy headwinds and rising risks - New blog by Karen Dynan Latest global economic propsects from @piie.com www.piie.com/blogs/realti...

Global growth holds up despite policy headwinds and rising risks

The global economy is growing more strongly than expected this year, despite rising trade tensions and high uncertainty around US economic policy. Optimism about artificial intelligence (AI), particul...

piie.com

EJ Antoni nomination to lead BLS is withdrawn. www.cnn.com/2025/09/30/p...

White House withdraws Trump’s controversial nominee to lead BLS after ousting predecessor over jobs data | CNN Politics

The White House has sent paperwork to the Senate to withdraw the nomination of E.J. Antoni as head of the Bureau of Labor Statistics, three sources told CNN.

cnn.com

12 Senators want to know the Administration's plans for federal #statistics by 10/6. “The integrity of America’s #economicdata is fundamental to our economic prosperity and global leadership – it is not a partisan issue...” www.banking.senate.gov/imo/media/do... #econsky

DHS has just claimed that 1.6 million unauthorized immigrant "self deported" this year. This number seems to come from a Center for Immigration Studies estimate that relies on the Current Population Survey. As @jedkolko.bsky.social writes, such a large decline doesn't line up with other data

That reported multi-million decline in US immigrants just doesn’t add up

The recent Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) data showing that there were 2.2 million fewer immigrants in the US in July 2025 than in January is almost certainly wrong.

piie.com

Please consider joining live tomorrow! My guest Oleksandra Azarkhina is among the best experts for a forward-looking discussion of Ukraine's prospects as a (potential) future member of the European Union.

Peterson Institute for International Economics@piie.com · 11mo ago

TOMORROW: @veron.bsky.social hosts a new virtual series & podcast What now, Europe?—chatting with experts & practitioners on Europe's future in a turbulent new era. Participate live or subscribe wherever you get podcasts: https://www.piie.com/events/2025/ukraines-future-european-union

Update: The Consumer Expenditure Survey is being delayed ~5 weeks, with no impact on the CPI weights, and for good technical reasons.

Jed Kolko@jedkolko.bsky.social · 11mo ago

The BLS is NOT postponing the monthly inflation report, the Consumer Price Index (CPI). Rather, the delay is for the annual Consumer Expenditure Survey (CEX). CEX provides the "weights" for the CPI and other inflation measures.

The BLS is NOT postponing the monthly inflation report, the Consumer Price Index (CPI). Rather, the delay is for the annual Consumer Expenditure Survey (CEX). CEX provides the "weights" for the CPI and other inflation measures.

There are no politicals at BLS now. No BLSers have leaked about pressure on the CEX or other work at BLS. And this release is likely too low-profile to warrant meddling. So, I don’t think that the issue is pressure. The shortage of funding and staffing —also nefarious—is a more likely cause.

#BLS has delayed the 2024 Consumer Expenditures Survey annual release. This is likely due to the severe understaffing in the agency. Staff losses and hiring freeze are taking their toll. www.bls.gov/cex/notices/... #econsky

Consumer Expenditures 2024 Data Release to be Rescheduled

Consumer Expenditures 2024 Data Release to be Rescheduled (9/19/2025)

bls.gov

Why do businesses need credible official economic data? Come find out! 2:30 today, @brookings.edu -- in-person and virtual www.brookings.edu/events/the-i...

The importance of credible government economic data to business | Brookings

On September 18, Brookings will host former BLS commissioners, government officials, private-sector leaders, and economists to discuss data integrity.

brookings.edu

Steve Moore (!): Trump aims to bolster U.S. manufacturing—in part through steel and aluminum tariffs. But ...Trump’s order to raise the tax on imported aluminum to 50% will almost certainly cost far more manufacturing jobs than it will save. www.wsj.com/opinion/trum...

Opinion | Trump’s Tariffs on Aluminum Kill U.S. Factory Jobs

They’re costly for companies that use the metal to make things—including recyclers.

wsj.com

The Fed expects slower GDP growth than the White House does -- especially 2026 onward. One Fed participant projects GDP growth of 2.6-2.7% in 2026, 2027, and 2028, but none projects GDP growth as high as the White House does.