I'm deeply honored and grateful to join the 2026 class of #CarnegieFellows! My project will focus on polarization & representation in local governments. I hope this work will also yield insights about how to reduce polarization in state governments & Congress. www.carnegie.org/awards/honor...

Christopher S. Warshaw | Carnegie Corporation of New York

carnegie.org

PlanScore just added scenarios to play with the implications of various swings in vote share for US House elections. For instance, it thinks current generic ballot (7 point shift from 2024 = D+5 generic ballot) implies about 230 seats for Democrats. planscore.org#!predict7D-u...

PlanScore

PlanScore is a first-of-its-kind gerrymandering scoring service for new district plans, allowing users to upload maps and instantly receive projected data about their partisan consequences. You can al...

planscore.org

We made some big upgrades to the PlanScore website. You can now design your own scenario to examine potential outcomes in state legislative and congressional districting plans. On any new plan, you can change incumbency, vote margins, and the base election that PlanScore uses for the projection.

PlanScore@planscore.org · 5mo ago

Getting ready for the 2026 mid-terms, every PlanScore analysis page moving forward will now feature a new scenario adjustment tool to make it easy to change, view, and share potential outcomes that may differ from 2024 medium.com/planscore/pl... Try with this NC map: planscore.org/plan.html?20...

Working on updates to my elections syllabus. What's the best 538/Upshot/Strength in Numbers style analysis of the impact of inflation/affordability on the 2022, 2024, and/or 2025 elections? Academic literature on this is pretty thin.

Correct link here dynamicdemocracy.us

Jake Grumbach@jakemgrumbach.bsky.social · 7mo ago

🚨 the best state policy & public opinion database is now online. ~200 (!!!) state policies and 80 public opinion series on abortion, labor, taxes, environment, guns, education… dynamicdemocracy.shinyapps.io Massive public goods provision from @devincaughey.bsky.social & @chriswarshaw.bsky.social

We're excited to release version 1.0 of the Dynamic Democracy website. It includes updated data on state policy, public opinion, mass ideology, and representation. The website enables you to see how these measures are changing overtime across states and within states. www.dynamicdemocracy.us

Please share - @pewresearch.org wants to hire a data archivist who will be an advocate for data users, helping to ensure that our datasets are easy to discover and reuse by researchers, journalists, and the public. pewtrusts.wd5.myworkdayjobs.com/CenterExtern...

I was grateful to be quoted in this great early look at the midterms in today's Washington Post. As I told the reporter, I think the redistricting wars are basically a draw in the short-term, but the long-term loser is American democracy. www.washingtonpost.com/politics/202...

Does anyone have recommendations for good texts for undergrads or masters students that compare/contrast the basic institutional setup of state and local governments? (e.g., council/manager systems in local governments)

PoliSci Friends- I'm updating some MRP-based public opinion estimates. Anyone willing to share micro data from recent nationally representative surveys you've run (e.g., CES modules) that ask one or more batteries of binary questions about the American public's issue/policy preferences?

Even accounting for the new congressional maps, a swing like Aftyn Behn's (Trump+22 to D-8.6) would net Dems 259 seats in the midterms. Even if the swing is *half* of tonight's, Dems win the House with 229 seats Data: docs.google.com/spreadsheets...

Our new U.S. House map is the first to track nationwide partisan skew in the evolving 2025/2026 mid-decade redistricting planscore.org#!2026-ushouse

I wonder if the United States can learn anything from the last time a major industrialized country decided to isolate itself from the rest of the world? Almost a decade after the Brexit vote, GDP in the UK is around 6-8% lower relative to peer countries. (Source: www.nber.org/papers/w34459)

Love to have this all in one spot. The ANES truly is a gift.

Nick Valentino@nickvalentino.bsky.social · 9mo ago

ANES Data Release! electionstudies.org/data-center/... The 3-wave ANES panel is now available. It merges data from 3 election studies (2016-2020-2024), the first time the ANES has collected interviews of the same respondents across 3 presidential elections.

We’re adding this and other maps from this year’s fast-moving midcycle redistricting to our library of current plans: - Ohio planscore.org/library/ohio/ - North Carolina planscore.org/library/nort... - California planscore.org/library/cali... - Texas planscore.org/library/texas/

The Downballot@the-downballot.com · 9mo ago

Thanks to the invaluable @redistrictnet.bluesky.bot, @donnermaps.bsky.social has uploaded the Ohio redistricting commission’s new proposed congressional map to @davesredist.bsky.social Screenshot shaded to 2024 presidential results. davesredistricting.org/maps#viewmap...

It is finally finished and released! I was proud to be a member of the Task Force on 2024 Pre-Election Polling, and to play just a small role in producing this report. Here is the report: aapor.org/wp-content/u... And here is the Executive Summary: aapor.org/wp-content/u...

My Philadelphia Inquirer op-ed w @chriswarshaw.bsky.social, "Gerrymandering is Bad. Expanding it is even worse," is out. 1 limit on gerrymandering -> inability to see the future. If the parties redraw district boundaries every cycle, anti-democratic biases grow. www.inquirer.com/opinion/comm...

Gerrymandering is bad. Expanding it is even worse. | Opinion

Constant redistricting of electoral maps is likely to make congressional elections even less competitive.

inquirer.com

Although the Callais case at SCOTUS involves a high-profile congressional redistricting dispute, important to remember that most Section 2 cases (2/3!) continue to involve local government bodies like city councils & school boards. - mostly challenges to at-large systems.

need Sunday reading? explore what's on the ballot next month! I put together the 180+ key races you should know about, across 32 states. so explore, & find the ones that interest you the most, here: boltsmag.org/whats-on-the... and let me highlight three under-radar races, in 🧵 below. ⬇️

This looks awesome.

G Elliott Morris@gelliottmorris.com · 10mo ago

we have been working on this new polling aggregation website for a few months now, and are excited to share it with the world! plenty more features and polls to come.

In recent years, white turnout has spiked. But turnout among Black and other non-white Americans has stagnated. @devincaughey.bsky.social, Bernard Fraga, @rpgriffin.bsky.social & I have a summary in @goodauth.bsky.social of our work on turnout in U.S. elections. goodauthority.org/news/2024-br...

2024 brought high voter turnout – but a growing racial gap

New data shows that while white turnout has spiked, turnout among Black and other non-white Americans has stagnated.

goodauthority.org

I think this is one of the more important articles I've written in my career. Draws on lots of research and data. I hope it can be a reference for people and that it will make a positive impact. Goes out to all Strength In Numbers readers tomorrow morning: www.gelliottmorris.com/p/most-polls...

for the weekend crowd: take a moment today to explore what's on the ballot next month! it's not all about NYC, VA, and NJ: i put together a guide of the 180+ key races you should know about, across 32 states. explore, & find the ones that interest you the most, here: boltsmag.org/whats-on-the...

I'm excited to share that we're running a junior faculty search in American politics. Proud to see GWU continue to invest in political science. Link: www.gwu.jobs/postings/122...

Has someone done an analysis of whether there’s a correlation between the racial composition of districts and Dem’s relative performances vs 2024 in special elections? @the-downballot.com @gelliottmorris.com

PlanScore now has 2024 precinct-level election data integrated into its analysis (mostly from official sources compiled by the NYT for its national map) for about 25 states. You can use it to check the fairness of maps in your state.

Chris Warshaw@chriswarshaw.bsky.social · 11mo ago

We're slowly integrating 2024 presidential vote into the @planscore.org model for evaluating the fairness of new districting plans. You can now score maps using 2024 precinct data in CA, TX, and MO. More states coming soon. planscore.org

@davesredist.bsky.social continues to be an invaluable resource for scholars and practitioners around redistricting.

Dave's Redistricting@davesredist.bsky.social · 11mo ago

We added 2024 election data for NC and MO, thanks to @redistdatahub.bsky.social !! And 2024 election data for KS, thanks to @brianamos.com (IKE Lab, VEST). And recently 2024 election data for MN, thanks to the MN State Government!!!

Really enjoyed this discussion about the impacts of partisan redistricting and gerrymandering for control of Congress.

Matt Grossmann@mattgrossmann.bsky.social · 11mo ago

Will Partisan Redistricting Tip Congress? New #ScienceOfPolitics with Eric McGhee and Daniel Kolliner www.niskanencenter.org/will-partisa...

I remain puzzled by people who think everything is at risk and conclude that we should do exactly what they already wanted www.nytimes.com/2025/09/18/o... Liberalism used to be obsessed with tradeoffs (the basis of all Slate pitches!) and would mock tradeoff denialism on the right. Not any more.

Hey DC-area friends - you should subscribe to the non-profit Banner's new Montgomery County vertical. They have 8 full-time journalists covering Montgomery County issues. Super exciting! www.thebanner.com/montgomery/

The Banner: Montgomery County News, Maryland Politics, Business, Food, Events

The Banner delivers vital, independent journalism for Maryland. Stay informed on local news, sports, business and culture. Subscribe today.

thebanner.com

The Banner Montgomery@bannermoco.bsky.social · 11mo ago

Meet The Banner Montgomery newsroom buff.ly/nDRBXpG