James Wiley

@jamescwiley.bsky.social

Statistician | Independent researcher | interests include evolutionary biology, suicide, psychology, and philosophy of science. Opinions expressed are my own. ORCiD: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5049-573X

ICYMI: Carla Ibled, 'The ‘Optimistic Cruelty’ of Hayek’s Market Order: Neoliberalism, Pain and Social Selection' - analyses how Friedrich Hayek’s market order operates through a series of disciplinary and biopolitical technologies. (Open Access) journals.sagepub.com/doi/full/10....

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New Publication Alert! 🚨 Why do suicide rates rise in the spring and decline in the fall? I argue that those at risk of suicide also face higher risk of dying from other causes, so fall/winter mortality from flu and heart attacks generate lower suicide rates. rdcu.be/fabXs

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No one has actually done any effective anaylsis to-date to see if the suicide rate has increased with the inception of AI. Before AI, people died by suicide. Now that AI is extremely prevelant, it is easy to blame it for problems that have always existed in our society.

Rose Broderick@rosebroderick.bsky.social · 8mo ago

The announcement is deceiving. OpenAI is funding grants w/ budgets "between $5,000 and $100,000." That's like throwing a penny at a tornado. OpenAI is facing lawsuits alleging that ChatGPT drove ppl to delusions and suicide — and this is their answer? You can't do research with such a paltry sum.

The COVID natural experiment suggests something very different. Suicide rates increase with declining death rates coming out of the flu season. When death rates are disrupted, suicide rates are also disrupted: osf.io/preprints/ps...

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University of Michigan News@umichnews.bsky.social · 10mo ago

Beyond sneezing & itchy eyes, high pollen seasons are now linked to significant rise in suicide risk. #UMich researchers found 7.4% increase in deaths, suggesting the physical discomfort of allergies may trigger deeper more dangerous despair, an overlooked factor in suicide prevention.myumi.ch/e3peA

The NYT article is well balanced. Even researchers who examine the sensitive issue of direct causation in suicide would find too little here to justify placing blame on any single factor. It’s an interesting case, but I don’t expect the lawsuit to be successful.

Kashmir Hill@kashhill.bsky.social · 11mo ago

Adam Raine, 16, died from suicide in April after months on ChatGPT discussing plans to end his life. His parents have filed the first known case against OpenAI for wrongful death. Overwhelming at times to work on this story, but here it is. My latest on AI chatbots: www.nytimes.com/2025/08/26/t...

The problem may be worse than it looks. Higher mortality rates suppress suicide rates—likely because deaths from other causes preclude later suicides. Rural areas have higher mortality. So how much higher are suicide rates there, after adjusting for this? osf.io/preprints/ps...

The Daily Yonder@dailyyonder.bsky.social · last yr.

According to researchers, suicides are a “persistent public health crisis,” compounded in rural areas by a number of socio-economic and healthcare access issues. Effective solutions will have to be tailored to specific communities.

This feels a bit like when your child does something amazing and you feel like you want to take the credit but can't really. My new book Alchemy: An Illustrated History has arrived, and it looks *gorgeous*.

It’s kinda wild how psychologists will just keep developing “paradigms” targeting estimands that are less and less plausibly empirically identified, because somehow that’s the epitome of rigorous theorizing (tm)

Matti Vuorre@matti.vuorre.com · last yr.

@shuhbillskee.bsky.social, Niklas Johannes & I finally submitted our critique of a "new paradigm" in social media effects research for peer-review at Meta-Psychology. If you're interested in reviewing, please submit a review to open.peer.reviewer@gmail.com or e.g. prereview.org, or reply here.

Title: 
"Three objections to a novel paradigm in social media effects research"

Abstract:
The study of social media effects on psychological well-being has reached an impasse: Popular commentators confidently assert that social media are bad for users but research results are mixed and have had little practical impact. In response, one research group has proposed a path forward for the field that moves beyond studying population averages
to find effects that are specific to individuals. We outline three objections to that research agenda. On a methodological level, the key empirical results of this programme—proportions of the population of individuals with negative, null, and positive social media effects—are not appropriately estimated and reported. On a theoretical level, these results do little to advance our understanding of social media and its psychological implications. On a paradigmatic level, this “personalized media effects paradigm” (Valkenburg et al., 2021a, p.74) cannot inform inferences about individuals and therefore does not deliver what it claims. We express concern that this research approach may be contributing to confusing messaging to both societal stakeholders and scientists investigating how social media and well-being might be related. We sincerely hope that describing these objections prompts the field to work together in adopting better practices to develop a better understanding of well-being in the digital age.

On January 14, 2025, the CDC released an easy to use dashboard for mapping injury, overdose and violent death (homicide, suicide), in the USA. You can sort by state, county, census tract. GREAT RESOURCE for local grants! Hope new admin doesn't shut it down. Please share. #SuicidePrevention #SWTech

Mapping Injury, Overdose, and Violence Dashboard

Explore local, state, and national data on deaths from drug overdose, suicide, and homicide.

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