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Phil Orchard

@philorchard.bsky.social

Professor of International Relations, Discipline Leader, Politics & Intl Studies @UOW; Co-Director @FutureofRights. International relations, forced and climate displacement & the R2P. Twitter: @p_orchard.

249 Posts2060 Follower921 Folgt
Joe Cirincione@joecirin.bsky.social · 2w ago

"President Trump’s reported concessions to Saudi Arabia raise legitimate concerns and unless addressed could lead to a Middle East filled with nuclear weapons programs." Analysis from one of the top experts in the field, @jonatomic.bsky.social newrepublic.com/article/2133... via @newrepublic.com

Trump’s Nuclear Deal With Saudi Arabia Looks More Like a Favor

The agreement includes a number of worrying U.S. concessions, raising concerns that Saudi Arabia is taking advantage of its close financial ties to the Trump family.

newrepublic.com

Stephanie Carvin@stephaniecarvin.bsky.social · 2w ago

Okay, non-economist here but the new US tariffs on Canada are just… kinda weird? Like they picked weird things to target (we have a Canadian tequila industry?!?) to go after slightly more than 5% of our trade. It is like they wanted 50% headlines but it is… targeting our honey industry?

Tweet by University of Toronto economist Joesph Steinberg. Update: Based on annexes to the 3 factsheets and (hopefully) correct script to merge them with trade data, I get the following: - ~5.3% of exports affected - ~2.6pp increase in average effective tariff rate. Will update with any further errors
Chabeli Carrazana@chabeli.bsky.social · 2w ago

The world may have moved on from Minneapolis but its immigrant community continues to struggle. We spoke to single mothers who hid from ICE for months, ran through their savings, and now can’t pay to renew their DACA applications. At least dozens are in this situation. 19thnews.org/2026/07/ice-...

Single mothers lost months of income hiding from ICE — and now can’t afford to renew immigration papers

They survived ICE's takeover in Minneapolis. But now their DACA protections are set to expire, leaving dozens scrambling to afford hundreds of dollars in fees to maintain their legal status.

19thnews.org

Adam Bonica@adambonica.bsky.social · 2w ago

Serbian President Vucic announced he’ll resign after 18 months of student protests. That’s Bangladesh, Nepal, Madagascar, Bulgaria, Hungary, and now Serbia, all in the past two years. Anti-corruption is the most potent force for positive political change right now. The US remains ripe.

Serbian President Vucic says he will resign within weeks

Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic said on Saturday he would resign ​within weeks and the country will hold early presidential and parliamentary elections, following 18 months of anti-government prote...

reuters.com

Stanimir Dobrev@delfoo.bsky.social · last mo.

Updated map of the regions of Russia where there are shortages of gasoline or diesel. As always it's worse in the occupied territories. Added 2 regions. Ingushetia and Ugra ( ХМАО ). Over 90% of Russia's regions have fuel shortages and population wise well over 95%.

Bild
Anjali Dayal@anjalikdayal.bsky.social · 3mo ago

I just want to add, since this is breaking containment, that this can't be made right. these people, each one a whole universe, are gone. there can only be justice for the perpetrators; public remorse & restitution; & reform to ensure future aid systems are more just and less prone to imperial whims

Anjali Dayal@anjalikdayal.bsky.social · 3mo ago

“The dismantling of USAID, according to models from Boston University epidemiologist Brooke Nichols, “has already caused the deaths of six hundred thousand people, two-thirds of them children,” Gawande wrote.” hsph.harvard.edu/news/usaid-s...

Judah Grunstein@judah-grunstein.bsky.social · 2mo ago

The follow-up deal won't get done, so this basically locks both sides into a protracted non-aggression pact stalemate. The US pockets the one-off damage it did to Iran's infrastructure. Iran pockets a one-off show of strength that will be hard to repeat against a competent administration. 1/2

George Pearkes@peark.es · 2mo ago

Since I haven't seen a post with all of it screenshotted and alt-texted in one place, here's the Iran MOU as hudson.org Adjunct Fellow Josh Block is reporting it on Twitter.

1. The Islamic Republic of Iran and the United States, together with their allies in the current war, declare upon the signing of this Memorandum of Understanding an immediate and permanent end to the war on all fronts, including Lebanon, and undertake that from now on they will not launch any hostile action against each other, and will refrain from the threat or use of force against each other. The final agreement will confirm the provisions of this Article and the remaining Articles. 2. The Islamic Republic of Iran and the United States undertake to respect each other's sovereignty and territorial integrity, and to refrain from interfering in each other's internal affairs. 3. The Islamic Republic of Iran and the United States undertake to negotiate and reach a final agreement within a maximum period of 60 days, extendable by mutual consent. 4. Immediately upon the signing of this Memorandum of Understanding, the United States Lift the naval blockade and prevent any interference or obstruction against the Islamic Republic of Iran, and restore traffic within a maximum of 30 days to its full capacity; the traffic of ships shall be proportional to the pre-war volume of traffic on the part of the Islamic Republic of Iran. The United States also undertakes to withdraw its forces from the surrounding areas within 30 days after the final agreement. 5. Upon signing this Memorandum of Understanding, the Islamic Republic of Iran will immediately take steps to ensure that the movement of merchant ships from the Persian Gulf to the Sea of ​​Oman and vice versa is resumed within 30 days to the pre-war volume, taking into account the need for the removal of technical obstacles and the neutralization of mines by Iran.
Aaron Reichlin-Melnick@reichlinmelnick.bsky.social · 2mo ago

Great news: the courts will have a chance to rein in the abuses at Camp East Montana, the infamous tent camp built on Fort Bliss in El Paso. I have known seasoned veterans of this field who visited the camp and came away saying it was one of the worst ICE detention centers they’d ever been to.

ICE sued over “inhumane” conditions at Camp East Montana

The El Paso tent camp has seen at least three detainee deaths, a measles outbreak and nearly 50 detention standards violations in less than a year of operation.

texastribune.org

Phil Orchard@philorchard.bsky.social · 3mo ago

Blistering column by Zoe Daniel in the @GuardianAus today about Liberals & One Nation’s policies: “(Angus)Taylor has voted with One Nation’s Barnaby Joyce 99.8% of the time and the Liberals vote with Pauline Hanson as much as 90% of the time in the Senate.” www.theguardian.com/commentisfre...

The Coalition is nailing its own coffin shut in Farrer. It should have had the courage to put One Nation last

By directing preferences to Pauline Hanson’s party, the Coalition may deliver One Nation its first election win in the lower house

theguardian.com

Gillian Brockell@gillianbrockell.com · 4mo ago

BREAKING: An ICE charter landed in the Democratic Republic of Congo minutes ago following third-country deportation deal with the Trump administration. gillianbrockell.com/breaking-ice...

BREAKING: ICE charter lands in Congo following third-country deportation deal

The likely ICE flight landed in Kinshasa in the early morning hours Friday, and a second ICE charter aircraft appeared to also be bound for central Africa.

gillianbrockell.com

Gillian Brockell@gillianbrockell.com · 4mo ago

ICE flight news incoming...

Brian Finucane@bcfinucane.bsky.social · 4mo ago

Despite the administration’s rhetoric and bogus legal theories, the supposed armed conflict with “narco-terrorists” appears to be entirely make believe. Murder is the general term for premeditated killing outside of armed conflict.

On April 15, at the direction of #SOUTHCOM commander Gen. Francis L. Donovan, Joint Task Force Southern Spear conducted a lethal kinetic strike on a vessel operated by Designated Terrorist Organizations. Intelligence confirmed the vessel was transiting along known narco-trafficking routes in the Eastern Pacific and was engaged in narco-trafficking operations. Three male narco-terrorists were killed during this action. No U.S. military forces were harmed. @DeptofWar #OpSouthernSpear
Holly Cullen@hollycullenfreo.bsky.social · 4mo ago

'For the families who lived through these events, nothing can bring back what they lost. But being recognised, being heard and having their stories taken seriously still matters. Because in the end, justice is not only about punishment. It is also about acknowledgement.'

Ben Roberts-Smith’s arrest won’t erase the pain for Afghans – but it shows Australia is willing to face uncomfortable truths | Shadi Khan Saif

In the context of the Afghanistan war, this kind of accountability is rare, and it matters

theguardian.com

Yael Schacher@yaelschacher.bsky.social · 4mo ago

If SCOTUS takes this, and they rules as I think it will in Noem v. AOL, it will completely upend the 1980 Refugee Act and IIRIRA and make both basically laws that say refugees are to be turned away and turn the US into an immigrant gulag

Chris Geidner@chrisgeidner.bsky.social · 4mo ago

BREAKING: Fifth Circuit will not review the 2-1 decision OKing the Trump administration's mandatory detention policy with an en banc rehearing by the full court. No judge sought a vote, and no one wrote. The means only SCOTUS review is possible. Order: storage.courtlistener.com/recap/gov.us...