Joe Boomgard-Zagrodnik

@joeboomzag.bsky.social

Pacific Northwest weather/climate forecasts. Website: theconvergencezone.com

A major new wildfire outbreak is now underway across interior Pacific Northwest, with dozens (or more) new wildfires already popping up in eastern Oregon & Washington following tens of thousands of lightning strikes in region experiencing moderate to extreme drought. #ORwx #WAwx

Current Watch Duty snapshot across PacNW, showing literally dozens of new fires in eastern Washington and Oregon.

If you’re wondering how the World Cup is going in Seattle, Airbnb just emailed us offering cash bonuses in exchange for securing bookings during matches. The exorbitant dynamic pricing / politics has likely backfired and I suspect Seattle will have the same or less tourists than a typical summer.

As the first reanalysis data become available, I think I can say with a fairly high degree of confidence that the March 2026 heatwave will go down as the most anomalously extreme heat event ever observed at any time of year in the southwestern U.S.

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Is climate change making cold extremes more frequent/severe? No This plot shows the difference in temperature of the 0.2% coldest hourly temps (from ERA5) from two periods: 2000-2019 and 1980-1999. Red colors indicate that the later period had warmer extreme cold temperatures.

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Earlier today, I was asked to comment on the current state of American disaster preparedness. That was already a fraught question, even prior to present chaos, but then I saw today's headlines. 🫠 "Top Disaster Response Official Claims He Teleported to a Waffle House"

Screenshot of a Rolling Stone headline that reads "Top Disaster Response Official Claims He Teleported to a Waffle House: FEMA's Gregg Phillips says he has experienced multiple "scary" episodes of sudden teleportation."

I've interviewed more than a dozen hydrologists and climatologists across the West the past 10 days. A sense of panic is starting to set in. Wildfires and water shortages will start mounting this summer. Adverse impacts are expected from not only this heat wave, but the historically warm winter.

The upcoming SW USA heat dome is predicted to be so anomalous that the 500 hPa heights over the entire region will exceed every historical daily max (1990-2025) from now until JUNE. This may be a short lived event, but the consequences for snowpack, water supply, and drought will be felt all year.

Map of western and central North America showing the earliest calendar date (Mar 17 to Jun 16) when historical 500 hPa heights met or exceeded the current 10-day forecast peak at each grid point. Gray areas indicate locations where that threshold was already met by today. Earliest dates (purple/blue, late March to mid-April) cluster in parts of the Southwest and southern Plains, while later dates (orange/yellow, May to mid-June) appear across much of California, Nevada, Utah, and nearby interior regions.”

By how much and for how long will the upcoming weather pattern--an astonishing anticyclone--be breaking March records in the west? A lot, and a long time. Here's GFS forecast 500hPa height compared to the March record. Breaking monthly records by >50m, and 2 to 5+ days in monthly record territory.

500-hPa height from the 00 UTC 14 March 2026 GFS forecast. Top left is the ERA5 max for March; top right is the maximum predicted in the model over the run out to 360 hrs; bottom left is the difference between the two, and bottom right is the number of 6-hr forecast times that would be above the ERA5 monthly max. It shows broad areas where the 500-hPa height will be more than 50 m higher than previously observed in March, and the entire southwest will spend at least two full days in monthly record territory

That storm made a nice dent in the WA state snowfall deficit. However, it wasn’t enough to get up to the 10th percentile line. Snowpack remains low, but at least we’re well clear of historic lows. A warm atmospheric river next week will be a net negative for snowpack.

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US 2 Stevens Pass is now closed between milepost 55 and 85 because our plows are not able to clear the road due to illegally parked vehicles at the summit. If you have selfishly chosen to block our crews and first responders, come move your car off the highway.

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All signs continue to point to an exceptional, long-duration, and record-breaking to (in some cases) record-shattering March heatwave initially centered across U.S. Southwest but expanding to much broader region next week. This is effectively a full-on summer heatwave in March.

Map of projected temperature anomalies next Thursday across the western U.S. from the ECMWF ensemble. The entire map is bright red and pink, indicative of extreme to record-breaking March warmth. Some location will be 25-30F degrees above average, with a few locations warming over 35F (!) above average.

The latest run of the European ensemble model has 500 mb heights a week from now around 5960 m over southern AZ. To give some perspective on how insane that is, that would be the orange dot on the SPC graph of Tucson historical 500 mb heights (red line is all-time highest)

500 mb height forecast from the European ensemble model for midday next ThursdayClimatological record of 500 mb heights at Tuscon from SPC, with an orange dot showing the forecast from the model.