Rhymer Rigby

@rhymerrigby.bsky.social

Journalist (FT, Times, Guardian), author and copywriter. Lives in SE London, with wife, daughters, cats. Likes hipster film photography, cooking, good vibes

NEW: Democrats have gained control over enough state governments to pass the National Popular Vote Compact and give it a majority of at least 283 electoral votes—13 more than it needs to activate by 2028. My story below explains the path forward for eventually electing the president by popular vote

Map titled “Projected Partisan Control Over State Governments After 2027” from The Downballot. Each state is sized by its 2020 census population and colored by which party controls its government. Full control means the party holds the governorship and legislative majorities. States with divided government where one party holds veto-proof majorities are shown with stripes, since that party has effective control. Population percentages are calculated using 2025 state population estimates. Proportion of population by category:
Fully Democratic: 52%
Arizona: 2.2%
California: 11.5%
Colorado: 1.8%
Connecticut: 1.1%
Delaware: 0.3%
Hawaii: 0.4%
Illinois: 3.7%
Maine: 0.4%
Maryland: 1.8%
Massachusetts: 2.1%
Michigan: 3.0%
Minnesota: 1.7%
Nevada: 1.0%
New Jersey: 2.8%
New Mexico: 0.6%
New York: 5.9%
Oregon: 1.3%
Pennsylvania: 3.8%
Rhode Island: 0.3%
Virginia: 2.6%
Washington: 2.3%
Wisconsin: 1.8%

Democratic veto-proof majorities with Republican governor: 0.2%
Vermont: 0.2%

Divided Government: 22%
Alaska: 0.2%
Georgia: 3.3%
Iowa: 0.9%
Kansas: 0.9%
New Hampshire: 0.4%
North Carolina: 3.3%
Ohio: 3.5%
Texas: 9.3%

Republican veto-proof majorities with Democratic governor: 1%
Kentucky: 1.4%

Fully Republican: 24%
Alabama: 1.5%
Arkansas: 0.9%
Florida: 6.9%
Idaho: 0.6%
Indiana: 2.0%
Louisiana: 1.4%
Mississippi: 0.9%
Missouri: 1.8%
Montana: 0.3%
Nebraska: 0.6%
North Dakota: 0.2%
Oklahoma: 1.2%
South Carolina: 1.6%
South Dakota: 0.3%
Tennessee: 2.1%
Utah: 1.0%
West Virginia: 0.5%
Wyoming: 0.2%
Stephen Wolf@stephenwolf.bsky.social · 3d ago

NEW: The 2026 elections could lead to enough states passing the National Popular Vote Compact for the Electoral College to activate it by 2028. Dems have already passed it everywhere they can—adding a few more states could give it a majority of electoral votes www.the-downballot.com/p/how-tuesda...

Map titled "Hypothetical Path to Activating the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact," with the subtitle "How the compact could obtain a majority of Electoral College votes by 2028." It is a stylized map of the United States in which each state is labeled with its number of electoral votes. States are shaded in three colors: green for current members, yellow for states possible by 2028, and gray for states unlikely to join.

A note on the map says the compact would take effect once states with at least 270 of the 538 electoral votes join. Current members and the states possible by 2028 together hold 290 electoral votes.

Current members (222 electoral votes):
California: 54
Colorado: 10
Connecticut: 7
Delaware: 3
District of Columbia: 3
Hawaii: 4
Illinois: 19
Maine: 4
Maryland: 10
Massachusetts: 11
Minnesota: 10
New Jersey: 14
New Mexico: 5
New York: 28
Oregon: 8
Rhode Island: 4
Vermont: 3
Virginia: 13
Washington: 12

Possible new members by 2028 (68 electoral votes):
Alaska: 3
Arizona: 11
Michigan: 15
Nevada: 6
New Hampshire: 4
Pennsylvania: 19
Wisconsin: 10

States unlikely to join (248 electoral votes):
Alabama: 9
Arkansas: 6
Florida: 30
Georgia: 16
Idaho: 4
Indiana: 11
Iowa: 6
Kansas: 6
Kentucky: 8
Louisiana: 8
Mississippi: 6
Missouri: 10
Montana: 4
Nebraska: 5
North Carolina: 16
North Dakota: 3
Ohio: 17
Oklahoma: 7
South Carolina: 9
South Dakota: 3
Tennessee: 11
Texas: 40
Utah: 6
West Virginia: 4
Wyoming: 3

Footer: "States are sized and labeled based on their total electoral votes. Files available at https://the-db.co/data." Source: The Downballot.

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