Pit Jasper Lee
@pitjasperlee.bsky.social
Researching @Hertie School formerly MPhil @DSPI Oxford Broad interests: labour market & industrial policy, pension funds & housing, monetary policy & growth strategies
A company-level OECD analysis of government subsidies across 15 key industrial sectors found that nearly 60 per cent of Chinese firms’ global market share gains since 2005 could be attributed to subsidies Paging @davidheniguk.bsky.social for comments
Germany is the epicentre of the China Shock 2.0 reverberating in global markets In a new joint paper, CFR's Brad Setser and I show the shock is a key driver of Germany’s economic malaise. And it's accelerating Berlin needs to stop admiring the problem, and join efforts to fight back 1/many
Always hugely insightful to listen to Helen Thompson.
London Review of Books@lrb.co.uk · 4mo ago‘We can’t go back to a world in which the assumptions are that transit through that part of the world of energy is relatively straightforward.’ Helen Thompson on Iran, oil and Trump’s resource politics, on the podcast. podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast/t...
It’s insane this is legal. People around Trump are profiting off war and death. I’m introducing legislation ASAP to ban this.
Why are house prices / rents so high? Not enough supply. Two lost decades after 2006 - we are now barely back to the average level of housing starts prevailing in the 1960s-1970s when the population was ≈ 1/2 the current size and household sizes were much higher. H/t @calculatedrisk.bsky.social
Prices are up on rent, groceries, utilities and more. Working families are fighting for scraps while billionaires and giant corporations are getting even richer. America’s unions are growing because working people are hungry to take back their power and balance the scales.
New essay by @steffenmurau.bsky.social on Trump admin's misunderstanding of dollar hegemony—and four possible futures for the international monetary system. 1/ www.phenomenalworld.org/analysis/tru...
Trump's Dollar | Steffen Murau
Calls to weaken the dollar have become a feature of Trump's second term. But in today's credit-based system, where the US currency is often created offshore, nativist politics cannot be translated int...
phenomenalworld.org
Was sagt es eigentlich über uns als Deutsche und als Europäer, dass wir es zulassen, dass die Menschen in der Ukraine von Putin in Kälte und Dunkelheit gebombt werden? Wir loben nur die Ukrainer für ihre "Resilienz" und machen große Worte. Ein Armutszeugnis für Europa.
Some Europeans have still not caught up to a world profoundly shaped by Chinas industrial policy. A lot of hard pushback on targeted buy-European because it would reduce European competitiveness and product quality. Reality, created by China, would disagree. 1/
Once more tapping the sign saying: homes are not ATMs, not a financial asset (they cost you $ in upkeep and taxes), are pro cyclic... 🌮 basically saying fuck you to Gen Z and younger millennials. 1/5 aged 25-34 still living in parents’ home.
Aaron Rupar@atrupar.com · 6mo agoTrump: "People that own their homes -- we're gonna keep them wealthy. We're gonna keep those prices up. We're not gonna destroy the value of their homes so that somebody who didn't work very hard can buy a home."
A paradigm case of populism. Promise sellers that prices will go up, and buyers that they will go down.
The Bulwark@thebulwark.com · 6mo agoTrump: "I don't want to drive housing prices down. I want to drive housing prices up for people who own homes."
I think part of the reason everyone is so blown away by this Carney speech is it's so long since we heard an actual grown-up articulate serious thoughts about the world. Empty vessels have been making a lot of noise
Stephen Bush@stephenkb.bsky.social · 7mo agoMark Carney's speech really is terrific: full text is here and very much worth your time.
1/14 Unfortunately I don't subscribe to Krugman's substack, so I cannot comment on the whole article, but I can say that the first few paragraphs lay out the issue very accurately and with commendable simplicity. He certainly understands the main issues. open.substack.com/pub/paulkrug...
China’s Trade Surplus, Part II
How the surplus is achieved, and why it’s a problem
open.substack.com
Das ist ein wirklich schöner und überraschender Thread:
Paul Fairie@paulisci.bsky.social · 7mo agoA List of Predictions Made in 1926 About 2026 🧵
Stromausfall, Restaurants und Supermärkte etc. können den Inhalt ihrer Kühlschränke entsorgen. 35.000 Haushalte sitzen im Kalten und Dunkeln. Herzlichen Glückwunsch, ihr habt der Energielobby richtig eins mitgegeben. Ab morgen geht bestimmt ganz Berlin auf die Straße für euer Anliegen! 2/2
1/3 Reuters: "German exporters should prepare for continued weakness in 2026 in their two largest markets, the United States and China, with little prospect of recovery." www.reuters.com/world/china/...
German exporters face prolonged slump in key U.S., China markets
German exporters should prepare for continued weakness in 2026 in their two largest markets, the United States and China, with little prospect of recovery, the BGA trade association said on Friday.
reuters.com
@seva.bsky.social is, of course, correct. Venezuela was a pre-arranged gift to (or from) Putin; Cuba is next. The spheres of influence and control are back. Yalta without the spectacle of Yalta.
Venezuela Is a Gift to Putin
and a harbinger of more Russian aggression in Europe
open.substack.com
2/2 It is too early to say if the recent decline in the US trade deficit will persist, but if it does, without an equivalent reduction in the Chinese trade surplus global trade tensions will only get much worse, making it harder than ever for the trade deal to be signed.
For your weekend listening pleasure, it's me and @johncassidysays.bsky.social talking about his belter of a book Capitalism and its Critics: player.captivate.fm/episode/b858... Do it. And then get the book.
The story of capitalism, as told by its critics
Quickly and easily listen to The Rhodes Center Podcast with Mark Blyth for free!
player.captivate.fm
Good piece from Pettis. Europe has to make a move. Intervening on the euro is impossible as the ECB would never do so. It could also stoke a currency war, as China already intervenes heavily and Trump in some ways has lowered the USD exchange rate - on purpose or as a side effect. 1/
John Springford@johnspringford.bsky.social · 8mo agoThe problem is how. Broad-based tariffs on Chinese goods? IRA-style subsidies to the manufacturing sector as a whole? An attempt to devalue the euro? When you get to the policies bit things start to look very risky.
Explaining the other day that the moral puzzle about universal health care is not why poor people get it, but why richer people do. The answer from Beveridge, the Liberal (not Socialist) who recommended the NHS is economic efficiency. Universal healthcare removes huge transaction costs.
Das ist ein sehr lustiger und sehr tragischer Text von @bertpsch.bsky.social über die Vorgänge rund um den Neuköllner Bürgermeister Martin Hikel und die politische Linke allgemein www.zeit.de/2025/48/mart...
Martin Hikel : Neukölln stellt die Schicksalsfrage der linken Mitte
Die SPD stellt den beliebten Bürgermeister in dem Berliner Bezirk – und sägt ihn ab. Was sich an diesem Vorgang über die Sozialdemokratie lernen lässt.
zeit.de
Absolutely gross. @anandwrites.bsky.social nails the semiotics of intra-elite back scratching from the Epstein emails. “This is what these powerful people…were thinking and doing —taking care of one another instead of the general welfare — before it got really bad.”
Opinion | How the Elite Behave When No One Is Watching: Inside the Epstein Emails
nytimes.com
