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Kyle Kondik

@kkondik.bsky.social

American elections analyst; Managing Editor, Sabato's Crystal Ball at UVA Center for Politics. Sign up free at http://centerforpolitics.org/crystalball

29 Posts6612 Follower190 Folgt
Kabir K.@kabirkhanna.bsky.social · 5mo ago

In North Carolina, D share of midterm primary vote predicts general election results (plot has contested Senate & House races since '14) ~57% of votes Tuesday were Democratic — even considering historical reversion to 50%, such a lopsided result indicative of strong tailwind for Ds in must-win race

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Kyle Kondik@kkondik.bsky.social · last yr.

Crystal Ball -- @jmilescoleman.bsky.social on the NH Senate race as well as how the VA Dem electorate might be getting more "efficient" as state House races loom this fall centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/...

Notes on the State of Politics: New Hampshire Senate and Change in Virginia - Sabato's Crystal Ball

The New Hampshire Senate race gets a little more competitive with Sen. Jeanne Shaheen's (D) retirement; in Virginia, Democrats' 2024 coalition was more efficient than it was in some past years.

centerforpolitics.org

Kyle Kondik@kkondik.bsky.social · last yr.

Crystal Ball -- Three Things That Usually Happen in Midterms: Smaller turnout, an older/whiter/more educated electorate, and the non-presidential party typically improving its share of the overall House vote centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/...

Three Things That Usually Happen in Midterms - Sabato's Crystal Ball

Midterm electorates are smaller, older, and less diverse -- and they often see the non-presidential party improve their share of the House vote.

centerforpolitics.org

Kyle Kondik@kkondik.bsky.social · last yr.

NEW Crystal Ball -- Trump's approval a month in Still net positive but has weakened a bit. He's also overperforming with some Democratic-leaning groups -- reasonable to wonder whether that will continue centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/...

Trump’s Approval: Still Positive, but Overperformance with Democratic-Leaning Groups May Be Hard to Maintain - Sabato's Crystal Ball

As his second term enters its second month, Donald Trump retains a positive approval rating in polling averages. However, his numbers in polling averages are weaker now than a few weeks ago, driven mo...

centerforpolitics.org

Kathleen Weldon@kathleenweldon.bsky.social · last yr.

I’m on my third presidential library archive visit, and still I cannot get over that anyone, everyone, can access these historical documents. It’s wonderful. Also, this was the first document in the first folder I opened.

Memo from Hates, polling results from Lou Harris on Vietnam, with all-caps statement: HE MADE ME SWEAR THERE WOULD BE NO RELEASE and handwritten note “off-record, protect Harris.”
David Karol@davidkarol.bsky.social · last yr.

The Separation of Powers system was NOT built for parties, but it sort of worked as long parties weren't THAT cohesive. It's been under pressure for years. Now for the first time a party's President can withhold renomination from legislators who don't vote as they're told and it doesn't work.

Fred Kaplan@fredmkaplan.bsky.social · last yr.

Unbelievable how many Republicans are rolling over for nominees that, in any other time, would have been laughed out of town, not even considered for a hearing, much less a vote.

Josh Huder@joshhuder.bsky.social · last yr.

No matter how much a member may like shuttering a specific agency or "pausing" to "review" it's work, it blatantly violates congressional authority and weakens their control of future presidents. It is the worst kind of abdication of power and precedent imaginable.

Kyle Kondik@kkondik.bsky.social · 2y ago

Raw votes in IA Sen District 35, 2022 midterm -- a little under 24k votes, R wins by 22 pts Turnout in last night's special -- roughly 9,300, D wins by roughly 3.5 pts obviously great result for Ds but also much lower turnout than even a midterm, common in these kinds of races

Jonathan Ladd@jonathanmladd.com · 2y ago

I don't disagree with this change. But people shouldn't react to retirements like it's 1976. The incumbency advantage is only about 1-2% on average in recent years. National conditions matter much more. If Dems can't win in MI in 2026 with a less well-known candidate, the party has bigger problems.

Kyle Kondik@kkondik.bsky.social · 2y ago

We haven't done Senate ratings yet, but Sen. Gary Peters (D-MI) retiring probably moves that race from starting in Leans D to starting in Toss-up.

Matt Glassman@mattglassman312.bsky.social · 2y ago

Trump return-to-work policy will be a nice case study in implementation of EOs and presidential influence in the bureaucracy. Even seemingly cut-and-dry WH dictates are tough to implement w/o skill, persistence, and buy-in. Will be interesting to see if/how WH accomplishes it.