Matt

@machs.bsky.social

🚨 Last month set a new record for the hottest average global sea surface temperature in the month of July! Record warmth is found in both the deeper ocean and at the surface. This isn't necessarily a surprise, but it will have consequences for around the world. Data in the graphic from NOAA ERRSTv6

Green line graph time series of average sea surface temperature anomalies for each July from 1900 through 2026. There is large interannual variabaility, but an overall long-term increasing trend. Anomalies are computed relative to a 1981-2010 baseline.

Climate change never ignites a fire. That’s almost always humans or lightning. But it’s clear when we examine the data that climate heating sets the table for fires that burn faster and larger. Since the 1980s temperatures during fire season in the Pacific NW have warmed around 4°F… 1/

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"I was showing him, 'Look, just vegetables.' But he started diving straight at me." - Mr. Yurii, a survivor of the drone attack, recounted arriving in Kherson this morning to sell vegetables. His wife was with him. They were just unpacking their goods when a Russian drone hovered right over them.

2026 is on track to be the warmest (~35% chance) or second warmest (~63%) year on record, while 2027 is very likely (92% chance) to be the warmest on record on the back of a growing super El Niño event. For more, check out my new Carbon Brief State of the Climate Q2 update: www.carbonbrief.org/...

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El Niño keeps overachieving. We’re headed for uncharted territory! The clue as to how strong an El Niño will be is in the subsurface water of the deep Tropical Pacific. And it’s on fire 🔥, so to speak. This visual is based on real data and 3D helps us visualize… 1/

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Mise à jour annuelle du dossier «Montréal est à feu et à sang». Comparaison du taux de criminalité des principales régions urbaines au Canada. (Cherchez en bas du tableau pour le Québec)

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Climate change does not cause wildfires, but hot and dry conditions make them much more likely to spread. In Canada, 9 of the 10 worst wildfire years were both dryer and hotter than normal. And these fires are burning in areas that were historically not managed or suppressed.

It’s crazy that the same area had a 1000 yr rain last July. I don’t think a 1000 years has passed (although now-a-days every year feels like a 1000 years 😢) A 1000 yr means it has a 1-in-1000 chance of occurring in any given year, but our now warmer climate makes it that much more common.

Jeff Berardelli @weatherprof.bsky.social · 3w ago

1-in-1000 year rain event again with nearly 30” peak rain. This time #Texas. Flash #Flood Emergency in Texas Hill Country - #Uvalde area. 14” in #Kerrville in 24 hours. More heavy, training #rain is moving in now! Guadalupe River rose 30 feet in just 2 hrs! Be safe all!

An Ocean heatwave larger than the surface of the Moon! SOUND UP! The Pacific Ocean is having a huge heatwave. Most of the central and eastern Tropical Pacific is record hot. The centerpiece is the strongest El Niño ever measured. We’ve already reached Super El Niño SST threshold, and 1/

Why is AC so rare in much of Europe? Well, until recently it simply wasn't hot enough to need it. Here is the average number of days above 30C (86F) for major cities over time:

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To say El Niño is at record intensity for July is really an understatement. It’s a full .6°C/ 1.1°F ahead of the old record in 2015 in the main ENSO 3.4 region. That’s immense… It’s 1.95°C above the 1990-2020 average already. So just a hair below “Super” (+2C) already… 1/

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