🌊The tropical Pacific shifts towards El Niño-like conditions under ongoing warming and does not recover for centuries after emissions cease. @adisen99.bsky.social @unimelb.edu.au @21stcenturyweather.bsky.social 👉Read more here: www.nature.com/articles/s43...

Ocean thermal inertia sustains a tropical Pacific mean state shift under net zero - Communications Earth & Environment

The tropical Pacific shifts towards El Niño-like conditions under ongoing warming and does not recover for centuries after emissions cease, according to climate model simulations spanning centennial t...

nature.com

🌏 Our new paper is out today in Communications Earth & Environment: “Ocean thermal inertia sustains a tropical Pacific mean state shift under net zero” 💡 Read The Conversation piece: bit.ly/3TExNUt 📖 Read the full study here: www.nature.com/articles/s43...

Extreme El Niños are coming. Reaching net zero sooner means facing fewer of them

The El Niño climate pattern has long influenced weather across the globe.

theconversation.com

With @sclark.bsky.social @adisen99.bsky.social Pardeep Pall @meinshausen.bsky.social Ruchit Kulkarni and Boying Lyu @21stcenturyweather.bsky.social @unimelb.edu.au

Wednesday El Niño update - Unsurprisingly, sea surface temperatures still remain record warm across the central Pacific. But when discussing headlines like the “strongest” El Niño, it’s an oversimplification to ignore the role of long-term tropical warming (from climate change). Data: OISSTv2.1 🌊

🌊 An exceptional El Niño is forecast to peak in late 2026. New preprint with @andrewkingclimate.bsky.social and @climatefreund.bsky.social: how unusual would it be, and how much has climate change contributed? Currently under review, and comments/feedback are welcome: doi.org/10.31223/X54...

In our new preprint, members of 'Fresh Eyes on CMIP' led by @flossie-brown.bsky.social and @sabinebischof.bsky.social synthesise key systematic biases across the Earth System in @wcrp-cmip.org CMIP models across different generations. egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/20...

Fresh Eyes on CMIP Model Biases: Diagnosing Biases Across CMIP Generations and Implications for CMIP7

Abstract. The Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) simulates standardized experiments spanning historical, future, and hypothetical conditions, to better understand the Earth system's evolutio...

egusphere.copernicus.org

Yes that’s us! Check our latest ENSO forecast here 👉 uhslc.soest.hawaii.edu/research/ENS...

School of Ocean and Earth Science and Technology@soest.hawaii.edu · 6mo ago

Researchers from University of Hawai‘i at Mānoa created a simple ocean-based model to predict El Niño and La Niña 15 months ahead using ocean surface temperature and height data. It achieves forecast skill similar to complex models. The current forecast predicts a strong El Niño later this year. 🌊

New analysis by @ember-energy.org showcases the transition from fossil fuel to clean energy being fast tracked in India compared to China and the Global North. This transition in the developing world will play a big role in determining our GHG emissions pathway in the 21st century.

La Nina + neg IOD = cold Australia, right? Not anymore. Just released: "2025 was Australia's 4th warmest year since national temperature records began in 1910. For Australia as a whole, the national annual average temperature was 1.23 °C above the 1961–1990 average" www.bom.gov.au/climate/curr...

2 new papers by Cooper, Armour & co use past climates, from the Last Glacial Maximum 21,000 yrs ago & the Pliocene 2.6-5.3 million yrs ago, to infer that the planet will warm about 3 degrees C for a doubling of CO2 as a best estimate for present day. doi.org/10.1126/scia... doi.org/10.1073/pnas...

Last Glacial Maximum pattern effects reduce climate sensitivity estimates

Ice sheet–driven temperature patterns amplified glacial cooling, implying less future warming than previously estimated.

doi.org

One advantage of transferring the legacy SSP web database to the new #ScenarioServices infrastructure... You can can now query SSP scenarios directly via the #python package #pyam_iamc 🎉 Check out the tutorial at ssp.apps.ece.iiasa.ac.at/documentatio... github.com/iamconsortiu...

GitHub - IAMconsortium/pyam: Analysis & visualization of energy & climate scenarios

Analysis & visualization of energy & climate scenarios - IAMconsortium/pyam

github.com

With ongoing climate negotiations at COP30 in Brazil, here is a brief primer written by @andrewkingclimate.bsky.social and I on the strides we have made to improve our understanding of Earth's climate and its changes. Now we need ambitious climate policies!!! theconversation.com/what-do-we-k...

What do we know about climate change? How do we know it? And where are we headed?

Cimate scientists are more certain than ever that humans are changing the climate – but there are signs of hope on the horizon.

theconversation.com

In this article @adisen99.bsky.social and I take stock of where the Earth's climate is at and where we're heading. Climate action has never been more critical #COP30 theconversation.com/what-do-we-k...

What do we know about climate change? How do we know it? And where are we headed?

Cimate scientists are more certain than ever that humans are changing the climate – but there are signs of hope on the horizon.

theconversation.com

It was a pleasure to be involved in this. Not a pleasure that it was necessary, but seeing around 80 scientists come together to defend scientific integrity, led brilliantly by Andrew, filled me with pride.

Andrew Dessler@andrewdessler.com · last yr.

Our 400+ page comment on the DOE climate working group report is now out. Our conclusion: The merchants of doubt are back, and they're coming for climate science.

📑 The first IPCC Assessment report came out in 1990. Prior to 1990, most parts of the world had already seen an increase in regional temperatures. Post 1990, regions with a high Human Development Index have seen the rate of warming increase. agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10....

www.economist.com/interactive/... This very insightful recent article in Economist tackles the topic of the delicate balance in aerosol pollution and GHG induced warming, and this balance is critical in developing regions in South Asia.

If India chokes less, it will fry more

Pollution may have shielded it from the worst of global warming. That will change

economist.com

After the March 2021 floods, which had a similar pattern of unrelenting moist air over the east coast and a cut-off low, we quantified how likely these events may be in the future.

Guardian Australia@australia.theguardian.com · last yr.

Drowned herds. Towns underwater. Farmers in NSW are facing ‘absolute devastation’

Wrote a short piece for Indian readers who often think reducing air pollution will reduce climate impacts, also featuring @adisen99.bsky.social's paper. Many were shocked, and it started conversations on why India is surprisingly cool with ~0.7 °C of total warming! www.thehindu.com/sci-tech/ene...

India’s vital efforts to tackle air pollution could worsen warming

Study warns rapid reduction of aerosol emissions without greenhouse gas reduction could expose vulnerable populations to extreme heat.

thehindu.com

Have you wondered what causes Australia's droughts? Why sometimes the expected rainfall just doesn't come? Our newly published review explains! Read the full article here: rdcu.be/eeZHX

Physical mechanisms of meteorological drought development, intensification and termination: an Australian review

Communications Earth & Environment - Australia experiences meteorological droughts due to insufficient moisture transport and heavy precipitation, which are influenced by climate variability...

rdcu.be

Fascinating paper by @ccrc.bsky.social “Damage to world GDP in 2100 under SSP5-8.5 increases from ∼11% under models without global weather to ∼40% if global weather is included. Further … welfare-optimal amount of climate changes from ∼2.7C to ∼1.7C.” dx.doi.org/10.1088/1748...

Australian coral reefs are currently ranging from 'bleach watch' to 'bleaching and most dying' categories. Be nice to see at least one 'no stress' sight, but hey... www.theguardian.com/environment/...

Scenes from the incredible turnout today at Berkeley's @standupforscience.bsky.social rally. @tedmiguel.bsky.social, @jenniferdoudna.bsky.social, and dozens of researchers, elected officials, and citizens defended science and the jobs, health benefits, and progress it creates for all Americans.

Onshore intensification of subtropical western boundary currents in a warming climate Inducing warming that worsens coastal marine heatwaves, reduces the ocean's capacity to absorb CO2, and destabilizes methane hydrates on the sea floor www.nature.com/articles/s41...

Onshore intensification of subtropical western boundary currents in a warming climate - Nature Climate Change

Western boundary currents flow along the western edge of subtropical oceans, transporting heat polewards, and are integral in the climate system. Using high-resolution models, this work shows that wes...

nature.com

Science is necessary, but clearly not sufficient, for conveying the climate crisis https://go.nature.com/3XjoJCU

How scientists can drive climate action: celebrate nature and promote hope

Nature - After years of storytelling and running classes and festivals, I’ve seen first-hand how a love of nature makes people want to protect it.

go.nature.com

As extreme weather and the cost of energy dominates the headlines, knowing how to separate fact from fiction is more important than ever. Check out this week’s Changing Climate’s article tackling some of the fishy information out there: bit.ly/changing-climates-articles

Ocean has been losing its SST damping capacity (see Figure) since 1982 due to increased stratification, allowing SST anomalies and the associated climate and extreme weather events to attain stronger amplitude and persist longer. 🌊🧪 www.nature.com/articles/s41...

Look for the good news when you can. ☀️

Leah Stokes@leahstokes.bsky.social · 2y ago

The news getting you down? I invite you to stare at this chart of solar and wind deployed capacity in China. They blew past their ambitious 2030 target... last July.

If Australia wants to keep pace with other countries (let alone be a leader in science and innovation) then clearly this needs to change. www.abc.net.au/news/2025-01...

Alex loves doing her PhD, but says she's earning under the minimum wage

Alexandra Paton, who researches how to manage feral cat populations, says her PhD is important for Australia's wildlife but her income is lower than what she earned as a teenager at Macca's.

abc.net.au

The impact of ENSO on regional rainfall is nonlinear, which can have a severe impact on regional hydroclimate variability. In this new paper with @andrewkingclimate.bsky.social and @drjobrown.bsky.social, we assess CMIP6 models in capturing this nonlinearity - doi.org/10.1029/2024...

As relevant to the current fire situations, this new research highlights that in California *and* eastern Australia, we might swing more often or more intensely,from wet to dry. Such swings produce more dry fuels for fires. Bummer. For both. www.nature.com/articles/s43...

Daniel Swain@weatherwest.bsky.social · 2y ago

In a warming climate, we are seeing broad global increases in what we term "#HydroclimateWhiplash"--and thus increasingly frequent and/or intense swings between extremely wet and extremely dry conditions. Why does that matter in ths context of wildfire? www.nature.com/artic...