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Jeff Carter
@jeffcarter.bsky.social
Researches and professes about international relations. “An incredibly average scholar.” Co-director of the Correlates of War project. Probably thinking about music, food, or the dog.
Superstar @wesleyanuniversity.bsky.social undergrad Angelina Kunitskaia pitched me this project as a first-year after reading Tomz & Weeks (2013) in my Intro IR class. Can media framing of a war shape the opinions of third-party publics without altering any facts or endorsements? A resounding YES.
Research & Politics@respol.bsky.social · 4w ago@kolbyhanson.bsky.social & Angelina Kunitskaia show that how wars are framed can strongly shape public sympathy and support for military aid—even when the underlying facts stay the same. Read more here: journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/...
There's not a scholar better suited for this position than @profpaulpoast.bsky.social.
Paul Poast@profpaulpoast.bsky.social · last mo.I officially started an important new research project this summer: becoming a data host for the Correlates of War! Specifically, I am now the curator for the COW data on interstate, intrastate, and extrastate wars.
I officially started an important new research project this summer: becoming a data host for the Correlates of War! Specifically, I am now the curator for the COW data on interstate, intrastate, and extrastate wars.
Florida State University’s political science department is hiring this year at the junior level in American Politics and Comparative Politics. Applicants for both jobs should have strong substantive and quant methods skills but otherwise the fields are open. The postings should be on ejobs soon.
Selection effects can go both ways (for taxi drivers as well as the rest of us) statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2026/07/28/s...
Selection effects can go both ways (for taxi drivers as well as the rest of us) | Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science
statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu
"Do the thing you can do instead of beating yourself up over not doing the thing you're not doing" is honestly life-changing, even life-saving, advice.
Leiracal@leiracal.bsky.social · last yr.This concept was introduced to me as "run the dishwasher twice" and was an important part of my executive functioning recovery as well as my path to self-acceptance.
We typically think of deterrence as cold and calculating. In a new JCR with @uoft-poli-sci.bsky.social's Pomeroy & Rathbun, we explore the psychology of deterrence thinking, showing it relies on intuition instead. When we shoot, we shoot from the hip. 🧵 journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/...
📢 JOB ANNOUNCEMENT 📢 Our department is hiring an Assistant Professor of Quantitative Political Science. We seek a scholar in AP, CP, PE, or IR who applies frontier methods of statistics and data science to substantive questions in their area of expertise. apply.interfolio.com/189477
Come work with me and Rachel and our great colleagues here at Notre Dame!
Rachel Porter@rachelporter.bsky.social · 2mo ago📢 JOB ANNOUNCEMENT 📢 Our department is hiring an Assistant Professor of Quantitative Political Science. We seek a scholar in AP, CP, PE, or IR who applies frontier methods of statistics and data science to substantive questions in their area of expertise. apply.interfolio.com/189477
to whom the Directors and the field at large are deeply grateful for their long, faithful service to COW's mission. So to our new Emeritus Data Hosts and, in advance, to our new Data Host, thank you. (2/2)
COW is excited to announce that @profpaulpoast.bsky.social of the University of Chicago is the new Data Host for our War Data, succeeding newly-minted Emeritus Data Hosts Meredith Sarkees, Frank Wayman, and Jeffrey Dixon, (1/2) correlatesofwar.org/news/paul-po...
Paul Poast succeeds Wayman, Sarkees, Dixon as COW War Data Host – The Correlates of War Project
The Correlates of War Project is pleased to announce that Paul Poast of the University of Chicago is the new Data Host for COW’s War Data, including Interstate, Intrastate, and Extrastate wars.
correlatesofwar.org
"The last building that was acceptable and necessary (my house) was completed four months ago, when I moved here. Yet ever since, the township keeps approving new housing projects. It’s as if our officials don’t consider my preferences for how many people should live in this town."
To Solve the Housing Crisis, We Simply Need to Build More Homes (Just Not in My Town)
“The last new building that was acceptable and necessary (my house) was completed four months ago, right when I moved here. Yet ever since, the township keep...
buff.ly
New NMC/CINC data is now available: correlatesofwar.org/data-sets/na...
National Material Capabilities (v7.0) – The Correlates of War Project
In any paper or publication that use this data set, users are asked to give the version number and cite an article of record for the data set as follows:
correlatesofwar.org
The Correlates of War Project@correlatesofwar.bsky.social · 3mo agoVersion 7 of COW's National Military Capabilities (NMC) Data is now available, taking the data up to 2022, thanks to the tireless and widely appreciated efforts of longtime Data Hosts Michael Greig and Andrew Enterline... (1/2) correlatesofwar.org/data-sets/na...
We're also pleased to announce that, beginning with version 8, NMC's new Data Host will be @johnchin.bsky.social. Welcome to the team, John! correlatesofwar.org/news/nmc-dat...
(NMC) Data v7 Available, New Data Host – The Correlates of War Project
This is the final update from longtime NMC hosts Michael Greig and Andrew Enterline, to whom COW and the discipline are grateful for years of work that has ensured reliable access to the CINC scores so ubiquitous in the study of war and peace. Michael and Andrew will each become Data Host Emeritus (about which more soon).
correlatesofwar.org
Version 7 of COW's National Military Capabilities (NMC) Data is now available, taking the data up to 2022, thanks to the tireless and widely appreciated efforts of longtime Data Hosts Michael Greig and Andrew Enterline... (1/2) correlatesofwar.org/data-sets/na...
National Material Capabilities (v7.0) – The Correlates of War Project
In any paper or publication that use this data set, users are asked to give the version number and cite an article of record for the data set as follows:
correlatesofwar.org
...with a new article of record at the Journal of Conflict Resolution by Data Hosts Jacob Gerner Hariri and Asger Mose Wingender. (2/2) doi.org/10.1177/0022...
Sage Journals: Discover world-class research
Subscription and open access journals from Sage, the world's leading independent academic publisher.
doi.org
New version (1.1) of the COW Arms Technology Data are now available... (1/2) correlatesofwar.org/news/arms-te...
Arms Technology Data (v1.1) available – The Correlates of War Project
correlatesofwar.org
🚨 Now out in @bjpols.bsky.social w @busbyj2.bsky.social @jordantama.bsky.social @ckafura.bsky.social: Do American foreign policy elites know what the public wants? Partnering with @global-affairs.bsky.social, we show that elites systematically misread the room 🧵 www.cambridge.org/core/journal...
Don’t. Print. Lies. In. The. Newspaper. “Guns vs. Butter” and rich countries with global reserve currencies edition. bsky.app/profile/mcop...
Jeff Carter@jeffcarter.bsky.social · 5mo agoThe New York Times has an article today on Europe facing a "guns vs. butter" problem (www.nytimes.com/2026/03/31/w...). A reminder that governments have other options to finance military spending. Others have made the same point, but here's some self-promotion: journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.1...)
The New York Times has an article today on Europe facing a "guns vs. butter" problem (www.nytimes.com/2026/03/31/w...). A reminder that governments have other options to finance military spending. Others have made the same point, but here's some self-promotion: journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.1...)
Guns, Butter, and Growth: The Consequences of Military Spending Reconsidered - Jeff Carter, Heather L. Ondercin, Glenn Palmer, 2021
How does increasing military spending affect social spending and economic growth? We argue leaders vary in their preferences over how to pay for military spendi...
journals.sagepub.com
One of the Trump admin’s explanations for striking Iran—preemption of an imminent attack—put me in mind of my article w/@yujimasumura.bsky.social at @ajpseditor.bsky.social, which examines when govts use the preemption casus belli and how publics react. (1/x) doi.org/10.1111/ajps...
A few more thoughts. USFP/natsec usually works from bottom up, even for prez-directed policies. Bureaucrats, mid-levels, political appointees work the problem, then top people bless it. Diplomacy (JCPOA) works like this. Military planning can move faster w/ prior plans, but similar. 1/
Elizabeth N. Saunders@profsaunders.bsky.social · 6mo agoQuick reactions after learning that no, nobody could stop him. 1/ goodauthority.org/news/trump-m... 1/
Quick reactions after learning that no, nobody could stop him. 1/ goodauthority.org/news/trump-m... 1/
Trump might start a war with Iran. Can anyone stop him?
Trump might start a war with Iran. Can anyone stop him? Congress, public opinion, and administration insiders aren’t reliable constraints on Trump’s foreign policy decisions.
goodauthority.org
From the introduction of McGillivray and Smith (2008, page 4):
Perennial reminder of this excellent paper about how secret police forces are swamped with underachievers “We don’t want clever people. We want mediocrities.” (Ungated summary here ajps.org/2019/10/08/w...)
Here is a thread about a true police-shooting incident that I'm going to use to pose a fun little thought problem for anyone anywhere who think there ia a single justifiable reason to ever allow a law enforcement officer to use force on a citizen and remain anonymous. From my back pages:
"Loss Framing in Territorial Disputes" by Andi Zhou, Hein Goemans, and Michael Weintraub. www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/10.1086/...
