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Dr Luke Mansillo

@lukemansillo.com

Political scientist: public opinion, political behaviour, survey research methods, advanced democracy elections, Australian politics and racial politics. Penchant for Bayesian statistics. https://www.lukemansillo.com

269 Posts892 Follower2471 Folgt
Toni Rodon@tonirodon.bsky.social · 4w ago

Cosmopolitan citizens often express more resentment and less empathy toward communitarian citizens than vice versa link.springer.com/article/10.1...

Seeing Divides: Citizens’ Biased Perceptions of Political Cleavages - Political Behavior

Citizens’ perceptions of political divides shape democratic processes, yet we know little about how these divides are mentally represented. This article develops a conceptual framework that integrates...

link.springer.com

Brendan Nyhan@brendannyhan.bsky.social · 9mo ago

Needed - larger samples, more realism about (the lack of) heterogeneous treatment effects: -"less than a third of proposed hypotheses were supported... the largest predictor of positive exp. results was sample size" -"moderation hypotheses were rarely significant" academic.oup.com/poq/advance-...

An Audit of Social Science Survey Experiments

Abstract. Survey experiments have become a popular methodology for causal inference across the social sciences. We study the efficacy of survey experiment

academic.oup.com

European Consortium for Political Research@ecpr.bsky.social · 9mo ago

⚙️ #ecprjs26 Workshop directors 🎬 @beatrizlbuarque.bsky.social & @scopelliti.bsky.social 💡 Seeks Papers exploring the European far-right politics of truth in digital spaces buff.ly/7Zm46uu ✔️ @ecpr-ead.bsky.social endorsed ⌛ Submit by 10 Dec #CallforPapers #AI #PoliticalParties #Policymaking

The European Far-Right Politics of Truth in Digital Spaces

Joint Sessions of Workshops, 7 – 10 April 2026, University of Innsbruck

buff.ly

Paolo Crosetto@paolocrosetto.bsky.social · 9mo ago

What is the most profitable industry in the world, this side of the law? Not oil, not IT, not pharma. It's *scientific publishing*. We call this the Drain of Scientific Publishing. Paper: arxiv.org/abs/2511.04820 Background: doi.org/10.1162/qss_... Thread @markhanson.fediscience.org.ap.brid.gy 👇

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Mark A. Hanson@hansonmark.bsky.social · 9mo ago

We wrote the Strain on scientific publishing to highlight the problems of time & trust. With a fantastic group of co-authors, we present The Drain of Scientific Publishing: a 🧵 1/n Drain: arxiv.org/abs/2511.04820 Strain: direct.mit.edu/qss/article/... Oligopoly: direct.mit.edu/qss/article/...

A table showing profit margins of major publishers. A snippet of text related to this table is below. 1. The four-fold drain 1.1 Money Currently, academic publishing is dominated by profit-oriented, multinational companies for whom scientific knowledge is a commodity to be sold back to the academic community who created it. The dominant four are Elsevier, Springer Nature, Wiley and Taylor & Francis, which collectively generated over US$7.1 billion in revenue from journal publishing in 2024 alone, and over US$12 billion in profits between 2019 and 2024 (Table 1A). Their profit margins have always been over 30% in the last five years, and for the largest publisher (Elsevier) always over 37%. Against many comparators, across many sectors, scientific publishing is one of the most consistently profitable industries (Table S1). These financial arrangements make a substantial difference to science budgets. In 2024, 46% of Elsevier revenues and 53% of Taylor & Francis revenues were generated in North America, meaning that North American researchers were charged over US$2.27 billion by just two for-profit publishers. The Canadian research councils and the US National Science Foundation were allocated US$9.3 billion in that year.
Jay Van Bavel, PhD@jayvanbavel.bsky.social · 9mo ago

The race to churn out papers is a systemic problem. Early career scholars are desperate to get more papers to compete in the academic job market. This can make it hard for faculty mentors hard to reduce their output unless they shrink their lab (which removes opportunities from next generation).

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Julius Kölzer@juliusk.bsky.social · 9mo ago

Last Friday, new English Indices of Deprivation were released for the first time since 2019, measuring relative deprivation in 33,755 areas of England across multiple domains. How do these geographic disparities relate to voting patterns in the UK’s last General Election? A short thread 🧵

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Guardian Australia@australia.theguardian.com · 10mo ago

Discounted but not ‘affordable’: NSW policy to build cheaper rental apartments a boon for developers

Discounted but not ‘affordable’: NSW policy to build cheaper rental apartments a boon for developers

Developers flock to build ‘affordable’ housing – but are poised to reap benefits while tenants could pay 50% of post-tax income in rent * Get our breaking news email, free app or daily news podcast A small block of units on Clovelly Road built in 2021 was granted extra floor space so the developer could add five affordable units, taking the total development to 13. The units, three minutes’ walk from the beach, with parking and a bus stop outside, are in a highly desirable spot. But “affordable” they are not. Continue reading...

theguardian.com