Andy Garin
@andygarin.bsky.social
Labor economist @ Carnegie Mellon University. Fan of rail ferries, portage railways, transporter bridges, and funiculars.
Tenured and grateful. Grateful to be at a special place like Heinz with wonderful colleagues, for my advisors and mentors, for all the collaborators, students, and research assistants I’ve worked with and learned from, and to my family for being on this ride with me.
No, it didn't. open.substack.com/pub/besttrou...
What the Challenger Layoff Tracker Really Measures
Why announced layoffs often diverge from the government’s layoff data.
open.substack.com
Aaron Rupar@atrupar.com · 2mo agoCNN: "AI drove the number of layoffs to the highest May total since 2020, back when covid had paralyzed the economy"
Thrilled to see this paper in print. What started as a Medicaid managed care natural experiment produced some of the best evidence we have on coverage restriction effects. www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=...
The Private Provision of Public Services: Evidence from Random Assignment in Medicaid
(June 2026) - This paper examines the effects of privatizing social health insurance. We exploit a natural experiment in Medicaid, wherein nearly 100,000 enrollees were randomly assigned between a pub...
aeaweb.org
A suppressed 2022 report at Yale found significant growth in many units (though the reasons were difficult to be certain of, absent cooperation from the administration). campuspress.yale.edu/facultyforya...
My public research university literally has a cattle ranch
The New York Times@nytimes.com · 3mo agoIn @nytopinion.nytimes.com The problem on college campuses is not just that students lack civility, Michal Leibowitz writes, but that “our college education does almost nothing to develop the sense that what we do in our day-to-day lives resonates with people beyond ourselves.”
The gloomy headlines about the future of American higher ed been seemingly relentless. But the discourse is missing some basic(and surprising) facts about what’s actually happening right now. Here are 10....
Also, surprisingly, even applies to Bomberman 64: The Second Attack!
Stephen Bush@stephenkb.bsky.social · 3mo agoA highly enjoyable bit of cultural convergent evolution is that His Dark Materials has the same narrative structure as a 90s JRPG: First level: you, your childhood friend who will ultimately die have childish hijinks! Final level: you, your love interest and a motley crew fight God
"no one wants to work at 3 am anymore". They never did!
It's true that a "downside" or rising working class wages is that goods and services that are very labor intensive, like fast food and taxis will become more expensive. There will be increased competition for housing. The media *only* reported and emphasized these downsides.
It's a very odd feeling to read that the cost of your firing was $20 billion to the US economy. Studies like this are so important. It's hard to put a value on a public service. Trustworthy economic data is vital to so much economic activity in a $29 trillion economy. Worth your time to read.
Michael R Strain@michaelrstrain.bsky.social · 3mo ago🚨New paper. 🧵Our baseline estimate implies that preserving trust in the integrity and quality of official statistics generates economic benefits of about $25 for every $1 spent on the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics's budget. cc: @nickbloom.bsky.social, @ericagroshen.bsky.social, #econsky
Absolutely extraordinary. The Democrats conceded *nothing* and got everything they demanded. They said no ICE/CBP funding, and that's precisely what happened. In other words, they did not cave. At all. But the GOP did—completely.
Sahil Kapur@sahilkapur.bsky.social · 3mo agoHouse passes the Senate-approved DHS funding bill by a voice vote. It funds everything in DHS except ICE/CBP, including TSA, FEMA, Coast Guard, CISA. This ends a 75-day shutdown. Bill now goes to Trump to become law. www.nbcnews.com/politics/con...
We are still interviewing for research assistants at the Philly Fed for this cycle. It’s a great opportunity for students who want to get more experience with research and there are lots of development opportunities rb.wd5.myworkdayjobs.com/en-US/FRS/jo...
Research Assistant/Sr. Research Assistant
Company Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia Job Description Summary Research assistants (RAs) at the Philadelphia Fed play a key role in the Economic Research Department. Whether they are helping eco...
rb.wd5.myworkdayjobs.com
OK, time for a game! These charts show employment for a selection of detailed industries (4-digit NAICS) vs their prepandemic (2012-2019) trend. Which ones, if any, seem to show the effect of AI? (Chat GPT launch shown for reference.) I'll post a version with industry labels in a bit. #EconSky
Unpopular opinion alert: Chuck Schumer deserves credit for keeping his caucus in line until Republicans folded.
Matthew Gertz@mattgertz.bsky.social · 4mo agoSenate Democrats held firm for weeks forcing Senate Republicans to capitulate. www.politico.com/news/2026/03...
I don't know how to speak about being Jewish right now. michaelianblack.substack.com/p/my-only-pr...
My Only Prayer
We sat shiva when my mom died.
michaelianblack.substack.com
Some personal news: This is my last week at The Washington Post. I’ve loved so much of the last 9 years here, but my faith in the paper’s current leadership is broken beyond repair. Incredibly excited to get to work w/ the newsroom below (I start in June) Get in touch on Signal : 9178872891
max tani @maxtani.bsky.social · 5mo agoAs we first reported in last night's @semafor.com media newsletter, NOTUS is rebranding/dramatically expanding. In a memo to staff this morning, the organization said it plans to "launch this new version of NOTUS under a new name" and double staff from 50 to 100.
WaPo Deputy Opinion Editor is just straight up lying about Mamdani's estate tax proposal (in both tweets and an op-ed). The bill contains a $1.75 million primary residence exemption, exempts retirement accounts, and the 50% marginal rate doesn’t kick in until $30 million.
Speaking as a Jew living in Diaspora, who needs to exist as a minority at a time of rising antisemitism, I would really appreciate it if the Prime Minister of a country where I do not live would not say that attacks on a sovereign country are analogous to attacks on a synagogue.
Cool paper and highlights the trade-offs often involved in policy, especially with new employment relationships like in the gig economy. As the author says, the way to actually increase pay for workers is to have barriers to entry (1/4)
Andy Garin@andygarin.bsky.social · 5mo agoData-driven research, at its best, presents you with results that surprise you. 😲 When I began studying Seattle's minimum pay standard for delivery drivers, I personally expected to see high-attachment delivery drivers making more money after the policy went into effect. 1/13
Data-driven research, at its best, presents you with results that surprise you. 😲 When I began studying Seattle's minimum pay standard for delivery drivers, I personally expected to see high-attachment delivery drivers making more money after the policy went into effect. 1/13
NBER@nber.org · 5mo agoFeatured in the latest Digest: Impact of Minimum Pay Rules on Gig Delivery Drivers www.nber.org/digest/20260...
Good post by @joshgans.bsky.social on why the scientific publishing system will not collapse from the rise of AI-supported research. open.substack.com/pub/joshuaga...
Journopoclypse!
Yeah, na. I don't think so
open.substack.com
Excited to join the panel "Innovation, Production, and Supply Chains in Critical Technologies" at CMU moderated by @andygarin.bsky.social and Erica Fuchs this Wednesday, 2/26 at 2pm! If you're in Pittsburgh, come say hi! www.cs.cmu.edu/calendar/197...
Event
cs.cmu.edu
Person who was fired here - you should still trust BLS data. The agency is being run by the same dedicated career staff who were running it while I was awaiting confirmation from the Senate. And the staff have made it clear that they are blowing a loud whistle if there is interference.
core part of the ostensible economic justification for mass deportation was that Americans would rush in to take all the jobs immigrants left, but now unemployment rates for native born Americans are rising and the admin is sending people out to do damage control
Aaron Rupar@atrupar.com · 6mo agoPeter Navarro: "The jobs report comes out tomorrow. We have to revise our expectations down significantly for what a monthly job number should look like ... Wall Street has to adjust for the fact that we're deporting millions of illegals out of the job market."
This is tremendous. Take the time to watch it.
Arizona Right Watch@azrww.bsky.social · 6mo agoHighlighting the speaker who stood in front of the Surprise mayor and told him to consider what the Mayor of Ohrdruf must’ve thought before he died by suicide: “He might have thought ‘how is this my fault I had no jurisdiction over this’ maybe he said ‘this site was not subject to local zoning.’”
