Garry Peterson

@resiliencesci.bsky.social

Director FinBio.org Professor of Environmental Science with focus on Resilience in Social-Ecological Systems Stockholm Resilience Centre, Stockholm University stockholmresilience.org projects: regimeshifts.org biospherefutures.net goodanthropocenes.net

Summary of Progress in the Implementation of the Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework bit.ly/KM-GBF-Asses... Source: SBSTTA. (2026). State of biodiversity action: Global report on collective progress in the implementation of the Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework (2nd draft).

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2026 El Niño models continue their inexorable march upwards. CanSIPS (which used to be among the cooler ones!) released their August runs today, and now show a Nov/Dec peak of 3.6C (CanESM5) and 4.2C (GEM-NEMO). For reference, the prior record El Niño peaked at 2.8C.

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From early May to mid-July 2026, soil moisture conditions deteriorated across France. Copernicus helps monitor these conditions and supports authorities with preparedness and early warning activities. This animation shows drier than usual conditions expanding and intensifying over time.

Yesterday afternoon 14:09 in Lacanau Océan in France. A pale red sun through the smoke tinged everything in Mars style orange. Welcome in the climate emergency! Despite all denial of the fossil fuel lobby, it’s scientific fact: CO2 emissions heat up Earth & make fires worse. 🔥🔥🔥

"The Colorado River’s largest reservoirs, Lake Mead and Lake Powell, have declined to their lowest combined levels on record. Researchers say the new low underscores the urgent need to cut water use in the seven states that depend on the river." www.latimes.com/environment/...

'A five-alarm fire': Western reservoirs that supply California fall to record low levels

The Colorado River's largest reservoirs, Lake Mead and Lake Powell, have declined to the lowest combined levels on record. Researchers say this underscores the urgent need to cut water use.

latimes.com

Climate change does not cause wildfires, but hot and dry conditions make them much more likely to spread. In Canada, 9 of the 10 worst wildfire years were both dryer and hotter than normal. And these fires are burning in areas that were historically not managed or suppressed.

Graphs showing cumulative area burned and carbon emissions in Ontario. Note in terms of area burned 2021 is the top spot but 2026 is top spot in terms of carbon emissions. Both are correct. The reason for this is that the 2026 fires are more severe - consumed more biomass (greater depth of burn).

Cumulative area burned (hectares) in Ontario.Cumulative total carbon emissions from wildfires in Ontario 2003-2026

Wildfire smoke exposure and mortality burden in the USA under climate change Qiu+ doi.org/10.1038/s415... "When monetized, climate-driven smoke deaths result in economic damages that exceed existing estimates of climate-driven damages from all other causes combined in the USA"

Wildfire smoke exposure and mortality burden in the USA under climate change - Nature

Smoke PM2.5 could result in 71,420 excess deaths per year in the USA by 2050 under the SSP3-7.0 high-warming scenario.

doi.org

Our 2026 fire season was quiet, and just like the rapid transition from winter to summer (bypassing spring) in much Canada, our fire season went from quiet to crazy full on. Rapid increase in area burned (and smoke) from fires in the NWT and QC and more recently ON. See hot spot graph below

Estimated area burned in Canada from satellite hot spots 
https://cwfis.cfs.nrcan.gc.ca/en/summary

“…political appointees at federal agencies will have the power to review research grants to ensure they “demonstrably advance the President’s priorities” and to abruptly terminate those, even ongoing clinical trials, perceived as out of line” www.ft.com/content/e003...

Trump is driving another nail into the coffin of US science

Under proposed reforms, political appointees will review grants to ensure they “advance the President’s priorities”

ft.com

“Australia has blazed a trail as one of the fastest-growing export markets for Chinese batteries, as part of a rapid shift to domestic renewable energy by one of the world’s largest fossil fuel producers” ft.com/giftarticle/actions/redeem/f28a1ac3-3ab6-4dc0-a807-59ddc8b20468

Australians ‘going gangbusters’ on Chinese batteries in renewable energy shift

Clean energy, backed by storage, now makes up about half of the country’s energy supply

giftarticle.ft.com

Shetland backs plan to connect islands with £1.5bn undersea tunnels www.bbc.com/news/article... inspired by tunnels in Faroes islandstudiesjournal.org/article/1237... where "a massive tunnel-building project started six decades ago aiming to reverse negative demographic trends and outmigration"

Shetland backs 'transformative' £1.5bn plan to replace ferries with tunnels

The undersea links between some of the UK's most northerly islands could be in place within eight years.

bbc.com

“Unlike most weapons systems, which were designed by arms experts and military men, most new Ukrainian weapons are being developed by people like me who have never built a weapon before—people more likely to think about ease of use and user safety”-Iryna Terekh washingtonmonthly.com/2026/06/01/c...

Could the Tide Be Turning in Ukraine?

Kyiv’s growing long-range strike capacity showcases its growing military might and determination to end dependence on Western allies.

washingtonmonthly.com

Over 70 years and across the globe, falling birth rates haven't slowed growth. Scarcity of young workers spurs labor-saving innovation, raising GDP per working-age adult and wages, from Daron Acemoglu, David Autor, Keelan Beirne, and Andrew Scott www.nber.org/papers/w35401

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