#OpenAccess from @apsrjournal.bsky.social - Are Voters Myopic or Looking for Improvement? - https://cup.org/4gvG85v - MARKUS PRIOR & @talbotmandrews.bsky.social #FirstView
Vittorio Merola
@vittoriomerola.bsky.social
Political scientist at Durham University | Political behaviour, public opinion, political economy, political psychology - anything that helps me understand why people view the world the way they do
We need to change norms around sexual harassment Yesterday Tessa West spoke up about a sexual harassment complaint she filed against John Jost. Not only is he a senior colleague in the dept of psychology, but he is one of the most prominant figures in the field of social and political psychology.
www.nature.com/articles/s41... "Republicans experience higher exposure to Democrats than vice versa: the average Republican’s coworkers are 50% Democratic versus 32% Republican for the average Democrat."
Yup. Cultural conflicts eat up the categories of "old" politics and spit them out as something completely different. @fraraffaelli.bsky.social and I have a paper about this 👇
The term “working class” in common usage today isn’t about income or type of work. It’s been superseded by a postmodern definition focused on aesthetics and culture war stances. A barista who puts pronouns on a nametag is an elite. So is every adjunct lecturer. I don’t think this is a good change.
🚨 Now out in @bjpols.bsky.social w @busbyj2.bsky.social @jordantama.bsky.social @ckafura.bsky.social: Do American foreign policy elites know what the public wants? Partnering with @global-affairs.bsky.social, we show that elites systematically misread the room 🧵 www.cambridge.org/core/journal...
One week left to apply!! 😮 Please share
a black keyboard is sitting on a white table and says you on the bottom
ALT: a black keyboard is sitting on a white table and says you on the bottom
media.tenor.com
We're hosting the 2nd Workshop for Elections, Public Opinion and Parties (EPOP) scholars based in the North of the UK. 🏛️University of York, 8-9 June 2026. 🚨 Submission deadline extended to 1/5- Please share! docs.google.com/document/d/1...
The SCORE investigation of repeatability and credibility is a lot. There are a few ways to get your head around it. 1: The Nature collection includes 3 papers from SCORE, an amazing paper from @i4replication.bsky.social and several commentaries about the work. www.nature.com/collections/... 1/
Reliable research in the social and behavioural and sciences
Sweeping new investigations probe the replication, robustness and reproducibility of results across the behavioural and social sciences.
nature.com
My personal rule for IVs is that, if there's really only one reason why Z and Y are correlated, then you should be able to tell me Z and Y, and I'd be able to figure out what X is without you telling me. (1/n)
After nearly a decade measuring American public support for political violence, @nathankalmoe.bsky.social and I have published a somewhat comprehensive guide to measuring these attitudes. This includes historical comparisons and responses to common critiques. doi.org/10.1093/poq/...
How to Measure Public Support for Political Violence
Abstract. With low but rising levels of violent political threats and violent acts by civilians in the United States, researchers increasingly want to meas
doi.org
New w/@scottclifford.bsky.social. Lots of work uses agree-disagree scales, and a lit review shows these are 1) frequently just measured in one direction (agree = higher trait) and 2) correlated with each other. This has potentially big issues for conclusions. link.springer.com/article/10.1...
Acquiescence Bias and Criterion Validity: Problems and Potential Solutions for Agree-Disagree Scales - Political Behavior
Political Behavior - Scholars frequently measure dispositions like populism, conspiracism, racism, and sexism by asking survey respondents whether they agree or disagree with statements...
link.springer.com
This is a belated post about our paper in @poqjournal.bsky.social. We analyzed 100 survey experiments fielded by TESS (tessexperiments.org), using only information from the proposals to identify intended hypotheses. Here are some of the things we learned:
An Audit of Social Science Survey Experiments
Abstract. Survey experiments have become a popular methodology for causal inference across the social sciences. We study the efficacy of survey experiment
doi.org
One of the most lopsided results you'll ever see in a poll, from our weekend Washington Post poll www.washingtonpost.com/politics/int...
In all seriousness, what is the probability that the US invades Greenland by the end of 2028? At this point, maybe 50/50? It would be extremely easy for the US to pull off, and there is zero chance that Denmark and its European allies would respond militarily.
Well, make no mistake, we're fully back to 19th century imperialism. Fake news meets might-makes-right. I have a strong feeling that the worst is still yet to come too. This is so depressing.
EHBEA has a shiny new website and it looks lovely 😃 Many thanks to @amrotella.bsky.social for leading EHBEA through this change, with assistance from @pablovarase.bsky.social and @jeannebovet.bsky.social 🙏
✨NEW WEBSITE✨ We are finishing the year with a brand new website, so please stop by, have a look, and enjoy the new looks of EHBEA 💫 👇 👇 👇 www.ehbea.org
Over the moon 😍. My paper "Renewing Democracy: How Exposure to Electoral Turnovers Reinforces Citizens’ Democratic Support" is accepted in World Politics. LINK: osf.io/preprints/os.... First paper fully conceived since my second child was born 4 years ago. For those who know, big milestone. 🧵 1/
1/ Does growing up poor always lead to political apathy? Very happy to share my first paper published (open access) in @electoralstudies.bsky.social, where I show that parents' influence mitigates the poverty gap in participation, while economic mobility does not. 🔗 shorturl.at/p5Bac
A thread about being wrong: 5 years ago, we wrote a paper about how how newly enfranchised 16-year-olds vote in Austria. But we were wrong. This year, @elisabethgraf.bsky.social, @schnizzl.bsky.social, Sylvia Kritzinger and I are setting the record straight: authors.elsevier.com/c/1juT5xRaZk...
🎙️In this episode, @omarhgallego.bsky.social discusses public opinion and perceptions of migration, the recent migration policies of UK parties, and the politics behind them. open.spotify.com/episode/4NwR...
UK Migration Policies 2025: Public Opinion, Politics, and Policy Alternatives
open.spotify.com
new paper by Sean Westwood: With current technology, it is impossible to tell whether survey respondents are real or bots. Among other things, makes it easy for bad actors to manipulate outcomes. No good news here for the future of online-based survey research
Our study on public immigration misperceptions is out! Prior research overstated their prevalence due to flawed measurement. Our new approach separates real misperceptions from uninformed guessing — showing they’re less common than widely assumed and ideologically motivated. doi.org/10.1017/psrm...
Beyond innumeracy: measuring public misperceptions about immigration | Political Science Research and Methods | Cambridge Core
Beyond innumeracy: measuring public misperceptions about immigration
doi.org
Ever wondered why some countries get recognition while others struggle to be seen? My book 𝘛𝘩𝘦 𝘔𝘢𝘬𝘪𝘯𝘨 𝘰𝘧 𝘐𝘯𝘵𝘦𝘳𝘯𝘢𝘵𝘪𝘰𝘯𝘢𝘭 𝘚𝘵𝘢𝘵𝘶𝘴 is finally out in the world! 📘 academic.oup.com/book/61560
The Making of International Status
Abstract. With great power rivalry on the rise again, many worry that struggles for status among states could lead to war. As a growing consensus indicates
academic.oup.com
This article provides a minute-by-minute analysis of how Trump (Granger) causally contributed to violence on J6 doi.org/10.1098/rsif... @anthonymkreis.bsky.social In light of sum of evidence I remain unconvinced that BBC got things (very) wrong @jagolinzer.bsky.social @profsanderlinden.bsky.social
doi.org
I think, as an American who studied the speech to assess whether it constituted unlawful incitement, the BBC edit was poor journalistic form, but it did not convey something substantively different than reality. My thing? The apology doesn’t convey to me that the BBC gets Trump isn’t a fair broker.
Just published in @bjpols.bsky.social: @sergipardos.bsky.social and I show that inter-regional moves in pursuit of employment security reduce individual worries about immigration—a mobility pattern that, in the aggregate, reinforces spatial polarization in anti-immigration sentiment. cup.org/3XiB6yD
Regional Labor Markets, Residential Mobility, and Anti-Immigration Sentiment | British Journal of Political Science | Cambridge Core
Regional Labor Markets, Residential Mobility, and Anti-Immigration Sentiment - Volume 55
cup.org
NEW - Regional Labor Markets, Residential Mobility, and Anti-Immigration Sentiment - https://cup.org/3XiB6yD - @denis-cohen.bsky.social & @sergipardos.bsky.social #OpenAccess
"While high-quality content is posted more and receives more total engagement across platforms...a given author attracts higher levels of engagement when they post lower-quality content" "pattern we find seems to be driven more by an underperformance of particularly popular high-quality outlets"
Divergent patterns of engagement with partisan and low-quality news across seven social media platforms | PNAS
In recent years, social media has become increasingly fragmented, as platforms evolve and new alternatives emerge. Yet most research studies a sing...
pnas.org
From April 2025 - Does the Accumulation of Assets Shape Voting Preferences? Evidence from a Longitudinal Study in Britain - cup.org/42JWcZl - Justin Robinson, @pavlosvas1.bsky.social & @sofiavasilopoulou.bsky.social #OpenAccess
Wish I was still living in Brooklyn, so I could have voted yesterday. Would have been the first time in my entire life that I was actually excited and hopeful about casting a vote. So proud of New York City right now.
🆕 Latest article out @electoralstudies.bsky.social! Left parties' higher salience on cultural issues associated w/ higher support from working-class voters. Social democrats much more sensitive to different strategies, should pursue more left/salient economics www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti...
Left parties’ strategies and working-class vote in contemporary Western Europe (2002–2020)
What should the left do strategically to retain workers' vote? This paper provides extensive empirical evidence on the relationship between left parti…
sciencedirect.com
A massive study on the effects of social class tested 35 hypotheses in 4 countries (N = 33,536) Only 50% of findings replicated Hypotheses based on differences between social class contexts in terms of constraints, uncertainty & status were supported: www.nature.com/articles/s41...