Dr. Hannah Bunting
@hannahbunting.bsky.social
Senior Lecturer in Quant British Politics, Uni of Exeter. Co-director of The Elections Centre. Sky News Elections Analyst. Loves all (most) things stats, voting behaviour, British elections & inclusive feminism. Occasionally functions as "Quants Santa".
#OpenAccess from 2025 - A Crisis of Political Trust? Global Trends in Institutional Trust from 1958 to 2019 - cup.org/4gCcLuT - @viktorv.bsky.social, @drjennings.bsky.social, Gerry Stoker, @hannahbunting.bsky.social, @danjdevine.bsky.social, @lawrencemckay.bsky.social & Andrew Klassen #epop2026
Andy Burnham’s first conference speech as PM was praised for its honesty and ambition, but experts question whether the funding and delivery add up. Featuring @hannahbunting.bsky.social from @uniofexeterhass.bsky.social discussing the promise of electoral reform.
Burnham delivered honesty and emotion – but what about the promises? Our experts assess his plans
The prime minister wants fixing the crisis in social care to be the defining mission of his premiership.
theconversation.com
More on electoral reform from @elizabethsim0n.bsky.social and @hannahbunting.bsky.social from @uniofexeterhass.bsky.social First-past-the-post gave Labour a landslide. It might also cost them the next election. That’s why electoral reform is back on the table. Is Westminster ready for change?
Electoral reform is back on the agenda – here’s why things could genuinely be different this time
For once, it could serve the interests of the governing party to change the voting rules.
theconversation.com
🚨TODAY🚨 🗳️The results of last week's local & devolved elections have driven days of uncertainty in British politics 🤓Join our panel of expert pollsters @robfordmancs.bsky.social, @hannahbunting.bsky.social, Michael Thrasher & @anandmenon.bsky.social to unpack it all 🔗 ukandeu.ac.uk/events/ukice...
UKICE Lunch Hour: Unpacking the local elections 2026 - UK in a changing Europe
To dissect the details of the results of the local elections, UK in a Changing Europe is bringing together some of its expert pollsters.
ukandeu.ac.uk
It's local election day across the country! Find out more about what happens at a count, written by Adam Gray and check out the rest of this year's local election series including previews on key regions. @hannahbunting.bsky.social @uniofexeterhass.bsky.social electionscentre.uk/what-happens...
What happens at a count on election night?
electionscentre.uk
Are we witnessing the end of two-party politics in Britain? @profjanegreen.bsky.social and @martamiori.bsky.social explore what this week’s elections could reveal about the future of UK politics using YouGov data for ITV News. Find out more ⬇️ https://bit.ly/42ioslS
Election day is here -- if you're looking for some reading materials before polls close, at The Elections Centre we have been sharing our insights over the last few weeks. I'll link to a few of them in this thread 👇
Dr @hannahbunting.bsky.social from @exeterspspa.bsky.social and the @exeter.ac.uk Elections Centre has advice for how to follow tomorrow's local elections 🗳️ theconversation.com/election-day...
Election day in the UK: what to look out for – and when we’ll know the results
Around 25,000 candidates are campaigning this year, with new election styles in Scotland and Wales
theconversation.com
🚨 OUT NOW 🚨 What to look out for at the local elections 📝 📊 @adampayne26.bsky.social, @siennarodgers.bsky.social, More in Common's @luketryl.bsky.social & Exeter Uni's @hannahbunting.bsky.social discuss the key results on 7 May Hosted by @alaintolhurst.bsky.social podfollow.com/politicshome...
It's election week and our very own @hannahbunting.bsky.social has released a local elections projection. With close contests across the country, results are likely to be affected by even slight changes in party support and voter turnout. Read more via the link! @uniofexeterhass.bsky.social
2026 Local elections projection: three methods of forecasting the outcome show different benchmarks for party performance
eur03.safelinks.protection.outlook.com
New tech or traditional expertise: who will get the local elections right? theweekinpolls.substack.com/p/new-tech-o... Includes a chess analogy comparing likes of @samfr.bsky.social, @moreincommonuk.bsky.social, @stevefisher.bsky.social & @hannahbunting.bsky.social to various chess world champions.
New tech or traditional expertise: who will get the local elections right?
Welcome to the 211th edition of The Week in Polls (TWIP), a polling newsletter that always welcomes new readers.
theweekinpolls.substack.com
Analysis by @hannahbunting.bsky.social from the @exeter.ac.uk Elections Centre is featured in the @the-independent.com today www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/poli...
Labour ‘set to lose three-quarters of council seats’ in next week’s elections
Nigel Farage’s Reform UK set to be the biggest winners, with the Greens also doing well
independent.co.uk
For the first time, I've released a local elections projection using The Elections Centre data. You can read the full analysis here and I'll add some snippets in this thread 👇 electionscentre.uk/2026-local-e...
2026 Local elections projection: three methods of forecasting the outcome show different benchmarks for party performance
electionscentre.uk
New analysis from @hannahbunting.bsky.social from the @exeter.ac.uk Elections Centre shows how this year's local elections will see many close contests – decided by just a few percentage points electionscentre.uk/2026-local-e...
2026 Local elections projection: three methods of forecasting the outcome show different benchmarks for party performance
electionscentre.uk
Great analysis from @hannahbunting.bsky.social on the Gorton and Denton by-election @uniofexeterhass.bsky.social
University of Exeter News@uniofexeternews.bsky.social · 8mo ago"This was one seat with its own context, so it’s difficult to apply nationally. But we could see a scenario in May where both Reform and the Greens combined overtake the Conservatives and Labour" - analysis by @hannahbunting.bsky.social of @exeterspspa.bsky.social theconversation.com/late-decider...
New piece from w/ @hannahbunting.bsky.social & @jess-smith.bsky.social on the Gorton & Denton byelection, and what it might tell us about British politics. We cover turnout, late-deciding voters, gender gaps & the continuing fragmentation of the party system 🧵 theconversation.com/late-decider...
Late deciders, higher turnout: what the Gorton and Denton byelection taught us about voters
High numbers of undecideds may partially explain the late swing to the Greens.
theconversation.com
Check out the post below by @philipjcowley.bsky.social, who’s written a great summary of ongoing work by me, @hannahbunting.bsky.social, @cerifowler.bsky.social, @jess-smith.bsky.social, and @annasanders.bsky.social on gender gaps in “don’t know” responses👇
Philip Cowley@philipjcowley.bsky.social · 8mo agoLatest piece for the @thehousemag.bsky.social on the Don't Knows - who are more likely to be women. www.politicshome.com/opinion/arti...
New analysis from the University of Exeter’s Elections Centre by @hannahbunting.bsky.social and Michael Thrasher shows dramatic shifts in local council by-elections, with more parties than ever contesting seats and far fewer votes required to win @uniofexeterhass.bsky.social
Record-breaking council by-election trends means candidates more likely to win with less voter support, study warns
The growing trend of record-breaking council by-election results will mean more close contests and more candidates winning with little voter support, a new report warns. Last year saw an increasing nu...
news.exeter.ac.uk
The Local Elections Handbook 2025 is now available on the Elections Centre website: electionscentre.uk/resources/ It details the definitive record of all the councillor elections that took place in May 2025. Plus, it marks the 40th edition of local elections handbooks! @hannahbunting.bsky.social
Resources
electionscentre.uk
🧵 Thread on new research on gender gaps in “don’t know” responses Some of you will know that my stellar coauthors @hannahbunting.bsky.social @cerifowler.bsky.social @jess-smith.bsky.social @annasanders.bsky.social & I have been working on a large-scale project on “don’t know” responses in surveys.
"A big set of losses will be interpreted as a sign Starmer’s government is failing, even though the elections are likely to be low-turnout contests that actually represent the public’s continued diversity of opinions" - @hannahbunting.bsky.social on #Labour theconversation.com/rumours-abou...
Rumours about replacing Keir Starmer overlook several important polling details
Voters are undecided and no party is polling particularly well. All is not well for the UK prime minister – but talk of his imminent removal may be premature.
theconversation.com
🚨New article🚨 What do people want from political leaders in times of crisis, and are those preferences gendered? Interested? Then check out our new Electoral Studies paper @jess-smith.bsky.social @viktorv.bsky.social @danjdevine.bsky.social @hannahbunting.bsky.social @carolineleicht.bsky.social
Bluesky
e.bsky.social
Kicked off my first week at @lsegovernment.bsky.social with the fantastic @psaepop.bsky.social #EPOP2025 conference in Exeter. Grateful for the warm welcome, great academic exchange and stunning English nature 🌿. Colleagues in or passing through London, please reach out, I’d be glad to connect!
On Friday, I was fortunate enough to promote our book, Beyond Woke and Anti-Woke, at a plenary session of the #EPOP2025 conference. Thanks to all who came and co-panellists Helen Berry, @evemworth.bsky.social and @hannahbunting.bsky.social
#EPOP2025 is all wrapped up! Fantastic conference rounded off with dinner at Reed Hall @hannahbunting.bsky.social @uniofexeterhass.bsky.social @psaepop.bsky.social A huge thanks to all of our presenters, panellists, delegates and colleagues who supported to make it such a success.
On my way to #EPOP2025, my favourite recurring conference, with @prossertj.bsky.social. This year I have a welcome problem - practically every panel has cool people I know doing great work, and there aren’t six of me to attend them all!
We've managed to have lunch outside every day and shortly heading into final plenary sessions before the gala dinner this evening #EPOP20205 - Reed Hall is looking lovely already!
A fascinating plenary session at #EPOP2025 yesterday, thanks to Professor Helen Berry and Dr Eve Worth from @uniofexeterhass.bsky.social and Professor Thomas Prosser from Cardiff University, chaired by @hannahbunting.bsky.social @pspolisci.bsky.social @psaepop.bsky.social
🌅📙 64.3 #GovernmentTrust These authors (🧵⬇️) use experiments in 🇬🇧🇭🇷🇪🇸🇦🇷 & 🇫🇷 to determine what has the most influence on citizen's trust. They also looked at how different trust-related qualities interact and how people's own traits change the effects. 🔗 buff.ly/H5wjxBl
The causes of perceived government trustworthiness
DANIEL DEVINE, VIKTOR VALGARÐSSON, WILL JENNINGS, GERRY STOKER, HANNAH BUNTING
ow.ly