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Ash Splawinski

@splawinski.bsky.social

PhD candidate in political science @ UofT Researching federalism, policy design, administrative burdens, and political mobilization Previously a visiting scholar at UT Austin & CU Denver Sometimes I podcast. Listen to Nobody’s In Charge on Spotify or Apple

246 Posts336 Follower162 Folgt
Jed Kolko@jedkolko.bsky.social · 16h ago

Political encroachment in statistical methods for political goals undermines confidence in the entire statistical system. That could hurt funding, response rates, and retention of expert staff, further degrading data quality. Read more at @piie.com www.piie.com/blogs/realti...

Political meddling at the Census Bureau damages the entire US statistical system

This summer marks the worst period for US statistical integrity since President Donald Trump fired the head of the Bureau of Labor Statistics last August. Two different and seemingly uncoordinated eve...

piie.com

Pollcat, AKA Scott Keeter@pollcat.bsky.social · yesterday

Almost 70% of national polls in 2024 were weighted on party affiliation or past vote. This kind of political weighting is controversial. But evidence shows it has made polls modestly more accurate. New report: how it works, how we do it and its limits: www.pewresearch.org/methods/2026...

Weighting Polls on Party Affiliation and Past Vote

This report explains how political weighting works, how Pew Research Center does it, and some of its limitations.

pewresearch.org

Shefali Luthra@shefali.bsky.social · 2d ago

Big news: The family of Tierra Walker, who died after she couldn't get an abortion, is suing a slate of Texas actors in state court, including AG Ken Paxton. They say the state ban is unconstitutional. This is the first suit of its kind. 19thnews.org/2026/09/texa...

Tierra Walker died after she couldn’t get an abortion. Her family is suing Ken Paxton

The case, filed Tuesday, argues that Texas’ near-total abortion ban violates the state and U.S. Constitutions, which “prohibit state actors from killing their citizens.”

19thnews.org

Molly White@molly.wiki · 3d ago

Clarity Act has just surpassed 41 NOs in the cloture vote; it will not advance to a full vote. The bill is essentially dead in the water under this Congress.

Ash Splawinski@splawinski.bsky.social · 3d ago

FOIA docs via @WIRED reveal that CFTC Enforcement authorized multiple insider-trading investigations into Polymarket event contracts this year (e.g., Biden pardon markets, Iran-related contracts).

WIRED@wired.com · 6d ago

The agency that oversees prediction markets has investigated Polymarket trades on Biden pardons and the Iran war—and even more potential insider trading at Google, documents obtained by WIRED show. www.wired.com/story/polyma...

derek guy@dieworkwear.bsky.social · 3d ago

When they eventually make a movie about this time, please don't put the male politicians in good suits. IMO, the ugly, low rent tailoring should be part of the story.

Karin Wulf@kawulf.bsky.social · 4d ago

Thanks for reading my 🧵 on the voluminous discourse on higher ed in the US. I have some (probably obv but am noting anyway) thoughts about the phenomenon of endless reflections on higher ed/ flood of higher ed takes. Why is it different fr reporting and personal essays on other industries? 1/

Karin Wulf@kawulf.bsky.social · 5d ago

After reading some of the recent pubs and discourse around US higher ed.… I should just stop right here. But here are the three major fallacies of much of what’s out there, three contexts that are missing, and the one big thing that is driving me around the bend (actually already there, but). 1/

Christopher Whitaker@civicwhitaker.com · 5d ago

If the Speaker feels they don’t have enough expertise there’s a way to bring it back - The Office of Technology Assessment! www.liberalcurrents.com/congress-nee...

Congress Needs Its Tech Experts Back

If Congress is to tackle issues from DOGE sabotage to AI to social media, it needs to resurrect its Office of Technology Assessment.

liberalcurrents.com

Aaron Rupar@atrupar.com · 5d ago

Mike Johnson punts on oversight of AI companies: "Congress is obviously less qualified than the people who are pushing this frontier to know the ins and outs of it"

The Associated Press@apnews.com · last wk.

Canada’s tariffs on about $20 billion in U.S. goods have taken effect, responding to President Trump’s latest tariffs. Here’s what to know.

What to know about Canada’s escalating trade war with the US as Carney retaliates with tariffs

Canada’s retaliatory tariffs on about $20 billion worth of U.S. goods take effect Tuesday, turning its escalating trade war with President Donald Trump into a test watched far beyond the border: Can a country much smaller than the United States stand up to Trump and succeed?

bit.ly

Ross Dahlke@rossdahlke.bsky.social · 2w ago

My MA student, Huang, and I find 16% of US adults report using Polymarket. Use is higher among those with lower incomes and less education, but similar across political parties. In both parties, use is correlated with lower civic knowledge and certain anti-democratic attitudes:

Key findings from a survey of U.S. adults about Polymarket. Any use was reported by 15.7%; 11.2% used it a moderate amount or more. Use was higher among Democrats (16.8%) and Republicans (18.0%) than Independents (10.8%); adults under 50 (about 23%) than older adults (6.5–7.0%); and Black (30.4%) and Hispanic respondents (20.1%) than White respondents (11.4%). Use declined as income and education rose and was somewhat higher among men than women. Users had varied demographic profiles. Compared with nonusers, users scored lower on a basic civics question and were more accepting of some forms of political rule-breaking and limits on debate or speech. These patterns generally appeared within each party. Image description Six grouped bar charts show self-reported Polymarket use by age, income, gender, education, party, and race and ethnicity. “Any use” was reported by 23.0% of ages 18–29, 23.5% of ages 30–49, 6.5% of ages 50–64, and 7.0% of ages 65-plus. Use declined from 19.9% among households earning under $50,000 to 9.4% among those earning $150,000 or more, and from 19.6% among adults with a high-school education or less to 12.8% among those with a four-year or postgraduate degree. Rates were 17.7% for men and 14.2% for women; 16.8% for Democrats, 10.8% for Independents, and 18.0% for Republicans; and 11.4% for White, 30.4% for Black, and 20.1% for Hispanic respondents. Image description Six grouped bar charts show self-reported Polymarket use by age, income, gender, education, party, and race and ethnicity. “Any use” was reported by 23.0% of ages 18–29, 23.5% of ages 30–49, 6.5% of ages 50–64, and 7.0% of ages 65-plus. Use declined from 19.9% among households earning under $50,000 to 9.4% among those earning $150,000 or more, and from 19.6% among adults with a high-school education or less to 12.8% among those with a four-year or postgraduate degree. Rates were 17.7% for men and 14.2% for women; 16.8% for Democrats, 10.8% for Independents, and 18.0% for Republicans; and 11.4% for White, 30.4% for Black, and 20.1% for Hispanic respondents. Image description Six grouped bar charts show self-reported Polymarket use by age, income, gender, education, party, and race and ethnicity. “Any use” was reported by 23.0% of ages 18–29, 23.5% of ages 30–49, 6.5% of ages 50–64, and 7.0% of ages 65-plus. Use declined from 19.9% among households earning under $50,000 to 9.4% among those earning $150,000 or more, and from 19.6% among adults with a high-school education or less to 12.8% among those with a four-year or postgraduate degree. Rates were 17.7% for men and 14.2% for women; 16.8% for Democrats, 10.8% for Independents, and 18.0% for Republicans; and 11.4% for White, 30.4% for Black, and 20.1% for Hispanic respondents.
Social Media Lab@socialmedialab.ca · 2w ago

"Canada’s Prime Minister Mark Carney hit back at US officials who have blamed their northern counterparts for the trade war, saying tariff talks can proceed when “Americans stop doing memes, stop throwing shade, stop trying to be tough, and start being serious about having those discussions…”"

‘Start being serious’: Canada’s Carney hits back at US officials as tariff talks stall – live

PM Mark Carney responds to US officials who blame Canada for trade war; Jamieson Greer says trade tension with Canada is ‘more their emergency than ours’

theguardian.com

Ash Splawinski@splawinski.bsky.social · 3w ago

Interesting question re: the lack of a collective political movement. I wonder if more politicians will start using burden reduction strategically given how well Mamdani’s PIT Crew has landed or if things like that will teach voters to spot “admin burden” as its own category worth organizing around.

Don Moynihan@donmoyn.bsky.social · 3w ago

New, at Can We Still Govern?: I talked to Annie Lowrey about her new book, "The Time Tax" on the administrative burdens that people encounter when they interact with the safety net. On HR1: "People are going to die. Health clinics are going to shut down." donmoynihan.substack.com/p/annie-lowr...

Ash Splawinski@splawinski.bsky.social · 3w ago

1) Fun fact: Ontario comes from a Haudenosaunee word that means “great lake” or “sparkling waters” 2) Neither country can unilaterally officially change the name 3) “Lake America” isn’t a policy position, it’s just a conformity test. The more incoherent the demand, the purer the loyalty test.

Greg Sargent@gregsargent.bsky.social · 3w ago

Trump is losing to Iran. He's failing to curb inflation. He's failing to bring back factory jobs. He isn't boosting economic growth. He's empowering Russia and China. He's world-historically unpopular. But he can scribble "Lake America" with a big crayon on a map. Is that MAGA's consolation prize?

Ash Splawinski@splawinski.bsky.social · 4w ago

Also, we’ve all seen how he treats actual U.S. states when they’re not politically useful to him. We’ve seen the funding fights, disaster aid held up, and feuds with governors. So, like…

Ash Splawinski@splawinski.bsky.social · 4w ago

Trump says Canada wants “the benefits of being a State, without being one.” But Canada will never ask to be a state. Right now, it’s asking to be treated as an equal trading partner, rather than a hostile adversary you can hit with 50% tariffs on a whim. www.ctvnews.ca/world/trumps...

Ash Splawinski@splawinski.bsky.social · 4w ago

Trump says Canada wants “the benefits of being a State, without being one.” But Canada will never ask to be a state. Right now, it’s asking to be treated as an equal trading partner, rather than a hostile adversary you can hit with 50% tariffs on a whim. www.ctvnews.ca/world/trumps...

Canada wants the ‘benefits of being a state,’ says Trump. Live updates here.

On Saturday, he imposed 50 per cent tariffs on a wide range of Canadian goods, including some that fall within Canada’s free trade deal with the U.S. and Mexico.

ctvnews.ca