Wrote about the new approaches people are taking to building climate models: km-resolution, automated tuning, ML emulators… Climate has benefited from having 10s of models to test and compare, now we have new dimensions of model diversity to learn from notesonclimate.substack.com/p/the-many-p...

The Many Possible Futures of Climate Models

Kilometer-scale models, machine learning and model diversity

notesonclimate.substack.com

Really excited to see this paper out!! Led by @vtcoop.bsky.social we show that if you use cold and warm paleoclimates together, you can reduce uncertainty in Earth's climate sensitivity by quantifying the pattern effect and more precisely constrain future climate change www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/...

Paleoclimate pattern effects help constrain climate sensitivity and 21st-century warming | PNAS

Paleoclimates provide examples of past climate change that inform estimates of modern warming from greenhouse-gas emissions, known as Earth’s clima...

pnas.org

🌊📉 Sea surface temperatures have… come back down. After the big global jump in 2023/24, SSTs are now back at below pre-jump levels in November (climatereanalyzer.org/clim/sst_dai...). Climate surprise or expected? What role does climate variability play? Let’s try to unpack 👇

📢 PhD opportunity! 🌊 “To collapse or not: the stability of the AMOC in a warming climate” Deadline: 8 Jan 2026 Work with Bristol, Liverpool & the Met Office on AMOC stability using observations, models & AI. Details: www.nercgw4plus.ac.uk/projects-202... Please share with anyone interested!

To collapse or not: the stability of the AMOC in a warming climate — NERC GW4+

Supervisor: Dr Rory Bingham Project keywords: climate, oceanography, AMOC, sea-level, AI

nercgw4plus.ac.uk

🌊🧊🇦🇶 I am happy and proud to present our #platformist team effort out in @nature.com! www.nature.com/articles/s41... We examine if, when, and why #Antarctic #ice shelves will no longer be viable, at the latest, due to changes in #atmosphere and #ocean conditions. A little 🧵 for the experts... 1/7

Ocean warming threatens the viability of 60% of Antarctic ice shelves - Nature

The viability of Antarctic ice shelves under low rates and high rates of global warming is modelled to estimate when it will become unfeasible for the ice shelves to maintain their present-day shape.

nature.com

📢 New paper out! 🌊 We discuss how well mechanisms of variability in the subpolar gyre are represented in climate models, finding that models that do this best are also the models in which abrupt shifts are found 😬. It's a technical story, so here's a simple overview 🧵 doi.org/10.5194/esd-...

Causal mechanisms of subpolar gyre variability in CMIP6 models

Abstract. The subpolar gyre is at risk of crossing a tipping point under future climate change associated with the collapse of deep convection. As such, tipping can have significant climate impacts; i...

doi.org

🚨PERMANENT POSITION OPENING🚨 A lecturer position is opening at LOCEAN on the topic: ‘Impact of climate change on marine ecosystems in the Southern Ocean’ (permanent position with the French Natural History Museum, for a researcher that will be based at LOCEAN, in the centre of Paris).

By linking Antarctic sea ice, cloud cover, deep ocean temperatures, and global warming, our new study led by @linusvogt.bsky.social finds that ocean heat uptake and thermal sea level rise by 2100 could be 3–14% higher, and global surface warming 3–7% greater than previously thought👇

Linus Vogt@linusvogt.bsky.social · 10mo ago

🚨🌊 New highlight paper out today in Earth System Dynamics! We find an observational constraint implying more future global ocean heat uptake, cloud feedback, and warming than the CMIP6 mean. This contrasts with previous estimates based on past warming trends. 🔗 esd.copernicus.org/articles/16/...

🚨🌊 New highlight paper out today in Earth System Dynamics! We find an observational constraint implying more future global ocean heat uptake, cloud feedback, and warming than the CMIP6 mean. This contrasts with previous estimates based on past warming trends. 🔗 esd.copernicus.org/articles/16/...

Increased future ocean heat uptake constrained by Antarctic sea ice extent

Abstract. The ocean takes up over 90 % of the excess heat stored in the Earth system as a result of anthropogenic climate change, which has led to sea level rise and an intensification of marine extre...

esd.copernicus.org

I had an engagement with blogger, failed California gubernatorial candidate, and self-identified reporter Michael Shellenberger this past week, which started out being about this new paper being heralded by climate skeptics as disproving global sea-level acceleration. (LONG 🧵)

🌊 Looking for a #postdoc to join us at @ipsl.bsky.social within the #ANR project #AIAI (AI to improve coupling between the Antarctic 🧊 and the 🌊/🌧️), a collaboration between @igegrenoble.bsky.social , @lsce-ipsl.bsky.social and #LOCEAN! Deadline: Aug 8th Apply here: emploi.cnrs.fr/Offres/CDD/U...

Paper just out in AI4Earth led by the incredible @eveapiedagnel.bsky.social. We show how to exploit the ocean’s tight T-S relationship at constant pressure to map trends in salinity from sparse data doi.org/10.1175/AIES.... GMM works well because the relationships are so linear, but why are they?

1. Kevin Gross and I just posted a new science-of-science preprint. This one explores the looming peer review crisis. As many of you know, it's becoming significantly more difficult for journal editors to find scholars willing to serve as peer reviewers for submitted manuscripts.

Will anyone review this paper? Screening, sorting, and the feedback cycles that imperil peer review

Scholarly publishing relies on peer review to identify the best science. Yet finding willing and qualified reviewers to evaluate manuscripts has become an increasingly challenging task, possibly even ...

arxiv.org

⏰ Free access to read & download thru August 20 the final published version of Wendy Parker & my paper "Understanding Data Uncertainty" at this link ⬇️ authors.elsevier.com/c/1lMUI8yuR6... #philsci #metasci 🧪 ⚒️

Do bubbles matter for ocean carbon uptake? 🌊🫧 Yes, especially for local CO2 fluxes, where wave breaking can enhance variability by up to 40%. That’s an important consideration for #mCDR, where fluxes could otherwise be miscalculated. More in our paper here: [https://doi.org/10.1029/2024GB008382]

Influence of Wave‐Induced Variability on Ocean Carbon Uptake

Wave effects introduce high-frequency variability and amplify the air-sea CO2 flux seasonality, with the largest impacts during storms Wave effects enhance carbon storage and amplify hemispheric ...

agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com

New paper alert! 🌊 What processes control the efficiency of ocean heat uptake under CO₂ forcing? We show that Southern Ocean stratification and overturning are key, check out our publication in Ocean Science here: doi.org/10.5194/os-2... More details below 🧵👇

Stratification and overturning circulation are intertwined controls on ocean heat uptake efficiency in climate models

Abstract. The global ocean takes up over 90 % of the excess heat added to the climate system due to anthropogenic emissions, thereby buffering climate change at Earth's surface. A key metric for quant...

doi.org

📢 New paper alert! 📢 New insight into how sea ice controls the ocean uptake of carbon dioxide around Antarctica, obtained from the unique year-round Rothera Time Series. Delighted to be part of this study, led by the very excellent Elise Droste. 🧪❄️🥼🌊 www.nature.com/articles/s43...

Sea ice controls net ocean uptake of carbon dioxide by regulating wintertime stratification - Communications Earth & Environment

Interannual variability of ocean uptake of carbon dioxide is governed by winter sea ice cover, according to analysis of carbonate chemistry observations along the West Antarctic Peninsula.

nature.com

Last day at the GISS building (Wed. May 28th). 🥲

Great panel discussion, although sad that this was probably my first and last time visiting this venue (for the foreseeable future)

Thomas Frölicher@froeltho.bsky.social · last yr.

Really enjoyed the discussion on communicating tipping points at NASA GISS! It’s a tough topic, but I agree with the panel—we can do better than we have so far. Thanks for organizing it @aromanou.bsky.social and colleagues!

Interested in the freshwater distribution and variability in the Southern Ocean 🌊 ? Come by my #EGU25 presentation where I will show new insights from oxygen stable isotopes! 🗓️: Monday April 28 🕰️: 14:32 - 14:42 ⛓️‍💥: meetingorganizer.copernicus.org/EGU25/EGU25-...

🌊 The N.Atlantic has been experiencing extreme T°C in 2023. This situation raises a number of questions: Have we missed something? Do climate models allow us to understand such an event, or have we entered a new climate regime? We attempted to answer these questions in this study: rdcu.be/eh0e8 1/14

Internal variability effect doped by climate change drove the 2023 marine heat extreme in the North Atlantic

Communications Earth & Environment - The 2023 North Atlantic marine heatwave was driven by an extreme phase of internal atmospheric variability but would have been impossible without the doping...

rdcu.be

A new estimate of the composite model-based estimate of the annually averaged ocean carbon sink. 🌊 This composite model-based estimate of the ocean carbon sink from 1959 to 2022 is similar in magnitude to the best estimate of the Global Carbon Budget but 70 % less uncertain.

Composite model-based estimate of the ocean carbon sink from 1959 to 2022

Abstract. The ocean takes up around one-quarter of anthropogenically emitted carbon and is projected to remain the main carbon sink once global temperatures stabilize. Despite the importance of this n...

bg.copernicus.org

Key takeaways from our study on the record-breaking global sea surface temperature jump in 2023-24: • A rare 1-in-512-year event • Only possible due to human-caused global warming • Climate models capture it—no signs of unexpected climate change More details below 👇

Jens Terhaar@polarocean.bsky.social · last yr.

Why have the sea surface temperature suddenly risen in 2023/24? 🌊 Is it true that climate models cannot simulate such SST jumps? What is common to such jumps? How will SSTs evolve over the next months and years? Are we in uncharted territory? More from our recent study in Nature is here👇

Why have the sea surface temperature suddenly risen in 2023/24? 🌊 Is it true that climate models cannot simulate such SST jumps? What is common to such jumps? How will SSTs evolve over the next months and years? Are we in uncharted territory? More from our recent study in Nature is here👇

Record sea surface temperature jump in 2023–2024 unlikely but not unexpected - Nature

Observations and climate models suggest that the global sea surface temperature jump in 2023–2024 was not unexpected and would have been nearly impossible without anthropogenic warming.

nature.com

🌊 🚨 Postdoc position alert 🚨 🌊 Optimizing Southern Ocean Carbon Sink Observations Using Autonomous Floats ( @bgc-argo.bsky.social ) Supervisors: JB Sallée ; Collaboration: H. Claustre ; P. Landschutzer ; E. McDonagh Location: IPSL (LOCEAN), Paris, Fr emploi.cnrs.fr/Offres/CDD/U...

PostdocCNRM_Overturning

— 2-year Postoc opportunity — The Future Evolution of Global Ocean Overturning Cells at Different Global Warming Levels Deadline for application : 1 April 2025 Supervisors: Jean-Baptiste Sallée, Rola...

docs.google.com

🌊 🚨 Postdoc position alert 🚨 🌊 The Future Evolution of Global Ocean Overturning Cells at Different Global Warming Levels (2 years) Deadline for application: 1 April 2025 Supervisors: Jean-Baptiste Sallée, Roland Séférian Location: CNRM, Toulouse, France More info: docs.google.com/document/d/1...

Listen back to the GO2NE webinar 34, where I discussed our latest research into the drivers of recent global #ocean #deoxygenation 🌊 Thanks to the #GO2NE team for hosting me! 📽️ youtu.be/i3zc1bjcFDI?... 📄 www.nature.com/articles/s41...

GOOD - UN Ocean Decade@good-ocean-oxy.bsky.social · 2y ago

Listen back to #GO2NE webinar 34 with Helene Hollitzer, Taka Ito and Andreas Oschlies here! 📽️ www.youtube.com/watch?v=i3zc... #ocean #deoxygenation

Has the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) weakened over the last decades? In our new study, we combine state-of-the-art CMIP6 models and observation-based estimates of the air-sea heat flux in the North Atlantic to show that the AMOC has not declined since the 1960s! 🌊

Atlantic overturning inferred from air-sea heat fluxes indicates no decline since the 1960s - Nature Communications

The AMOC is crucial for the global ocean overturning circulation and controls the climate around the North Atlantic. Here, the authors use 24 Earth System Models from the CMIP6 to demonstrate tha...

nature.com

Please join me in congratulating @manonberger.bsky.social in her successful PhD defense at @geosciences.bsky.social. She showed that growing seaweed (macroalgae) is not an effective way to remove atmospheric CO₂. 🌊

Marine heatwaves (MHWs) don’t just harm ecosystems—they also alter the ocean’s carbon cycle! Our new analysis of 30 global datasets shows ocean CO₂ uptake drops by 8% during MHWs, with regional anomalies reaching up to 30%. 🌊