Really helpful climate graphic—can't remember seeing a plot quite like this before. www.theclimatebrink.com/p/my-new-nyt...
Ali Duffey
@aliduffey.bsky.social
Climate science | Stratospheric aerosol injection | Arctic climate change Senior Scientist at Reflective and visiting researcher at UCL
“Nobody has ever studied this carefully” said the people who spent 10 years threatening to tank the carrier of anybody daring to studying that thing carefully and systematically. I’m going to have a brain aneurysm before 40.
Paper out today on high-latitude low-altitude stratospheric aerosol injection (HiLLA-SAI). It's long, with literally 100s of sub-plots, so TL:DR: HiLLA-SAI is a polar-focused but still global intervention, with ~40-70% the global cooling efficiency of "normal" SAI esd.copernicus.org/articles/17/...
The global climate response to High-Latitude Low-Altitude Stratospheric Aerosol Injection (HiLLA-SAI)
Abstract. High-latitude low-altitude (HiLLA) Stratospheric Aerosol Injection (SAI) would face fewer logistical barriers than high-altitude low-latitude SAI, because it could use repurposed existing la...
esd.copernicus.org
On Friday, I'm talking with the head of Reflective, a nonprofit trying to accelerate the responsible research of solar radiation modification (SRM), ie, blocking some sunlight from reaching earth in order to cool the atmosphere. Geoengineering! Got questions?
Reflective | Radically Accelerating the Pace of Sunlight Reflection Research
We equip the world with the data and tools needed to make informed decisions about sunlight reflection, fast enough to matter.
reflective.org
Giving what we can has implemented a fun game where you spin a globe to see how your starting point in life would compare if you were reborn today, randomly somewhere on earth. www.givingwhatwecan.org/birth-lottery
Birth Lottery
If you were reborn today, where would you land? And how would that change your life?
givingwhatwecan.org
New paper on Marine Cloud Brightening in the Arctic! Our simulations show that the introduction of sea-salt aerosols brightens clouds in the Arctic and leads to substantial Arctic cooling, which also restores Arctic sea ice. agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/...
Reading back through @eaterofsun.bsky.social 's The Planet Remade and thought this snippet about German involvement in geoengineering research was interesting. 10 years later the opposite seems true. On the other hand, the description of GeoMIP conferences fits the recent ones pretty well..
This from @outrageoptimism.bsky.social is a great intro to recent solar geoengineering developments www.outrageandoptimism.org/episodes/jac...
Jacinda Ardern and… Is It Time to Talk About Geoengineering?
This week, hosts Tom Rivett Carnac and Paul Dickinson delve into the rapidly emerging - and faintly surreal - world of solar geoengineering.
outrageandoptimism.org
Our paper is published! 🎉🎉🎉 If you want to understand changes in total rainfall under warming, give this a read! Happy to chat about it with people :) agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/...
When Earth warms, the total rainfall increases. Here we show that this change in rainfall is also sensitive to the *pattern* of warming, build a theory to explain why, and use it to explain why rainfall increases more in uniform warming exps than abrupt-4xCO2 :) essopenarchive.org/doi/full/10....
In 2022, archaeologists at @uni-kiel.de's @neolithicbodies.bsky.social found 34 decapitated skeletons piled in a space the size of a parking spot. In the 3 years since, they’ve found 50 more. The mass grave is evidence for the collapse of the 1st pan-European culture 7,000 years ago. @science.org 🏺💀
Headless bodies hint at why Europe’s first farmers vanished
Wave of mass brutality accompanied the collapse of the first pan-European culture
science.org
@aliduffey.bsky.social and I have a new response to the Siegert et al piece on geoengineering published as a commentary in Frontiers (the online version is now properly edited with the figure).
Frontiers | Commentary: Safeguarding the polar regions from dangerous geoengineering: a critical assessment of proposed concepts and future prospects
Research into polar climate intervention is understandably controversial. The deliberate manipulation of Earth's climate has deep physical, political, an...
frontiersin.org
Should we start historical climate simulations in 1750 (or 1800) rather than 1850? Importance of beginning industrial-era climate simulations in the eighteenth century Ballinger, Schurer et al.: iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1...
In this opinion piece, two scientists argue that the growing commercial efforts to counter climate change by reflecting away sunlight will thwart responsible research in the field.
Why the for-profit race into solar geoengineering is bad for science and public trust
Two scientists argue that the growing commercial efforts to counter climate change by reflecting away sunlight will thwart responsible research in the field.
technologyreview.com
📝 Call for all Polar Researchers to take the Science under Pressure survey! Submissions deadline is 15 November 2025 Read more and take the survey: www.rug.nl/research/arc...
Science under Pressure
Science under pressure: Reflecting on conditions, practices and institutional structures for sustainable polar research
rug.nl
"when we deploy it we will see how effective is" I hear this quite a bit but it isn't true. 10 years into a hypothetical SAI deployment, observed rainfall patterns would be pretty much useless for reducing our uncertainty in e.g. indian summer monsoon impacts
Absolutely! The effect just depends on the model taken. So it's easy to meddle around... When we will deploy it we will see how effective it is and understand the side effects Sadly, we will need it... If we start we have with all we've got to reduce our emissions as otherwise its a death trap
Interesting new paper from Exeter colleague Jim Haywood, and previous @exeter.ac.uk PhD student Alice Wells about geoengineering - specifically what would sulphate aerosol injection do with respect to high levels of global warming 1/2. agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10....
A Risk‐Risk Assessment of Climate Extremes: Comparing Greenhouse Gas Warming and Stratospheric Aerosol Injection in UKESM1
This study compares the impacts on extreme events under climate change with and without a multi-latitude Stratospheric Aerosol Injection strategy in UKESM1 G6controller reduces extreme heat relat...
agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com
The NYT piece quoted here is amazing. Written over 70 years ago and reads exactly like articles about this summer's Texas Rainmaker conspiracy
Longtime climate scientist J. Michael Wallace got his start in meteorology back when pre-internet conspiracy theorists asserted that a nuclear test caused a tornado... Now he reflects on a heap of lessons learned as global warming science has piled up. revkin.substack.com/p/warming-wo... 🧪
love this chart. It's too late for 1.5, but the fight for 2C is very much still alive
Yep, while there is a growing literature on emissions and climate outcomes under current policy scenarios (and we can more firmly rule out things like 5x more coal by 2100 globally), current policies represent neither a ceiling nor floor on future emissions: journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/...
wrote about this last year and sure I wasn't in any way the only one but imo people voting for populist politics in the 21st century *is* a sign that they do just have too much faith in institutions, as opposed to not enough - they want to have their little tantrum but assume things will just hold
Is this a crisis or not? Are tipping point risks serious or not? Net zero is non-negotiable, but climate impacts are here, and all plausible emissions scenarios see us pass 1.5C. If now is not a reasonable time to explore radical ideas, when would be?
Polar #geoengineering dismissed as “unimaginably expensive” and “dangerous” Giant underwater curtains and artificial ice thickening diverts attention from cutting fossil fuel burning, climate scientists argue - but proponents disagree #climatecrisis Story by me www.theguardian.com/environment/...
One of the all-time great test matches. One of the all-time great series. Topsy-turvy, up and down and, in the end, perfectly balanced. Can't say fairer than that.
The Guardian will publish scary headlines about ice sheet and AMOC collapse on a Friday, then stuff like this on a Monday: www.theguardian.com/commentisfre... How are people supposed to navigate this? Is climate change an urgent problem, or not?
Ed Miliband would let a turbine farm destroy Brontë country. We need net zero, but at what cost? | Simon Jenkins
Of course the climate crisis must be confronted, but history, tranquility and beauty must also count for something, says Guardian columnist Simon Jenkins
theguardian.com
Given this context, I'm delighted to share a new review on the solar geoengineering and earth system tipping points. Its a long read including ice sheets, AMOC, coral reefs, Amazon dieback and various others.. TLDR: solar geo probably helps avoid tipping, but a lot more research is needed
New Scientist has a report on a controversial issue discussed last week at the #GlobalTippingPoints conference in Exeter: will we need solar radiation interference as a desperate measure, as politicians are failing to phase out fossil fuels? www.newscientist.com/article/2487...
New opportunity: Become a DSG Fellow and contribute to building critical expertise on solar geoengineering governance. Early- or mid-career and working in climate science, policy, ethics, law, or humanities with an interest in SRM? Apply now: www.sgdeliberation.org/our-work/res...
And remember that the peak temperatures you experience in SE England in the next couple of days will be 4-5°C warmer than they would have been with similar weather patterns in the climate of a century ago.
It was great fun collaborating with Robbie and others on this paper. The stability of the winter Arctic atmosphere is a big part of why it is warming so fast in that season, so its important to understand whether the models are doing a reasonable job, and if not, why.
Paper out today led by @aliduffey.bsky.social where we compare the atmospheric boundary layer in climate models to 7000 vertical profiles from Soviet ice stations + ~500 from the MOSAiC & SHEBA campaigns. More forays into the world of polar meteorology to come! dx.doi.org/10.1029/2024...
In today's post I catch up with some #geoengineering #metaphors which I have been observing since around 2009 blogs.nottingham.ac.uk/makingscienc...
Geoengineering and metaphors, 2009 to 2025: Continuity and change - Making Science Public
Since around 2006, I have been interested in speculations about geoengineering, that is, attempts to deal with climate change by directly intervening in the planet’s atmosphere, oceans, or land. Such interventions include pulling carbon dioxide from the atmosphere or dampening solar radiation. In the UK there have been three inflection points in reflections about such ...
blogs.nottingham.ac.uk
Feels like the 1.5C date has been coming towards us faster than we have been going towards it over the last few years
An underappreciated aspect of the new WMO report -- if the temperature predictions are correct, the world will pass 1.5C in as a long-term average (i.e., the _actual_ Paris goal) in 2027. In just two years. www.washingtonpost.com/climate-envi...