Josh Pasek

@joshpasek.com

Prof of Comm and Polisci @UMich studying how people get & use political information and social measurement. Competencies: data sci, DIY solar, election analytics, carpooling, #polcom, #polpsych, survey methods, AI literacy (views=own, overuses speech2text)

The critical question of US politics right now is whether the reticence of normally solid Republican voters to pick up the phone and talk to pollsters signals a general disengagement with politics (and thus low turnout in November), or is limited to polling.

1/ So as is my tradition, I was reading the Declaration of Independence today and I was thinking that instead of asking what it says about King George, it might be more interesting to think about what kind of country the founders were envisioning. A 🧵

"We hold these truths to be self-evident, that all men are created equal, that they are endowed by their Creator with certain unalienable Rights" "to secure these rights, Governments are instituted among Men, deriving their just powers from the consent of the governed"

There’s something quite fitting and ironic about celebrating the nation’s 250th birthday with a two day long power outage. An inspiring anniversary dashed by degraded infrastructure…

Power outage map showing an outage that started at 6 PM on July 3 is expected to be restored at 11:30 PM on July 5.

Just inadvertently discovered that a whole bunch of research on AI responses may be invalid. Apparently, even with memory off, ChatGPT is still giving contextual information, including the name of the user! It used my full name casually in conversation; which means that data is in the model.

I asked: Please write a summary from your perspective as an AI on what happened here and keep it short  - Chat response: From my perspective as the AI:

During this conversation, I referred to the user by name even though long-term memory was disabled. I did not retrieve that information from prior chats, but I did have access to hidden contextual metadata that identified the user, and I used it conversationally when I shouldn’t have. That revealed that my responses were conditioned on information beyond the visible transcript. The user pointed out that, regardless of whether the information came from memory, metadata, or retrieval, hidden conditioning changes the effective inputs to the model. For researchers, that creates a reproducibility problem because the conversation transcript alone is no longer a complete specification of what produced the response.

So sad to lose Barney Frank, I particularly remember him talking about his role in Freedom Summer, & the risks that he and others entailed to help bring America closer to a true democracy. The story reminds us both why we don’t want to go back and that pursuing what is right is not always welcomed.

Freedom Summer @ 50: The Politician | American Experience | PBS

"I felt morally empowered, but it was very scary," Congressman Frank Barney from Massachusetts.

pbs.org

There are a few places that an Astroturf campaign like this seem less likely to work than here in Ann Arbor. Many people in the know on the issue were tepid on public power prior to this campaign; but I can now name a number of new public power supporters, convinced by DTE making this effort.

Progressive News Service@prognews.bsky.social · 3mo ago

Utility industry using ‘astroturf’ groups to stop public ownership. "...the Ann Arbor Responsible Energy Coalition... appears to be a local, grassroots [group] opposing a public power campaign.... But state filings show its mailing address was One Energy Plaza..." www.theguardian.com/business/202...

Although it’s fair to say that there are a lot of particular challenges for election surveys, the widespread perception that political polls have not changed methods since 2004 is shocking. Far more election surveys are based on the USPS CDSF database than conducted via RDD (true for > a decade)

Matt Darling@besttrousers.bsky.social · 3mo ago

Economic surveys are imperfect in many ways, but the critiques of 1,000 person surveys conducted by random digit dialing don't apply to 20,000 in-person interviews using the USPS database.

Israel's hegemonic ideology is Kahanism: pursuing a Jewish non-democratic one state where Palestinians are subjugated, expelled or dead. Some say this is an inevitable continuation of Zionism, others that it is a corruption of Zionism. I disagree with both accounts, but don't mind either. 1/

An incredibly shameful action — all the more so given that every major Jewish movement has long condemned the death penalty, and that Israel itself used to assert that the only justification for putting someone to death was for crimes against humanity.

Joel S.@joelhs.bsky.social · 4mo ago

The Knesset passed a bill today mandating the death penalty for Palestinians convicted of terror - but not for Jews. There is a word for a legal system where different legal standards apply to different categories of people. www.haaretz.com/israel-news/...

The elite attack on universities has already substantially eroded academic freedom and free speech. People should be hired based on merit. We should avoid any procedure that punishes applicants or faculty based on political views. And no ideological quotas or monitoring of faculty.

Brendan Nyhan@brendannyhan.bsky.social · 5mo ago

"the decline in [academic freedom in] the United States has been more rapid and pronounced, particularly in the last year. It has deteriorated by 50% from 2015 to 2025 and is now evaluated as moderate autonomy by country experts" academic-freedom-index.net/research/Aca...