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Wendy Edelberg

@wendyedelberg.bsky.social

Senior Fellow in Economic Studies at Brookings. Previously, director of The Hamilton Project at Brookings and before that chief economist of CBO.

214 Posts5789 Follower205 Folgt
Wendy Edelberg@wendyedelberg.bsky.social · 3w ago

I don’t get Warsh on oil. If oil prices rise, prices of oil-intensive goods should rise too. The Fed should look through that relative-price shift & accept resulting fall in real wages. If it tries to prevent the price adjustment, it has to weaken demand. Warsh seems to want one without the other.

Wendy Edelberg@wendyedelberg.bsky.social · last mo.

Just said on @cnbc.com I think Fed *should* hike at next meeting. That's for a few reasons, including maintaining Fed credibility. What I didn't say was: I don't think Fed *will* hike at the next meeting. (Also said strong Aug emp growth looks out of sync with other labor market indicators.)

Wendy Edelberg@wendyedelberg.bsky.social · 3mo ago

If the employment story in payroll survey is the right one, where are all these workers coming from? And, I don't see evidence of a much stronger labor market than last in year in other indicators: wages, the quit rate, participation, the work work...All in all, the HH survey makes more sense to me.

Wendy Edelberg@wendyedelberg.bsky.social · 3mo ago

Puzzle continues: Payroll Survey & Household Survey show different labor markets. Payroll: emp growth has soared since last year. HH: emp is *down* (changes in population controls complicate comparisons to 2025). Strong emp didn't lower UR; it fell because emp shrank by less than labor force did.

Wendy Edelberg@wendyedelberg.bsky.social · 3mo ago

Puzzle continues: Payroll Survey & Household Survey show different labor markets. Payroll: emp growth has soared since last year. HH: emp is *down* (changes in population controls complicate comparisons to 2025). Strong emp didn't lower UR; it fell because emp shrank by less than labor force did.

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Wendy Edelberg@wendyedelberg.bsky.social · 4mo ago

Core goods prices are up 1.1% from last May. Maybe that doesn't sound big - and it isn't compared to COVID days - but these are prices that *fall* frequently in normal times. Tariffs aren't done pushing up goods prices. And now energy prices are making manufacturing and delivery more expensive.

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Wendy Edelberg@wendyedelberg.bsky.social · 4mo ago

Emp growth is much stronger in payroll survey than household survey. Emp since Jan has *fallen* in HH survey. Sure, surveys can move apart, like when HH survey didn't reflect immigration surge. But, the sharp increase in gap is hard to understand. Since 1994, only 4 yrs had bigger widening Jan-May.

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Wendy Edelberg@wendyedelberg.bsky.social · 6mo ago

I’ve pondered how (not if) Trump will impose his will on the Fed if Warsh doesn’t want to or can’t cut rates. Maybe part of Trump’s plan is to keep the reno investigation & broaden beyond Powell just to keep DoJ folks hanging around with the threat of criminal charges against someone at the Fed?

Wendy Edelberg@wendyedelberg.bsky.social · 6mo ago

I think the most important number from the BEA this morning was goods inflation. Excluding gasoline, goods prices rose 0.7% from January to February. That is a very large price increase for a category that in normal times is often negative. Tariffs are nowhere near done pushing up prices.

Wendy Edelberg@wendyedelberg.bsky.social · 8mo ago

I am confused by the argument AI means the Fed should cut rates. But, I guess the idea is AI will mean a whole lot of underused resources (eg labor) so the Fed will need to stimulate demand to convince employers to hire & invest. That’s a depressing world. And rate cuts won’t work in the long run.

Wendy Edelberg@wendyedelberg.bsky.social · 8mo ago

Join us in a few minutes for what I know will be an incredible event on supply-side factors and inflation: www.brookings.edu/events/suppl... We have an amazing line up: Peter Orszag, Vice Chair Phillip Jefferson, 3 newly published papers and their authors, and more.

Supply-side factors and inflation: What have we learned? | Brookings

On February 6, Brookings will convene an event to examine the relationship between supply-side factors and inflation.

brookings.edu

Wendy Edelberg@wendyedelberg.bsky.social · 9mo ago

Let’s stop with the breathlessness about bond yields. Bond markets looked at events over the weekend and said: We demand an additional 5 basis points! The confidence that everything will be okay is just mystifying.

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Wendy Edelberg@wendyedelberg.bsky.social · 9mo ago

I am not sure how to wrap my head around this, but yesterday @jimmykimmel.com referenced the net immigration numbers that @stanveuger.bsky.social and @taraelizwatson.bsky.social and I just published. See the report here: www.brookings.edu/articles/mac...

Trump Wants Greenland Whether They Like it Or Not, Lindsey Graham Bombshell & FCC Chair Testifies

Today was the first day you could register to get tickets to the 2028 Summer Olympics in Los Angeles, Trump is on a new crusade to take over Greenland, Marco Rubio has been put in charge of coming up with a plan to purchase it, we are operating at peak hypocrisy right now as we violently stifle protests while also warning Iran not to violently stifle protests, Oklahoma Senator Markwayne Mullin isn’t sure if he is for or against regime change there, we got a new photograph of Trump giving the finger to a Ford worker who called him a “pedophile protector,” Trump fell asleep again during a press conference, Lindsey Graham gave sworn testimony after the 2020 election saying Trump lost even though he was on Fox News saying just the opposite, FCC Chairman Brendan Carr testified in front of the House Energy and Commerce subcommittee today, and PBS has some news for people who think they're going off the air. SUBSCRIBE to get the latest #Kimmel: http://bit.ly/JKLSubscribe Follow Jimmy Kimmel on Instagram: https://bit.ly/KimmelInstagram Follow Jimmy Kimmel Live on Instagram: http://bit.ly/JKLInstagram Follow Jimmy Kimmel Live on TikTok: https://bit.ly/JKLTikTok Like Jimmy Kimmel on Facebook: http://bit.ly/KimmelFB Like Jimmy Kimmel Live on Facebook: http://bit.ly/JKLFacebook Visit the Jimmy Kimmel Live Website : http://bit.ly/JKLWebsite About Jimmy Kimmel Live: Jimmy Kimmel serves as host and executive producer of Emmy® nominated “Jimmy Kimmel Live,” ABC’s late-night talk show. “Jimmy Kimmel Live” is well known for its viral video successes, with over 16 billion views and more than 19 million subscribers on the show’s YouTube channel. Some of Kimmel’s most popular comedy bits include Celebrities Read Mean Tweets, Lie Witness News, Halloween Candy YouTube Challenge, Jimmy and Cousin Sal pranking Aunt Chippy and music stars like Rihanna and Dua Lipa surprising Jimmy in the middle of the night.

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Wendy Edelberg@wendyedelberg.bsky.social · 9mo ago

I am not sure how to wrap my head around this, but yesterday @jimmykimmel.com referenced the net immigration numbers that @stanveuger.bsky.social and @taraelizwatson.bsky.social and I just published. See the report here: www.brookings.edu/articles/mac...

Trump Wants Greenland Whether They Like it Or Not, Lindsey Graham Bombshell & FCC Chair Testifies

Today was the first day you could register to get tickets to the 2028 Summer Olympics in Los Angeles, Trump is on a new crusade to take over Greenland, Marco Rubio has been put in charge of coming up with a plan to purchase it, we are operating at peak hypocrisy right now as we violently stifle protests while also warning Iran not to violently stifle protests, Oklahoma Senator Markwayne Mullin isn’t sure if he is for or against regime change there, we got a new photograph of Trump giving the finger to a Ford worker who called him a “pedophile protector,” Trump fell asleep again during a press conference, Lindsey Graham gave sworn testimony after the 2020 election saying Trump lost even though he was on Fox News saying just the opposite, FCC Chairman Brendan Carr testified in front of the House Energy and Commerce subcommittee today, and PBS has some news for people who think they're going off the air. SUBSCRIBE to get the latest #Kimmel: http://bit.ly/JKLSubscribe Follow Jimmy Kimmel on Instagram: https://bit.ly/KimmelInstagram Follow Jimmy Kimmel Live on Instagram: http://bit.ly/JKLInstagram Follow Jimmy Kimmel Live on TikTok: https://bit.ly/JKLTikTok Like Jimmy Kimmel on Facebook: http://bit.ly/KimmelFB Like Jimmy Kimmel Live on Facebook: http://bit.ly/JKLFacebook Visit the Jimmy Kimmel Live Website : http://bit.ly/JKLWebsite About Jimmy Kimmel Live: Jimmy Kimmel serves as host and executive producer of Emmy® nominated “Jimmy Kimmel Live,” ABC’s late-night talk show. “Jimmy Kimmel Live” is well known for its viral video successes, with over 16 billion views and more than 19 million subscribers on the show’s YouTube channel. Some of Kimmel’s most popular comedy bits include Celebrities Read Mean Tweets, Lie Witness News, Halloween Candy YouTube Challenge, Jimmy and Cousin Sal pranking Aunt Chippy and music stars like Rihanna and Dua Lipa surprising Jimmy in the middle of the night.

nam10.safelinks.protection.outlook.com

Catherine Wolfram@cwolfram.bsky.social · 10mo ago

Really enjoyed this conversation with @jc-econ.bsky.social and Seth Carpenter. Thanks to @wendyedelberg.bsky.social for expert moderation and @brookings.edu for hosting! The event has passed, but you can still watch the video.

MIT Climate Policy Center@mitclimatepolicy.bsky.social · 11mo ago

Today November 24, faculty member @cwolfram.bsky.social will join @brookings.edu for a timely conversation on the evolving supply-side forces shaping inflation. Click the link to register for this online event. buff.ly/zxvqIxd