Pour one out for what may be the final instance of "getting NAM'd" whereby the NAM model gives false hope of a robust coastal low w/strong frontogenesis banding over a major metro area. It is admittedly more fun when multiple ptypes are involved. The NAM is being pushed into retirement this fall :(
Jack Sillin
@sillin.bsky.social
Energy Meteorology & Adventuring Yarmouth, ME | Boston, MA | Wherever it's snowing
late may / early june tornado climo: the bar to produce tornadoes is now set on the floor 2026: hold my beer while i grab a shovel
@burgwx.bsky.social hey Tomer hope youve been doing well! just wanted to flag that tropycal seems to have acquired a bug whereby one can't even import due to apparently missing modules github.com/tropycal/tro...
Can't import tropycal · Issue #245 · tropycal/tropycal
Tropycal 1.4. Two errors, both related to setuptools. ModuleNotFoundError: No module named 'setuptools_scm' and ModuleNotFoundError: No module named 'pkg_resources' . Setuptools version 82.0.0 and ...
github.com
I’m curious if you went to a No Kings event today (as I did!) what did you think of the speakers? Good? Inspiring? Interesting? Boring? Cringe?
My Ioniq 5 is awesome, I’d never go back to gas if you paid me
Yes the EV tax credits are gone, but Hyundai is just dropping car prices through at least October to pretend they aren't. So if you missed Sept 30th, think hard about it this month. insideevs.com/news/774360/...
this makes me viscerally angry. what a cool tool lit on fire for no reason
Some of Mamdani’s policies are good, some are bad, a few are terrible, but the way he does politics is so refreshing I would totally vote for him if I lived in NYC
Mamdani serves a full, nutritious meal in an era where politics is either deadly poison or vacuous junk food. He uses the tried and true "we did, we can, we will" framework that helps abate cynicism but without papering over past harms or present injustice.
Knowing that RFK cries a little each time I get a vaccine makes it hurt a lot less
Monday. 5pm. 7th Ave from clarkson st. We looooveeeeeee congestion pricing!
I like cold and snow and mountains. I do not like heat, humidity, and insane politics
Following up after a weekend of observing #Erin. The real track fell on the left side of the ECMWF Ensemble guidance envelope, but near a solid cluster of members. Only one deepmind member showed a scenario remotely similar to what actually happened.
This morning's ECMWF Ensemble forecast scenarios for #Erin (left) vs Google DeepMind (right). Which do you think provides more useful information about tropical cyclone forecast uncertainty?
This morning's ECMWF Ensemble forecast scenarios for #Erin (left) vs Google DeepMind (right). Which do you think provides more useful information about tropical cyclone forecast uncertainty?
"Americans already understood Trump to be corrupt, and proved themselves willing to tolerate that. But now they are coming to believe that he is inept. In American politics, that is an unforgivable sin." www.theatlantic.com/politics/arc...
Trump’s Unforgivable Sin
Voters have proved willing to tolerate corruption, but there’s one thing they won’t ignore.
theatlantic.com
This is an unprecedented time in our nation's history. Conspiracies, lies, and gaslighting are running amok. We need more scientists in Congress. I was born and raised here, and I am running to represent all Virginians from Chesterfield County to the Chesapeake Bay.
Sean Sublette - Meteorologist for Congress: Welcome to Virginia
YouTube video by Sean Sublette
youtu.be
It is only a matter of time before this kills a lot of people
Clear examples of the degraded forecasts we face in this piece from @michaelrlowry.bsky.social Here's Iona from yesterday, with a clear shot of its internal structure in the current state on top, and a useless green blob in the suggested replacement on bottom.
In 2028 my primary vote will go to whichever candidate promises the worst public humiliation for everyone involved in DOGE
Florida is committing "enforced disappearance," a very serious violation of international human rights law. www.miamiherald.com/news/local/i... www.ohchr.org/en/special-p...
This isn’t really a partisan thing and it probably makes me more mad than any of the other TX flooding stuff. We are just far too accommodating of people in denial about reality.
In 2011, FEMA's National Flood Insurance map was updated to include Camp Mystic in a "Special Flood Hazard Area." Camp Mystic fought that designation, getting 15 of the buildings removed in 2013, and 15 more in 2019–20. You can change the map, but that doesn't change reality.
This is such a critical point that can be tough to make without seeming to minimize the current disaster. This event had a very high death toll for a U.S. disaster and the impacts are severe but in terms of total number of people directly affected and the geographic scope, it’s on the smaller size.
As horrible as the Guadeloupe River flash flood was, it was an isolated small scale event. FEMA couldn’t even handle that. Imagine the call volume that’ll be generated (and not answered) when a major hurricane hits a populated area, possibly just weeks from now.
people are making fun of this guy, but the challenge is legit. getting people to take weather alerts seriously is a real problem, and if you send out too many warnings, people will ignore them. of course, it looks awful here but I am sympathetic to the conundrum.
Q: Was there any discussion to evacuate before it was too late? RICE: What we don't want to do is cry wolf
Trying to figure out how to get (excellent quality) forecasts/warnings the last mile is tough, complicated, nuanced work without any easy scapegoat or fix. But once you burn enough tools to prevent the high-quality forecast, this kind of tragedy is going to happen way more often
They are simply not up to the task of defending the constitution and the people of this country. I haven’t gone this far yet on this, but I’m done. They have taken an oath and a responsibility and they’re willfully, even joyfully abdicating it.
To me this feels like a similar moment to Sandy Hook. If republicans aren’t willing to accept responsibility and change policy to protect young white christian girls in Texas, they won’t do it for anyone.
Who will put up big signs in front of shuttered rural hospitals saying [GOP rep/senator’s name did this] and how can I donate to that effort