Courtney Shupert
@courtneyshupert.bsky.social
Economist @ macropolicyperspectives.com, OKC Thunder Fan, dog mom, musician, Presbyterian
This is not the 90s part bazilion and 6--the absolute voracious consumption of resources required for the AI buildout means the GDP deflator (economy wide inflation) is running 2.75x 1999 w. equip & intellectual prop investment inflation contributing meaningfully vs the disinflation of the 90s
In the early days of Trump’s second term, his economic advisers laid out a simple theory: Show the bond market that Washington was serious about closing its gaping deficits and long-term interest rates would fall on their own. Trump could leave the Fed alone. It hasn’t worked out that way.
The Moves That Backfired on Trump and Drove Interest Rates and Inflation Higher
The president’s own agenda has helped undermine promises to fix the economy and get the deficit under control.
wsj.com
The US President's new proposal to tax international students has been approved by the White House for release this week. It's an unprecedented $100,000 tax on int'l grads who stay to work after graduation on Optional Practical Training (most grads do), a crucial bridge to remaining by any channel.
Our Q3 Shadow Survey of Market Participants included the views of 111 respondents and we followed up with a Flash version after Aug CPI--a 25bp rate hike is now widely expected, particularly after Friday's inflation data...1/4 @laurarosner.bsky.social @courtneyshupert.bsky.social
Take our flash survey! Just a few quick questions meant to capture views after the August CPI. We greatly appreciate your participation and will publish results end of day: Link here: survey.alchemer.com/s3/8989143/M...
The Q3 Shadow Survey of Market Participants is a great way to prepare for the next two weeks--will the Fed hike? Is it dependent on the next inflation print? Provide your views and you will receive the views of ~100 others ahead of the Fed meeting. Link here: survey.alchemer.com/s3/8984436/M...
When is an economist not an economist? Do I count? My @FT column this week explores... www.ft.com/content/89f0...
Strong jobs report +162k! In part driven by a shift in seasonal factors, but with UR of 4.1% this gives the Fed plenty of room to focus more on their inflation mandate. A strong economy with more job growth, increasing GDP, and elevated inflation means policy is not meaningfully restrictive.
🇺🇸 This is so preventable... This year, US measles cases have already hit the highest level in 35 years
Labor force participation continues to shrink. The unemployment rate would have rounded up to 4.3% in July if LFP had held steady at the June level. Instead, the unrounded unemployment rate moved to 4.09%, down ~10bp from July!
They are missing the point imho, the market reaction had nothing to do with lack of forward guidance, it was a reaction to him revealing he is a faux hawk giftarticle.ft.com/giftarticle/...
Kevin Warsh to stick with lean Fed messaging despite market backlash
US central bank chair remains confident that sweeping reforms will win over key investors
giftarticle.ft.com
"Mr. Warsh, who was presiding over his second meeting as chairman, left the impression that a revised schedule could be decided on before the next meeting in mid-September, even if the changes would not be carried out until later." Kudos to @bencasselman.bsky.social and @colbylsmith.bsky.social
Ben Casselman@bencasselman.bsky.social · 2mo agoSCOOP: Kevin Warsh is considering reducing the number of Federal Reserve policy meetings. The Federal Open Market Committee has met eight times a year for decades. With @colbylsmith.bsky.social. www.nytimes.com/2026/07/31/b... #EconSky
We are at the “r/finance is posting fancams of Chair Powell set to Taylor Swift” point in the cycle of regret over Temu Greenspan.
FWIW this is the first time in about 10yrs we've had 3 dissents in favor of a hike when the majority FOMC favors holding policy (last time Sept 2016)
So all the hoopla was likely just nervousness around lack of FG, the Fed held as expected given signaling and data
A majority of small businesses in the goods and retail sectors nationally reported experiencing financial challenges due to tariffs in 2025, with even larger shares of small firms in the NY-NJ-CT region doing so. bit.ly/4wM6jKn
Overlooked? New housing law bans Fed from issuing a CBDC.
For fedwatchers now in day 2 of listening to congressional testimonies may I present: Warsh Lingo Bingo
NY FED: “.. nearly half of firms that have paid tariffs still plan additional price increases to offset these costs, with some expecting to raise prices six months or more in the future.” @scottlincicome.bsky.social libertystreeteconomics.newyorkfed.org/2026/07/more...
If kevin Warsh wants to avoid being caught with his pants down, he should avoid the BoE's communications from the 2000s... ...and confusing correlation and causation My newsletter: www.ft.com/content/8f35...
As a new Fed Chair casts doubt on offical statistics after the Aministration drastically cut their funding, it is worth remembering how and why we created federal statistics agencies in the first place...they reduce scope for gaslighting the public www.aeaweb.org/articles/pdf...
We *LOVED* technology in the 90s b/c it was making our lives better AND our wages and opportunities were booming, simply not the envionement we are in. Is that around the corner? That is decidedly not what companies are saying in their earnings reports H/T @courtneyshupert.bsky.social
NEW: How Warsh has begun to change the Fed Weeks into his chairmanship, Warsh's approach has taken shape – embrace aspects of how the Fed has historically operated but make clear that change is afoot gift link: www.nytimes.com/2026/06/29/b... @nytimes.com
How Warsh Has Begun to Change the Fed
nytimes.com
BLS response rate issues have made the household survey data noisier and in 2025 they quietly changed the precision thresholds. A recent GAO report noted a 0.3pp change in the unemployment rate is now required to count as statistically significant, up from 0.2pp. files.gao.gov/reports/GAO-...
Kevin Warsh may want a quieter Fed, but markets will fill the silence, just less reliably and at a high cost. Who—or what—becomes the “shadow Fed Chair” when the real one won’t talk? My latest: stayathomemacro.substack.com/p/will-the-s...
Will the Shadow Fed Chair Please Stand Up?
Kevin Warsh may want a quieter Fed, but markets will fill the silence, just less reliably and at a high cost.
stayathomemacro.substack.com
Death rate in ICE immigrant detention centers more than doubles under Trump, w/ @kristinacooke.bsky.social @mashatsvetkova.bsky.social www.reuters.com/legal/govern...
Death rate in ICE immigrant detention centers more than doubles under Trump, Reuters analysis finds
Some 50 people have died in U.S. immigration detention since President Donald Trump launched his mass deportation campaign in January 2025, Immigration and Customs Enforcement records show.
reuters.com
NEW: Multiple webpages on the Census Bureau's website are unavailable to the public more than a week after the Trump administration issued a ban on "noise infusion," one of the bureau's main ways of protecting people's privacy when it releases statistics
From former U.S. Census Chief Scientist John Abowd on LinkedIn, what Census data products are affected by Commerce's new policy? A devastating set of answers including all ACS Public Use Micro Samples www.linkedin.com/posts/john-a...
