The latest El Niño forecast by the ECM is suggesting a record shattering +4°C event. Impacts; - Record breaking global warmth (1.7-1.8°C) - Catastrophic marine heatwaves Potential to be one of the most disruptive climate anomalies we’ve ever observed.
Lucy Pick
@lucykpick.bsky.social
Medieval historian by day, historical novelist by night. My historical novel #Pilgrimage is now out from Cuidono Press. Jackal. Princess. She/her. Banner is Muhammed Sami.
FLAG: Trump gets to keep tax immunity for himself, his sons, and the Trump Organization under the new 'deal' struck by Todd Blanche. The new order also reaffirms that Trump won't have to pay any taxes he might have owed the IRS.
That post on the decline of American housewares on the blog about enshittification that everyone here reposted was written by Ai, so this tracks.
I think my most genuinely unpopular take is that a widely held and genuine consumer preference for cheaper, lower-quality goods, not private equity, is driving the decline in quality of consumer goods like clothing and housewares.
RFK Jr and wife had a soiree at their Hollywood mansion during COVID and required proof of COVID vaccination with RSVP. Watch what they do, not what they say. –Rachel Maddow
I'm not sure folks have realized just how crazy the second half of 2026 and 2027 will be for global temperatures – on the back of a record-smashing El Niño event. Here is my latest estimate of where both years will end up compared to global temperatures since 1850.
Very much worth remembering, as Miller accuses his wife of being crazy and making up lies to paint him as an abuser, that he dated Stephanie Grisham years ago and she accused him of physical abuse back then.
Guys, the best weapons to protect your neighbors from ICE are NOT GUNS They are CAMERAS, WHISTLES, and a well-organized RAPID RESPONSE AND NEIGHBORHOOD WATCH SYSTEM. ICE is better-armed than you'll ever be. But they like to rely on secrecy, and you can make it much harder for them to be secret.
Don’t use AI, kids. Besides, reading it makes me feel itchy.
I've written a longer piece on the book that's been pulled due to "AI" use allegations, what that means particularly for newer authors, and what, if anything writers can do in the "AI" era to prove their work is their own: whatever.scalzi.com/2026/07/31/a...
A concentration camp is a place where people whose very existence is deemed a crime are imprisoned.
"A concentration camp, in its most basic definition, is a place where a targeted civilian population, not necessarily accused of a crime, is detained and at least some of their basic rights are suspended," writes @jwashing.bsky.social. "That’s precisely what’s happening in the United States today."
This Carney-Stubb op-ed articulates a new western middle power view of multipolarity that I think doesn’t have a meaningful pre-2025 antecedent; questionable how durable this will end up being www.economist.com/by-invitatio...
Prepare for a world of ad hoc coalitions
Neither wishful multilateralism nor cold realpolitik will do. Mark Carney and Alexander Stubb suggest a third way
economist.com
Jobs For Medievalists Andrew W. Mellon Humanities Professor Rome, Italy Reports to: Director Term: Three-year appointment, renewable for up to two additional years. https://www.themedievalacademyblog.org/9852-2/
I’m going to be sick. Even the photo they chose — I painted in that exact spot during a concert one of my summers. From the 1970s to the 2010s, which includes the three years I attended. When my friends were there. Back to when some of their *parents* were campers. www.mlive.com/news/2026/07...
Epstein, 46 others linked to decades of sex assaults at Interlochen, over 70 victims
An investigative report two years in the making was released Tuesday, July 28, detailing decades of sexual abuse at Interlochen Center for the Arts by staff, trustees, visiting artists and Jeffrey Eps...
mlive.com
If someone invades your country you should shoot them, is a pretty basic idea. Only americans would think about it as "well you have to be nice to us so we can unfuck this"
We found that the sepsis rate in second-trimester pregnancy loss hospitalizations increased by more than 50% under Texas’ abortion ban. Here’s how we did our analysis. (Published Feb. 2025)
Texas Won’t Study How Its Abortion Ban Impacts Women, So We Did
Since Texas banned abortion, no one has studied the statewide effects on pregnant women experiencing complications. Here’s how we sifted through data on millions of pregnancy hospitalizations and anal...
propublica.org
Old news now but I believe this soft-focus wide-eyed uncritical puff piece of an article did a ton of work in mainstreaming Platner. (My reaction to it was: he’s on full disability with a TBI and yet thinks he can do the work of a senator?)
This story has it all: aquaculture, Black Flag, Bernie Sanders, Star Trek as policy, John Hodgman, male tears, and a candidate citing Luthen’s monologue from Andor. Meet Graham Platner, the Maine oysterman trying to crack the senate. @grahamformaine.bsky.social newrepublic.com/article/1996...
If you’re picking fights with Canadians, you don’t have a friend in the world.
Unai Simon barely looks at Trump, then gives Carney a big hug.
Probably more helpful to think of them not so much as “Canadian wildfires” but rather “climate change wildfires currently consuming Canada”
Says the nation that has cancelled all the wind and solar projects it could, the nation that has emitted more carbon than any other since the 1750s.
"If Canada will not manage its forests to prevent these fires, the United States will look elsewhere, and act on our own, to protect our people,” said a group of U.S. lawmakers. globalnews.ca/news/1196860...
Recherches de Théologie et Philosophie Médiévales Vol. 93, No. 1 (2026) poj.peeters-leuven.be/content.php?... @peeterspublishers.bsky.social @thomas-institut.bsky.social @lucykpick.bsky.social Miscellanea Averroica
... "U.S. foreign policy right now: 'We want to cut you loose, but we don’t want you to cut us loose..'" Senior Trump official calls ‘middle powers’ strategy waste of time, money www.theglobeandmail.com/politics/art...
Senior Trump official calls ‘middle powers’ strategy waste of time, money
Elbridge Colby dismisses idea allies might turn their back on purchase of U.S. military gear
theglobeandmail.com
Right. I believe in civic culture, that's real. But you get your civic culture from your neighbors, your schools, your media. Not your genes. Surround a Somali kid with liberal democracy and he becomes a liberal democrat; surround a law professor with fascists and he becomes a fascist.
It may take a series of contingent events to get to the point that a culture develops liberal democratic ideals and institutions, but once you have them, culture transmits on a much shorter timescale. It's not *genetic*. There are people who believe it is, and Wurman could be one of them, though.
🔥The Armed Forces of Ukraine breached the defense 25 km deep into the occupied territories, – Army Inform. The "Skelya" Regiment liberated six villages in the Dnipropetrovsk region: Ternove, Zaporizhzhia, Novogeorgiyivka, Vorone, Sichneve, and Malivka.
Oh, you want to know how much willpower it takes me, a Canadian, not to buy any produce at all from the US? None at all. Very easy.