Victor Araújo

@victoraraujo.bsky.social

Political scientist specialising in public opinion, public policy, and political behaviour in Latin America. Lecturer (Assist. Professor) in Comparative Politics at the University of Reading, UK.

📄 New pre-print on SSRN New evidence on a timely question: Does holding anti-democratic leaders legally accountable produce democratic backlash? Contrary to widespread concerns, I find no evidence that accountability increased affective polarisation or reduced support for democracy. 🧵👇

Does Holding Anti-Democratic Leaders Accountable Backfire? Evidence from Bolsonaro's Arrest in Brazil

Whether holding anti-democratic leaders accountable strengthens or weakens democracy remains one of the unresolved questions in contemporary debates about democ

papers.ssrn.com

ótimo uso da regressão descontínua no tempo. a prisão do Bolsonaro ocorreu de forma muito tempestiva p/ funcionar como unexpected event. de todo modo, esse achado reforça uma ideia importante, segundo a qual a lei precisa ser cumprida em regimes democráticos, mesmo q isso contrarie os mais radicais.

Victor Araújo@victoraraujo.bsky.social · 3w ago

📄 New pre-print on SSRN New evidence on a timely question: Does holding anti-democratic leaders legally accountable produce democratic backlash? Contrary to widespread concerns, I find no evidence that accountability increased affective polarisation or reduced support for democracy. 🧵👇

📄 New pre-print on SSRN New evidence on a timely question: Does holding anti-democratic leaders legally accountable produce democratic backlash? Contrary to widespread concerns, I find no evidence that accountability increased affective polarisation or reduced support for democracy. 🧵👇

Does Holding Anti-Democratic Leaders Accountable Backfire? Evidence from Bolsonaro's Arrest in Brazil

Whether holding anti-democratic leaders accountable strengthens or weakens democracy remains one of the unresolved questions in contemporary debates about democ

papers.ssrn.com

Extremely happy - and even more honoured - to be trusted with one of the most exciting journals @ejpgjournal.bsky.social to co-edit with such an amazing team, starting July 1 2026! We'll celebrate already next month at #ecpg2026newcastle 🥳 @nclpolitics.bsky.social @grahn.bsky.social

European Journal of Politics and Gender@ejpgjournal.bsky.social · 3mo ago

We are delighted to present the new editorial team of the @ejpgjournal.bsky.social ! Led by @grahn.bsky.social and @maarja.bsky.social as co-EIC, the six-strong team represents a new generation of gender and politics and LGBTQ+ politics scholars who will take the journal forward from July 2026.

I’m pleased to share a call for papers for our upcoming workshop on Elections & Political Parties in Africa and Latin America, hosted by the Centre for Political Behaviour and Policy Analysis at the University of Reading. Abstract deadline: 6 April 2026. Link for submissions 👇🏽

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🚨 Postdoctoral Position at the University of Konstanz 🚨 We’re hiring a post-doc for our @excinequality.bsky.social project on political elites and decision-making. 4-year position | Deadline: Feb. 20 | Start: Sept 2026 Please share widely 🙏 The ad is here stellen.uni-konstanz.de/jobposting/f...

Postdoctoral Position at the Cluster of Excellence “The Politics of Inequality”

Deadline: 20 February 2026, 12:00 pm CET

stellen.uni-konstanz.de

📣📣📣 GREAT, time-sensitive opportunity for senior/mid-career scholars to join us in Madrid at UC3M´s social sciences department (UC3M-ATRAE Program 2026) on an attractive pay+research funds package 📣📣📣 This does NOT happen everyday. THREAD below if this is of interest 1/n

my totally unsolicited end-of-the-semester advice to junior scholars is to keep the nice notes that students write to you in a safe place so you can reference them when things get tough in the future.

"Even if the transition succeeds — if Maduro and other compromised regime figureheads depart, the military stands down, and González assumes the presidency — Venezuela is also highly unlikely to become a peaceful democracy overnight."

How Venezuela Actually Becomes a Democracy | Journal of Democracy

The South American country may be on the verge of real change. But it isn’t going to descend into civil-war chaos like Libya. It will be difficult, imperfect, and far better than what Venezuelans have…

journalofdemocracy.org

Needed - larger samples, more realism about (the lack of) heterogeneous treatment effects: -"less than a third of proposed hypotheses were supported... the largest predictor of positive exp. results was sample size" -"moderation hypotheses were rarely significant" academic.oup.com/poq/advance-...

An Audit of Social Science Survey Experiments

Abstract. Survey experiments have become a popular methodology for causal inference across the social sciences. We study the efficacy of survey experiment

academic.oup.com