Michael Tippett 🎃
@mktippett.bsky.social
Minor bug fixes and performance improvements
I think we should also measure our success by whether what we do "enables people to understand and think more clearly and effectively about the world around us." I think that climate science was *already* struggling to measure success in this way, and the advent of LLMs will make this harder!
ENSO forecasts from individual models can be “idiosyncratic” and their average tends to be better. Here is the NMME multimodal mean dressed with a synthetic, performance-based 100-member ensemble (with code) github.com/mktippett/nm...
Michael Tippett 🎃@mktippett.bsky.social · 4w agoHere is one recipe for computing relative Nino-3.4 in models. Bonus content: plots of the latest NMME forecasts, skill scores, and yes, code github.com/mktippett/nm...
ENSO forecasts from individual models can be “idiosyncratic” and their average tends to be better. Here is the NMME multimodal mean dressed with a synthetic, performance-based 100-member ensemble (with code) github.com/mktippett/nm...
Michael Tippett 🎃@mktippett.bsky.social · 4w agoHere is one recipe for computing relative Nino-3.4 in models. Bonus content: plots of the latest NMME forecasts, skill scores, and yes, code github.com/mktippett/nm...
Come for SVD, stay for the ENSO-conditioned global mean temperature forecasts agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/...
Come for SVD, stay for the ENSO-conditioned global mean temperature forecasts agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/...
Synopsis: El Niño abides and will become more so www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ana...
cpc.ncep.noaa.gov
Here is one recipe for computing relative Nino-3.4 in models. Bonus content: plots of the latest NMME forecasts, skill scores, and yes, code github.com/mktippett/nm...
GitHub - mktippett/nmme-enso
Contribute to mktippett/nmme-enso development by creating an account on GitHub.
github.com
Richard Dixon@catinsight.bsky.social · 3mo agoFrom now until it peaks, I feel as though anyone posting an ENSO chart needs to a) clarify what the climatology that the anomaly is based upon is and b) when it's Relative ONI or an ONI index. Or everyone adopt the same calculation and contrast it historically to the same calculation.
A deep dive into the various factors favoring record heat in Europe & the US, including climate change, the jet stream configuration & to some extent, the strengthening El Niño . www.cnn.com/2026/07/01/c... Thx to @kimcobb.bsky.social @michaelemann.bsky.social @mktippett.bsky.social & others.
Cruel summer: Punishing heat waves hit Europe, US, with a preview of what’s to come | CNN
Summer has barely started in the Northern Hemisphere, but already it’s offering an oppressive preview of life on a hotter planet.
cnn.com
Yup. Without warning this morning Columbia University decided that no-cost adjuncts (like me and Ben) at LDEO weren’t wanted anymore.
New CPC ENSO forecast: 62% and 63% probability of ≥2.0°C during OND and NDJ www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ana...
In our seasonal forecast from 1 June 2026, we are introducing the Relative Niño indices. Recommended by @wmo-global.bsky.social, this is an additional measure of El Niño strength alongside more traditional Niño 3.4 SST anomalies. It's expected to be readily adopted. ➡️ www.ecmwf.int/en/about/med...
RONI forecasts showing less spread out than ONI ones? Fortuitous error cancelation? Unnamed models (NASA) looking like less of an outlier. All from nmme.earth.miami.edu/figures/inde...
RONI forecasts showing less spread out than ONI ones? Fortuitous error cancelation? Unnamed models (NASA) looking like less of an outlier. All from nmme.earth.miami.edu/figures/inde...
How does the GFDL SPEAR Large Ensemble project tropical cyclones to change under warming? Short answer: fewer storms globally, but each is projected to be wetter and bigger. w @mktippett.bsky.social @scamargo.bsky.social Read more in Earth's Future: agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/...
Historical and Projected Tropical Cyclone Characteristics in SPEAR Large Ensemble Simulations
TC genesis is projected to decrease, with a poleward shift in activity regions Climatological TC precipitation (TCP) is projected to decrease, while precipitation rate per TC and TCP size increas...
agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com
The ABCs of risk management are not Always Be Correlating
Lauren Rosenthal@laurenthal.bsky.social · 2mo agoEveryone's talking about what it means for the data center boom. But with its deal to buy Dominion, NextEra is also picking up territory in states where extreme weather has caused more than $57 billion in damage over the last 5 years (gift link) www.bloomberg.com/news/newslet...
Relative Nino-3.4 (a little better than vanilla Nino-3.4 for Atlantic TC in ASO) moves in positive territory. Note the reduced activity and spread for warm ENSO conditions
Kim Wood@drkimwood.bsky.social · 3mo agoRelative sea surface temperatures (SSTs) on a daily basis for 2026 (through 17 May), 2015, 1997, and 1982. The latter three years are shown as points of comparison given that they were also El Niño onset years.
Mega-El Niño, bonkers El Niño, pick your superlative: We may have a big 'un arriving soon. But if so, does that mean the effects will be bigger? Or just more probable? Or does it "depend"? Answers to these and other Qs: @climateconnections.bsky.social yaleclimateconnections.org/2026/05/what...
What's a 'super El Niño'? And other El Niño questions, answered » Yale Climate Connections
The likelihood of certain outcomes may get a big boost, but surprises can still happen, especially in a warming climate.
yaleclimateconnections.org
With a FMA RONI of -0.48, ENSO shifts into neutral territory
Michael Tippett 🎃@mktippett.bsky.social · 4mo agoJFM 2026 RONI weighs in at -0.72 as cool ENSO conditions continue
Awaiting the May update to the Multi Model ensemble for the 2026 Global Mean Temperature: at the start of April, the median forecast for 2026 was around +1.55, equal to the 2024 record. nmme.earth.miami.edu/figures/inde...
ECMWF data store – new portal for S2S & TIGGE data access ecds.ecmwf.int
ECMWF Data Store
ecds.ecmwf.int
Divino Moura (1944–2026) founding director of the IRI (hired me) and all-around climate prediction pioneer www.gov.br/inpe/pt-br/a...
Homenagem a Antonio Divino Moura, um pilar da meteorologia brasileira
Pesquisador do INPE, ex-diretor do Inmet e referência internacional em clima e sociedade, Antonio Divino Moura (1944-2026) deixa contribuição indelével à ciência no Brasil
gov.br
JFM 2026 RONI weighs in at -0.72 as cool ENSO conditions continue
Michael Tippett 🎃@mktippett.bsky.social · 5mo agoI was told "We need a climate stripes for ENSO"
An actuary, a lawyer, and a climate risk scientist walk into a bar (meet on Zoom). This is the result: eartharxiv.org/repository/v...
Stress testing insurance market stability under climate risk
eartharxiv.org
is there place to download a reasonably updated archive of daily RMM12? Or should I be using another MJO index? this seems to end in 2024? www.bom.gov.au/climate/mjo/...
bom.gov.au
I love writing about geeky science that has real-world implications. In this case, a new NOAA index does a more solid job of classifying El Niño and La Niña—and that helps explain some recent puzzling events. @climateconnections.bsky.social yaleclimateconnections.org/2026/02/a-ne...
A new and better way to keep tabs on El Niño and La Niña » Yale Climate Connections
Developed in response to a warming world, NOAA’s revised scale more precisely identifies which episodes are likely to have the biggest impacts.
yaleclimateconnections.org
