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Semih Çakır

@mascakir.bsky.social

Political scientist at University of Ottawa. Previously at University of Montreal and University of Vienna - I study polarisation, partisanship and democratic citizenship. www.semihcakir.com

54 Posts1517 Follower1637 Folgt
Ruth Dassonneville@rdassonneville.bsky.social · 2mo ago

Had a *great* time talking with @mascakir.bsky.social about our @cpsjournal.bsky.social paper on the behaviour of young voters!

Semih Çakır@mascakir.bsky.social · 2mo ago

🎙️ New Reasonably Political Podcast episode! @rdassonneville.bsky.social explains why younger voters are more likely to support left-wing parties in some elections, but not others, and how political parties shape age divides at the ballot box. Tune in for more👇 www.buzzsprout.com/2608748/epis...

Christina Gahn@christinagahn.bsky.social · 2mo ago

Excited to share our new paper in @thejop.bsky.social with @krausewe.bsky.social! Parties polling just below an electoral threshold are far less likely to clear it: a self-fulfilling prophecy that diminishes when polls communicate uncertainty. 🗳️📊 www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/10.1086/...

Werner Krause@krausewe.bsky.social · 2mo ago

New paper out in the @thejop.bsky.social (w/ @christinagahn.bsky.social) Do opinion polls shape election results? Using both cross-national data and a survey experiment, the answer we find is yes - though it depends on how we communicate polling results. www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/10.1086/...

Image showing the abstract of the paper "Self-Fulfilling Prophecies at the Voting Booth" by Werner Krause and Christina Gahn, published in the Journal of Politics. The abstract describes a quasi-experimental study across 25 countries finding that parties polling just below electoral thresholds are approximately 45 percentage points less likely to clear them, and that this effect diminishes when voters are informed about polling uncertainty.
Dieter Stiers@dieterstiers.bsky.social · 2mo ago

🚨New publication (with Shane Singh) in @poqjournal.bsky.social! Proponents of compulsory voting often claim that obligatory turnout will increase citizens' political involvement, equalising levels of democratic attitudes and political engagement in the electorate. But does it? 👇

Does Compulsory Voting Improve Democratic Attitudes and Engagement? Quasi-Experimental Evidence from Belgium

Abstract. For over a century, scholars, policymakers, and advocates have argued that compulsory voting not only boosts turnout but also promotes prodemocra

academic.oup.com

Ruth Dassonneville@rdassonneville.bsky.social · 2mo ago

‼️ New paper with Ian McAllister (ANU) out at @respol.bsky.social. We use @ess-survey.bsky.social data to study over-time changes in the association between education and left-right self-placements.

Research & Politics@respol.bsky.social · 2mo ago

@rdassonneville.bsky.social & McAllister show that education divides voters less by changing opinions than by changing political labels, as immigration increasingly shapes how Europeans understand left and right. Read more here: journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/...

Omar Wasow@owasow.bsky.social · 3mo ago

“Writing is hard.” Thrilled to share that this simple idea led to a new paper in Political Analysis! Where most text methods focus on content, I test if expression is also effortful action. I find simple measures like character counts reveal attitudes and predict voting. cup.org/4cUmoXi 1/

Text as Behavior Text as Behavior published in Political Analysis by Omar Wasow Abstract Text analysis typically focuses on content—such as sentiment or topic—but expression is also a form of effortful action. Building on this insight, I propose using simple features of open-ended tasks to study text as behavior. This approach treats expression, such as writing, as cognitively, emotionally and temporally “costly” for subjects but inexpensive for researchers. I show basic statistics like the number of characters can approximate effort and significantly improve estimation of quantities of interest, including candidate choice, the probability of turning out to vote and psychological states about which a subject may not be fully aware. Further, these methods can convert nonresponse into informative data; validate survey instruments; serve as mechanism checks; be hard for a subject to “game”; work across different languages and analogize well to real-world situations. In sum, text as behavior can help address a range of issues related to quantifying attitudes and actions.
Semih Çakır@mascakir.bsky.social · 4mo ago

🎙️ Excited to share a new podcast project: Reasonably Political! The goal is to make political science more accessible and connect research to real-world debates. 1/2 🧵

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Semih Çakır@mascakir.bsky.social · 5mo ago

🚨New blog post 🚨 If fewer people vote, do elections still represent what policies citizens want? I summarize research using data from 29 European democracies on whether voters and non-voters actually differ in their policy preferences and when turnout matters for representation. 1/2

Does Low Voter Turnout Matter? Evidence from Europe |

Voters and non-voters in European democracies often hold similar views. But when gaps emerge, they are not trivial and their impact depends on turnout.

semihcakir.com

Florian Foos@florianfoos.bsky.social · 8mo ago

We have a new tenure-track job in @lsegovernment.bsky.social at AP level (empirical political science, open subfield): jobs.lse.ac.uk/Vacancies/W/... Please apply and share with colleagues who might be interested!

Assistant Professor in Political Science

Assistant Professor in Political Science, , <p style="text-align: center;"><em><span>LSE is committed to building a diverse, equitable and truly inclusive university</span></em></p> <p style="text-ali...

jobs.lse.ac.uk

Semih Çakır@mascakir.bsky.social · 11mo ago

Very happy to share that this paper from my PhD dissertation is now published in print. It tackles a question central to my research: How much can parties actually shape the opinions of their supporters? Results suggest their leeway might be more limited than often assumed!

European Journal of Political Research@ejprjournal.bsky.social · 11mo ago

🌅📙 64.3 Does elite polarization cause public polarization? 🪢 @mascakir.bsky.social finds when Labour moved left, most voter didn’t follow. Only a few loyal but ideologically distant supporters shifted. #Polarization #UKPolitics 🔗

Semih Çakır@mascakir.bsky.social · 11mo ago

The lowest point of my research career? Not impostor syndrome. Not rejection letters. Not even Reviewer 2. It’s Qualtrics hiking fees, my uni pulling the plug… and QuestionPro.

Ruth Dassonneville@rdassonneville.bsky.social · last yr.

Super happy to share this new paper with @zeynsom.bsky.social and Patrick Fournier, out now in JEPOP! We study how the accuracy of citizens' perceptions of parties' issue positions depends on the importance they attach to the issue. See Zeynep's 🧵 for an overview of our findings!

Zeynep Somer-Topcu@zeynsom.bsky.social · last yr.

New paper alert: @rdassonneville.bsky.social, Patrick Fournier, and I have a new paper published in JEPOP: "Personal issue importance effects on voters’ perceptual accuracy of party issue positions". A thread: doi.org/10.1080/1745...