Les chances de pluie à moyenne échéance sur les modèles cet été 2026...
Jonathan Wille
@jonathanwille.bsky.social
❄️ Polar meteorologist and climatologist. Studying #polar #meteorology #climatology with focus on atmospheric rivers, mass balance impacts, and high-res climate modeling. Post-doc researcher at Université de Bourgogne Franche Comté.
🌡Aujourd'hui est déjà le 16ème jour >= 35 °C de l'été 2026 à #Paris, un chiffre hallucinant et sans précédent. Pour mettre ce chiffre en perspective, 16 jours >= 35 °C, c'est plus que le cumul de TOUS LES ÉTÉS des années 1960, 1970, 1980, 1990, soit en 40 ans seulement 15 occurrences dont 2 en 1976
Being a meteorologist in France this summer has been a cruel joke. Staring at the forecast models, they always offer hope that the heatwave will end. But they always slide back to a cutoff low off the coast of Portugal leading to a "heat pump" like we are currently dealing with.
“.. Members of the group Patriot Front ride the metro on the 250th anniversary of U.S. independence in Washington, D.C.” @reuters.com
France just went through the worst heatwave in its history. Preliminary 1,300 excess deaths across Europe and just general misery for over a week. Now it looks likely to repeat in one week. The climate is truly broken here.
Gaétan Heymes@gaetanheymes.bsky.social · last mo.Signal très chaud pour la semaine du 6 au 12 juillet (carte de gauche). Même ordre de grandeur que pour la prévision il y a deux semaines (à droite) pour la semaine qui s'achève. Elle s'est avérée être la plus chaude jamais observée sur le pays, avec une anomalie de +9°C en moyenne sur le pays.
Enjoy the coming relatively cool week in Western Europe while it lasts! Forecast for 8 July 🥵.
France recorded a high of 44.6°C today. That’s so far beyond anything seen in the historical record, a 4.2 sigma deviation from the norm that it gives a return period of 87 thousand years. It’s really difficult to convey just how utterly extreme this is.
7 all-time records (black) reached so far in #France upto 42C (108F) so far today!! Dozens of June records broken across #Europe #heatwave
Jeff Berardelli @weatherprof.bsky.social · last mo.Europe is melting! The size, intensity, and longevity of this #heatwave is enormous. Peak temperatures will reach 45°C / 100-115°F this week in #France. You are looking at temperature anomalies in the cloud layer over the next 2 weeks, which peak at +20°C… 1/
Animated forecast from @ecmwf.int showing 500 hPa geopotential anomalies for the next 15 days. Very stable Ω blocking over central Europe with "cold feet" west and east of it. For large parts of Europe this means a strong heat wave over the next two weeks.
[Thread] [1/7] Avec 40-43+°C sur plusieurs jours, nous ne sommes plus sur un simple évènement météorologique, mais un évènement qui aura des conséquences catastrophiques pour la vie animale et végétale. Je pèse mes mots : ce qu'il va se passer en France est sans précédent.
Just more evidence that "warm" weather today means record breaking heatwave and "cool" weather means the temperatures are near average.
Dr. Serge Zaka@sergezaka.bsky.social · 2mo agoLe graphique des anomalies de températures mesurées et prévues est parlant : les rares et faibles anomalies froides, souvent ressenties comme marquées alors qu’elles sont insignifiantes, sont littéralement encerclées par des anomalies chaudes bien plus fréquentes, durables et intenses. 1/2
In our new highlighted paper in Earth System Dynamics, we map out the global atmospheric river network along with its main hubs, highways and basins! What emerges is a surprisingly structured system that we think could open up new perspectives on atmospheric connectivity💨🌧️ doi.org/10.5194/esd-...
I'm starting to get real nervous about a potential catastrophic heatwave in France next week. The ECMWF and GFS have been trending towards a record breaking heat scenario peaking during the Fete de la Musique. Still early, but the current forecast is 37-44C in the Paris area from June 18-24.
NY times covered our cut today (gift article) www.nytimes.com/2026/06/12/s...
She Used A.I. to Improve Forecasts for Extreme Weather
nytimes.com
This is not “very strange” but a very shouty WTF! 🧵 Temps should below freezing -mean air temp Esperanza for June about -11°C, not +15°C 😱 Conditions should be frigid!!!! 🥶 It’s approaching midwinter ffs! Days are very short this far north in the Antarctic Peninsula ( ~5 hrs) 1/
Record winter temperatures in Antarctic raise fears over speed of climate breakdown
Temperatures above 15C ‘very strange’ say scientists, as snow melts and rain falls on glaciers in usually frozen region
theguardian.com
Hard to believe I’m even writing this. Meteorological summer hasn’t even begun, yet Paris, France has already logged more days above 32°C than its annual average.
This is one of the most insane things I’ve seen from this regime. Please read this excellent summary and comment in the federal registry. 🧪🌊
elizabethginexi.bsky.social@elizabethginexi.bsky.social · 2mo agoSummary of Key Changes in OMB’s Proposed Federal Financial Assistance Rule. Russell Vought is going destroy American Science. elizabethginexi.substack.com/p/summary-of...
I do wonder if the changes we are making to our climate magically cooled the planet instead of warming it, would people pay more attention?
Melaine Le Roy@subfossilguy.bsky.social · 2mo agoWhen you convert the insane current warm anomalies of the earliest heatwave ever measured in France, to the same cold anomalies! 🥶 To all sceptics saying colds and warms 'balance each other out' in our human-disrupted climate! 🤡 'tell-tale', isn't it? 😲 Map: Josselin Thonnelier 🙏
Oxford, the longest running continuous weather station in UK history, with temperature observations stretching back to 1815, has preliminarily broken its maximum temperature record for May yesterday by OVER 3ºC with a temperature of 33.7ºC. Unprecedented in its 211-year history.
If you are like me and prefer to read the typeset version of papers, here you go: the final version is out fresh from the print 😊 www.nature.com/articles/s43...
Yet another example of record-shattering heat with both day- and nighttime records being broken by large margins. A distinct signal of the high warming rate.
MetJam@metjam.co.uk · 2mo agoLooking at the annual record, the minimum overnight at Kenley is the second most anomalous minimum ever recorded in its dataset, behind the 19th of July 2022. A genuinely historical event, with records being absolutely demolished.
Major pattern shift ahead across W and central Europe after a prolonged cool and unsettled spell. Upper geopotential heights are likely to reach record levels early next week. #weather
❄️In 2025, much of Europe saw fewer snow days than average, while end‑of‑season snow cover extent was 31% below average and snow mass 45% below, both the 3rd lowest in 42 years. 🔗 More info climate.copernicus.eu/esotc/2025/s... @ecmwf.int & @wmo-global.bsky.social #CopernicusClimate
www.linkedin.com/posts/dr-dia... Join us at the Polar Meteorology & Climate Session on Monday morning Room L2, poster on Tuesday Hall X5 @egu.eu @egu-cr.bsky.social @hs.egu.eu @agu.org @scar-antarctic.bsky.social @mrvandenbroeke.bsky.social @michelle-maclennan.bsky.social @jonathanwille.bsky.social
If true, this certainly would cement the Iranian war as an inflection point for the green energy transition. The jump in the solar panel exports is remarkable!
Justin Gerdes@justingerdes.bsky.social · 3mo ago"According to new analysis from @ember-energy.org ... solar exports equivalent to Spain’s entire installed capacity were dispatched from China over the month of March, surpassing the previous record set in August 2025 by 49%." reneweconomy.com.au/solar-surge-... via Sophie Vorrath 🔌💡