"The UAE must abandon the illusion of strategic exceptionalism, and rebuild its autonomy through a collective Gulf security order" My new piece for @middleeasteye-rss.bsky.social unpacking the friction between middle power narrative and small state reality www.middleeasteye.net/opinion/how-...

How the Iran war shattered the illusions of the UAE as a rising power

The UAE must abandon the illusion of strategic exceptionalism, and rebuild its autonomy through a collective Gulf security order

middleeasteye.net

I don't agree with every phrasing in this @andreaskrieg.bsky.social piece but I think the core framework of the IRGC as a state military that is structured like a non-state militia is a really useful one it's built to endure more or less precisely this war dawnmena.org/america-is-b...

America is Bogged Down Against a Militia With a State

Every war the West has fought in the post-9/11 “War on Terror” era has ended in some form of stalemate or outright defeat. Tactical battlefield successes never consolidated into sustainable strategic ...

dawnmena.org

For the past year or so, @andreaskrieg.bsky.social has been a guiding light for me in understanding Middle East geopolitics (and beyond). This is one of his most thoughtful episodes on what's going on (not just the usual fear mongering elsewhere). youtu.be/KNRXCXz8yXs

"Fourth #Gulf War is highly unstable, with unlimited potential for escalation"

YouTube video by Dr Andreas Krieg

youtu.be

This panel hosted by @andreaskrieg.bsky.social at the Paris Defense and Security Forum is one of the most comprehensive I've listened to with regards to the geopolitical and maritime realities of the War in Iran. I learned things here that have not been covered by MSM www.youtube.com/watch?v=rQXG...

PDSF 2026 - Supply chain security around the Strait of Hormuz

YouTube video by Dr Andreas Krieg

youtube.com

"Neoconservative narratives of imperial regime change projected by Israel and the United States will do more to confirm the IRGC’s worldview than challenge it," writes @andreaskrieg.bsky.social on the group's role in the Israel/U.S.-Iran War.

America is Bogged Down Against a Militia With a State

Every war the West has fought in the post-9/11 “War on Terror” era has ended in some form of stalemate or outright defeat. Tactical battlefield successes never consolidated into sustainable strategic ...

dawnmena.org

My longer read on the flawed US/Israeli assumptions when fighting a networked militia with a state "Israel and America are now at war with the largest militia network in the world — a network of networks engineered to endure attrition indefinitely" #IRGC #Iran #Trump dawnmena.org/america-is-b...

America is Bogged Down Against a Militia With a State

Every war the West has fought in the post-9/11 “War on Terror” era has ended in some form of stalemate or outright defeat. Tactical battlefield successes never consolidated into sustainable strategic ...

dawnmena.org

“The issue with the Strait of Hormuz is really not a military one. … It’s a market issue, and confidence cannot be restored by the military. Confidence can be restored through diplomacy only.” - @andreaskrieg.bsky.social

How Iran defied Trump threats to emerge as Strait of Hormuz gatekeeper

Trump has called on other navies to help open the strait, but countries are instead striking deals with Iran.

aje.news

“For now, the Gulf feels abandoned by the US: asked to do diplomacy, punished for doing it, and left to absorb the blowback - again.”

Dr Andreas Krieg@andreaskrieg.bsky.social · 5mo ago

My take ✒️ "Israel is fighting Iran to the last Gulfie" How the Gulf states became collateral damage in Israel's War and why strategic autonomy is required to neither become pawns in Israel's new "order" nor leave Iranian aggression unanswered www.middleeasteye.net/opinion/gulf...

"[The Gulf's] business model is ... built on connectivity: trade lanes, capital flows, data systems and energy logistics. Interrupt any of that, and you do not just dent growth; you puncture the very business model that the Gulf states have successfully built in recent decades."

Dr Andreas Krieg@andreaskrieg.bsky.social · 5mo ago

My take ✒️ "Israel is fighting Iran to the last Gulfie" How the Gulf states became collateral damage in Israel's War and why strategic autonomy is required to neither become pawns in Israel's new "order" nor leave Iranian aggression unanswered www.middleeasteye.net/opinion/gulf...

@andreaskrieg.bsky.social on the Gulf's nightmare: "It is built on connectivity: trade lanes, capital flows, data systems and energy logistics. Interrupt any of that, and you do not just dent growth; you puncture the very business model the Gulf states have successfully built in recent decades."

Gulf states are caught in middle of the US-Israel war on Iran. There is a way out

From Abu Dhabi to Riyadh, regional states must take steps to shape their own destinies, rather than being pawns in the Israeli-US agenda

middleeasteye.net

»Realistischer ist ein langwieriger Konflikt mit Eskalationsspitzen und ruhigeren Phasen: eine intensive Anfangsphase, gefolgt von Abnutzungskämpfen mit geringerem Tempo, in denen der Iran versucht, den Druck auf Israel und die US-Partner im Golf aufrechtzuerhalten«, meint @andreaskrieg.bsky.social.

Trump wird im Iran keinen schnellen Sieg erringen

Die USA und Israel haben Irans Kommandostruktur schwer beschädigt – doch das System ist darauf ausgelegt, Führungskrisen zu überstehen. So droht der Angriff zu einem längeren Konflikt zu werden, der in der Region und auf dem Weltmarkt für Chaos sorgt.

jacobin.de

The info of #Iran ’s networked command structure I got from the arabdigest.org podcast with defence & security analyst & Gulf specialist @andreaskrieg.bsky.social. The #US+ #Israel war against #Iran is upending security in the Gulf states & creating global anxiety & uncertainty. 1/

Arab Digest Home - Essential reading from independent sources

Arab Digest Home - where business leaders and experts on the Middle East and North Africa come together to share analysis and insight

arabdigest.org

PS the actual podcast of @billlaw49.bsky.social & @andreaskrieg.bsky.social is: podcasts.apple.com/nl/podcast/a...

Israel's strategy of chaos

Podcastaflevering · Arab Digest podcasts · 5 maart · 32 min.

podcasts.apple.com

You can find more limited commentary from some of them here. @glcarlstrom.bsky.social @ibishblog.bsky.social @kdiwan.bsky.social @arashtehran.bsky.social @valinasr.bsky.social @kristianulrichsen.bsky.social @drhahellyer.bsky.social @andreaskrieg.bsky.social @giorgiocafiero.bsky.social etc

My take ✒️ "Israel is fighting Iran to the last Gulfie" How the Gulf states became collateral damage in Israel's War and why strategic autonomy is required to neither become pawns in Israel's new "order" nor leave Iranian aggression unanswered www.middleeasteye.net/opinion/gulf...

Gulf states are caught in middle of the US-Israel war on Iran. There is a way out

From Abu Dhabi to Riyadh, regional states must take steps to shape their own destinies, rather than being pawns in the Israeli-US agenda

middleeasteye.net

" #India is a country that doesn't want to choose sides. It does not want to be pushed into certain alignments or into a zero-sum game. And that is the sort of game Netanyahu is in. That does not necessarily align with Modi’s vision for India as a great power" #Israel youtu.be/X_eyWhxxuFU

What's driving 'special relationship' between Israel and India? | Inside Story

YouTube video by Dr Andreas Krieg

youtu.be

“With elections due later this year, Netanyahu has a clear incentive to project statesmanship and to argue that #Israel isn't diplomatically isolated and that it can still convene meaningful regional and extra-regional partnerships,” said @andreaskrieg.bsky.social www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/2/...

What’s Netanyahu’s planned ‘hexagon’ alliance – and can it work?

Analysts call PM Benjamin Netanyahu’s alliance pitch a 'fantasy world' as Israel faces growing international isolation.

aljazeera.com

This is, unfortunately, true. “Whoever you are speaking to at the moment across the Gulf, even including Bahrainis, they see the Emiratis as the odd one out and Saudi Arabia as the one that is on the right side of history,” @andreaskrieg.bsky.social told Amwaj.media

Where the Saudi-UAE rift Leaves Oman, Qatar

Tensions between Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) have long simmered beneath the surface. However, developments in southern and eastern Yemen in Dec. 2025 and Jan. 2026 made such fricti...

amwaj.media

“Whoever you are speaking to at the moment across the Gulf, even including Bahrainis, they see the Emiratis as the odd one out and Saudi Arabia as the one that is on the right side of history,” Krieg told Amwaj.media. amwaj.media/en/article/w...

Where the Saudi-UAE rift Leaves Oman, Qatar

Tensions between Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) have long simmered beneath the surface. However, developments in southern and eastern Yemen in Dec. 2025 and Jan. 2026 made such fricti...

amwaj.media

Academia needs a reckoning about Epstein. Not only in terms of the amount of lechery & sexual harassment that flies beneath the radar—and it’s a lot. But also about the tendency, deeply embedded amongst university leaderships, to hire & kiss up to the criminally immoral.

Diane Purkiss@janetanderson.bsky.social · 6mo ago

Epstein’s Ties With Academics Show the Seedy Side of College Fund-Raising www.nytimes.com/2026/02/16/u... It’s quite cute that the New York Times had no idea that fundraising had a seedy side until now. It goes back to Cecil Rhodes and Codrington at Oxford.

My take on the #UAE's Brotherhood conspiracy theory and the far-Right: "It is a dangerous attempt to shape discourse, influence attitudes, polarise constituencies, and ultimately subvert policymaking in the UK" www.middleeasteye.net/opinion/brit...

Britain must reject the UAE's Brotherhood bogeyman

The Islamist bogeyman of the “Muslim Brotherhood” is back as a catch-all scarecrow wielded by networks fuelled by the UAE and Israel

middleeasteye.net

As Bibi arrives in DC: "Now the #Gulf has to balance between an Iran that has been largely passive and reactive since October 7th and an #Israel that has been erratic, impulsive and hyper activist in pursuit of short to midterm security interests." www.andreaskrieg.com/post/the-gul...

"The #UAE have a long history of delegating statecraft to surrogates and intermediaries, working through networks and creating interdependencies they can weaponize" #Libya #Sudan #Ethiopia #Somalia #Yemen Listen here www.youtube.com/watch?v=9Hff...

"There is an agreement on a framework of a nuclear deal... Qatar and Oman believe that this can be a first step into something that in a first instance looks like the JCPOA 2.0 to which other elements can be added such as missiles. But it is tiny steps at the time" youtu.be/3mZ1xHYJX1k

"Slightly closer to diplomatic off-ramp with Iran than war this week"

YouTube video by Dr Andreas Krieg

youtu.be

"The Saudis have a unique moment right now to lead the region, especially at a time when many actors feel increasingly alienated by the Emirates....the mindset and strategic culture of Abu Dhabi is fundamentally different. Under pressure, they push back — they don’t fold..." youtu.be/bEBROI1f6NQ

"As @andreaskrieg.bsky.social from King’s College London, told Al Jazeera, this [Board of Peace] offers a “direct line to the White House” and “buys them insurance” against future exclusion." www.the-independent.com/news/world/m...

‘We can do pretty much anything we want’: Trump’s peace board is absurd and worrying

Trump’s new enterprise is the clearest sign yet of his expansionist-interventionist intent – and however bizarre, we should take note, chief international correspondent Bel Trew writes

the-independent.com

"@andreaskrieg.bsky.social has described the #UAE’s regional network as an “axis of secessionists.” “Abu Dhabi is comfortable operating below the threshold of formal statecraft, building influence through a web of intermediaries" www.washingtonpost.com/world/2026/0...

After Yemen rift, Saudi Arabia aims to oust UAE from wider region

Saudi Arabia, alarmed by what it sees as aggressive moves by its onetime ally, is working to counter the influence the UAE has built around the Red Sea.

washingtonpost.com

@andreaskrieg.bsky.social adds "inside #Iran, collective action remains largely leaderless and networked: Local mobilization, social ties, workplace dynamics, and university ecosystems produce bursts of coordinated protest without an integrated command structure" www.dw.com/en/albania-w...

Albania: What role does the MEK play in the Iran protests?

Some 3,000 members of the opposition People's Mujahedeen Organization of Iran (MEK) are sheltering in Albania. It has been claimed that the MEK plays an important role in the protests in Iran. Some ex...

dw.com

My piece for @aljazeera.com ✍️ "Donald Trump has boxed himself in by promising to ‘help’ #Iran’s protesters. But he has few good options for military operations that he can control" Looking at scenarios for US military strikes on Iran www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/1/...

Analysis: Why a ‘quick and clean’ US attack on Iran won’t be easy

Donald Trump has boxed himself in by promising to 'help' Iran's protesters. But he has few good options.

aljazeera.com

@andreaskrieg.bsky.social has called the movement of the blocks a "tool for territorial engineering". "By keeping the legal line on the map and the physical blocks hundreds of metres apart, Israel preserves the ability to shift where Gazans live, move and farm" www.linkedin.com/redir/redire...

Israel moves Yellow Line deeper into Gaza, satellite images show

Israel placed and later moved control markers in three areas, with placed deeper inside Gaza than maps suggested.

linkedin.com