Jack Sillin

@sillin.bsky.social

Energy Meteorology & Adventuring Yarmouth, ME | Boston, MA | Wherever it's snowing

Pour one out for what may be the final instance of "getting NAM'd" whereby the NAM model gives false hope of a robust coastal low w/strong frontogenesis banding over a major metro area. It is admittedly more fun when multiple ptypes are involved. The NAM is being pushed into retirement this fall :(

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Following up after a weekend of observing #Erin. The real track fell on the left side of the ECMWF Ensemble guidance envelope, but near a solid cluster of members. Only one deepmind member showed a scenario remotely similar to what actually happened.

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Jack Sillin@sillin.bsky.social · 12mo ago

This morning's ECMWF Ensemble forecast scenarios for #Erin (left) vs Google DeepMind (right). Which do you think provides more useful information about tropical cyclone forecast uncertainty?

This morning's ECMWF Ensemble forecast scenarios for #Erin (left) vs Google DeepMind (right). Which do you think provides more useful information about tropical cyclone forecast uncertainty?

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This is such a critical point that can be tough to make without seeming to minimize the current disaster. This event had a very high death toll for a U.S. disaster and the impacts are severe but in terms of total number of people directly affected and the geographic scope, it’s on the smaller size.

Mark Bove@mcb-wxclimaterisk.bsky.social · last yr.

As horrible as the Guadeloupe River flash flood was, it was an isolated small scale event. FEMA couldn’t even handle that. Imagine the call volume that’ll be generated (and not answered) when a major hurricane hits a populated area, possibly just weeks from now.

Trying to figure out how to get (excellent quality) forecasts/warnings the last mile is tough, complicated, nuanced work without any easy scapegoat or fix. But once you burn enough tools to prevent the high-quality forecast, this kind of tragedy is going to happen way more often

They are simply not up to the task of defending the constitution and the people of this country. I haven’t gone this far yet on this, but I’m done. They have taken an oath and a responsibility and they’re willfully, even joyfully abdicating it.

Dr. Samantha Montano@samlmontano.bsky.social · last yr.

To me this feels like a similar moment to Sandy Hook. If republicans aren’t willing to accept responsibility and change policy to protect young white christian girls in Texas, they won’t do it for anyone.