Pleased to say that I've published my research from my previous role at MPI: We used a large ensemble decadal prediction system and found evidence of atmospheric circulation skill relating to Atlantic Multidecadal Variability, although model deficiencies that limit skill persist:

Predictability of European summer climate: the influence of competing mechanisms related to Atlantic Multidecadal Variability

Abstract. Skilful predictions of European summer climate are increasingly relevant due to an increasing probability of temperature extremes, but prediction skill beyond the forced trend has so far pro...

esd.copernicus.org

A bit of an odd snippet from this month's Weather magazine. The 'campaigners' did damage equipment designed to spare road users from hazards, but that was their intention all along.

It doesn't help that most undergraduate physics courses in the UK treat classical physics as an aside. By my third year the entirety of mandatory lecture/exam modules were quantum/particle/cosmology focused and I first learnt fluid dynamics from an optional module in the maths department.

Helen Czerski@helenczerski.bsky.social · 11mo ago

And far too often we still think physics is just quantum mechanics and cosmology - far away mysterious things that don't relate to our everyday life. That's nonsense. Why it is tiring to walk slowly, what limits the height of a tree, why do baby ducks swim in a tight line? Physics will tell you!

Annual updates to ‘climate forcing’ data sets would allow simulations to keep pace as global warming accelerates. go.nature.com/45N9aXt

Climate models need more frequent releases of input data — here’s how to do it

Annual updates to ‘climate forcing’ data sets would allow simulations to keep pace as global warming accelerates.

go.nature.com

It was great to give an overview of my research so far at the RMetS Early Career conference earlier today! And great to hear about the variety of other research from early career scientists in the field.

Jen@jenstoutwx.bsky.social · last yr.

Congratulations to @nedcwilliams.bsky.social for his excellent Malcolm Walker Award winning lecture at the #RMetSearlycareers conference final talk! We had a queue outside the door to see him, and the overflow delegates were watching live from another theatre. #RMetS @rmets.org @metoffice.gov.uk

Very pleased to have won the Malcolm Walker Award for New Environmental Researchers! It is an honour to stand in the company of previous winners and it was great to attend the awards ceremony on Wednesday alongside the winners of other RMetS awards. www.rmets.org/news/royal-m...

The Royal Meteorological Society Announces 2024 Award Winners in Landmark Anniversary Year

The Royal Meteorological Society (RMetS) is delighted to announce the winners of the RMetS 2024 Awards, following an exceptional range of nominations from across the international community of pioneer...

rmets.org

I have good memories of cycling to here as a teen. It's a shame if future generations won't be able to do the same.

Anger as Dorset estate withdraws public entry to ‘stunning’ local landmark

Visitors lament ‘tremendous shame’ as notice withdrawing public access appears after £30m sale of Bridehead Estate

theguardian.com

THE RISE OF MACHINE LEARNING IN CLIMATE MODELLING Very pleased to report the first published output from the @metoffice.bsky.social new team Data Driven Climate Modelling team. A short commentary from my esteemed colleague George Jordan rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/...

The rise of machine learning in climate modelling

Click on the article title to read more.

rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com

💧Latest Hydrological Summary shows: -Below-average March rainfall in all areas of UK after dry winter -Many rivers in N & W have exceptionally low flows -Record low March groundwater levels in N Ireland, Scotland, Wales 🔎https://nrfa.ceh.ac.uk/sites/default/files/2025-04/HS_202503.pdf

"Why are you so bent out of shape, polar vortex?" Beautiful view via earth.nullschool.net (using NOAA's free GFS model data) of the current stratospheric warming event – likely to be the final stratospheric warming (FSW) – featuring one of the largest stratospheric wave-1 disturbances on record.

Yesterday was my last day at MPI-M, this morning I left Hamburg. It has been a great experience to live and work abroad and there's a lot I'll miss, but I'm also looking forward to what's next!

I really cannot believe my childhood career dream might end like this. Feeling so small and lost.

Reposting this report, which has a message which I suspect holds true in many other countries. www.metoffice.gov.uk/about-us/new...

Met Office delivers £56 billion of economic value to the UK

A new independent economic study has concluded that the Met Office will deliver benefits worth £56 billion to the UK economy over the next ten years.

metoffice.gov.uk

A data availability statement I wrote yesterday is no longer valid...

Prof Richard Betts@richardabetts.bsky.social · last yr.

Although NOAA's page on atmospheric CO2 levels has vanished, you can still get this vital information from Ralph Keeling's team at the Scripps Institution of Oceanography, UC San Diego keelingcurve.ucsd.edu Please follow bsky.app/profile/keel... for updates and share Don't let science be hidden

What better way to spend three days in July than by coming to Manchester for this year's @rmets.org Annual Weather and Climate Conference? 😁 Please consider submitting an abstract – deadline 14 February. We look forward to seeing you there! More details: www.rmets.org/annualconfer...

Visited Sylt at the very northern end of Germany yesterday. Only accessible from mainland Germany by train, with lots of unique landscapes and nice to see the sea!

Excited to say that I'll be starting a Scientist role in the Monthly-to-Decadal team at the Met Office in March! I will miss Hamburg and it's been a great experience to live and work in Germany, but I'm also looking forward to being back in Exeter/Devon.

I worry that the concept of geoengineering is increasingly going to enter public discussion, not through climate scientists who want to make the nuances and ethics clear, but through the large audience tech sector who want to be seen as having solutions.

Built Hamburg's highest* snowman earlier. *in terms of altitude

At some point the NWP world has to address that 'we run a statistical model based on what happened in the past to estimate the future' became the futuristic tech-y solution instead of 'we use the world's most powerful computers to represent the earth based on physics and then run it forward in time'

Dartmoor visitor centre to close as National Park Authority cannot afford to renew lease from Duchy National Parks are facing 12% budget cuts - not a great way for Labour to celebrate the 75th anniversary of their creation & why is Duchy charging at all? www.tavistock-today.co.uk/news/nationa...

Princetown national park visitor centre to close

THE POPULAR Dartmoor National Park visitor centre in Princetown is due to close after a funding injection ends in March causing concern the economy of the village will be affected.

tavistock-today.co.uk

ASPECT project is now on Bluesky!! Join our network to keep in touch with the latest project news! @aspect-project.bsky.social

A little over a week to enter nominations for the 2024 Royal Meteorological Society Awards. A wide range of awards which recognise (among others) early-career scientists, educators, communicators and world-leading scientists in meteorology and climate science. www.rmets.org/nominations-...

Pleased to have played a role in this work: the 1 year-lagged impact of ENSO in the extratropics far exceeds the expected effect due to ENSO autocorrelation, and we propose large-scale atmospheric angular momentum anomalies propagating polewards as a mechanism. www.science.org/doi/10.1126/...

ENSO affects the North Atlantic Oscillation 1 year later

We demonstrate a 1-year lagged extratropical response to the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in observational analyses and climate models. The response maps onto the Arctic Oscillation and is stro...

science.org

Extraordinary rainfall distribution in UK in September. Bedfordshire and Oxfordshire saw their wettest month in our 188 year series. But only 25% wetter than average overall despite many areas having 3x average rainfall. More details in Met Office press release www.metoffice.gov.uk/about-us/new...

New paper, led by Yingfei Fang during her visit to the University of Exeter: ENSO teleconnections to the South Pacific are underestimated in CMIP6 models, and are generally too far west although the position improves with increased ocean resolution. agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/...

It was nice to be at the Met Office (and University of Exeter) last week, with lots of useful discussions on climate prediction research. Featuring some grey sky for bluesky, to prove once and for all that the Met Office aren't choosing their weather.

🚨 Here to share a new paper on the future of the #HornofAfrica March-May long rains and the "East African Paradox", which just dropped as Early Online Release in the Journal of Climate. t.co/TpIY616dqt

Spotted in a hotel in Köln: a classic unit conversion error