Never forget they gave a Riksbank Nobel to the guy who said we could calculate the magnitude and consequences of global warming with such precision it would be possible to decide how much of it we wanted.

Two crucial differences between China shocks #1 and #2: - Export prices falling instead of rising - Imports flatlining instead of rising www.ft.com/content/4687...

In a world of fossil price shocks and Chinese cleantech dominance, carbon shock therapy emerges as the default stance of states unwilling, or unable, to support their industries through a green transformation. New with @danielagabor.bsky.social on green macrofinancial regimes in the Hormuz crisis.

Against Carbon Shock Therapy | Daniela Gabor & Benjamin Braun

The war in Iran has sent oil prices skyrocketing. Daniela Gabor and Benjamin Braun argue the ripple effects and states (non)responses to the crisis represent a

phenomenalworld.org

📣 Call for Papers 📣 The OBFA-TRANSFORM research group is hosting a workshop on 12-13 June at the Freie Universität Berlin! The title is "Monetary Architecture. Mapping the Web of Interlocking Balance Sheets in Times of Change". See the CfP here: tinyurl.com/5n7aab2r ▶️ Apply by 10 April

"How does hiking rates help with oil price shocks" It's not that central bankers don't have any answers to such questions. It's more they often seem embarrassed to give those answers

I have a new review paper out in @environmentalpol.bsky.social! ✨ What would it actually take for states to pursue green transformations? I identify 5 capacities — planning, disciplinary, strategic, legitimation and adaptive — and their respective policy elements, capabilities and institutions

At the OBFA-TRANSFORM group, we sometimes do videos on our publications - now it was my turn, with @olanmcevoy.bsky.social interviewing me on our paper on the Recovery and Resilience Facility and the limits to incremental fiscal integration in Europe! www.youtube.com/watch?v=qT7P...

The Recovery and Resilience Facility: Schrödinger's Off-Balance Sheet Fiscal Agency?

YouTube video by OBFA-TRANSFORM

youtube.com

Excellent summary of the large body of work @steffenmurau.bsky.social and colleagues have done on the Offshore (US) Dollar Syatem www.phenomenalworld.org/analysis/tru... @phenomenalworld.bsky.social Look here for the bigger body of work: steffenmurau.com/portfolio/in...

Trump's Dollar | Steffen Murau

Trump’s economic policy and the future of the world dollar

phenomenalworld.org

“Those who want to translate their nativist politics into monetary precepts have failed to reckon with the credit-based, offshore, nature of money today.” @steffenmurau.bsky.social on year one of Trump’s economic policy and the future of the world dollar www.phenomenalworld.org/analysis/tru...

Trump's Dollar | Steffen Murau

Calls to weaken the dollar have become a feature of Trump's second term. But in today's credit-based system, where the US currency is often created offshore, nativist politics cannot be translated int...

phenomenalworld.org

I'm don't think we should get too excited about this. Eurodollar structure is dollar assets funded by dollar liabilities. If Europe moves to dump dollar assets it's left with ... large dollar liabilities. Not a great position to be in, particularly if access to dollar swap lines is questionable.

Albert Pinto@70sbachchan.bsky.social · 7mo ago

"Guess who is the largest direct investor in the US?" -- @philippasigl.bsky.social

📝 Our report on the transformation of South Africa’s monetary architecture (1983-2024) co-authored with Mark Swilling for the National Planning Commission of South Africa has been launched last week! 📝 Find the full report here: www.nationalplanningcommission.org.za/assets/Docum...

We recently published a study on the transformation of the Eurozone architecture (🔗 papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers...., with Alex Goghie, Matteo Giordano & @rikereimer.bsky.social) and launched an accompanying interactive online tool (🔗 monetary-architecture.com). This is how it came to be 👇

📝 New publication 📝 We have now published our study on the Transformation of the Eurozone Architecture, co-authored with Alex Goghie, Matteo Giordano, and @rikereimer.bsky.social papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers....

📣 News from the OBFA-TRANSFORM project 📣 Our Emmy Noether research group is fast approaching its halfway point and we’ve recently received confirmation of funding from @dfg.de for the second project period from 2026 to 2029 🎊 That's why we are launching our new website at obfa-transform.eu

things are happening in the OBFA-TRANSFORM film studio today... 👀 @steffenmurau.bsky.social @olanmcevoy.bsky.social @ fanny without bluesky

+++ Neuer Artikel für die SWP +++ 🌍 Viele Staaten stehen heute vor großen geoökonomischen Herausforderungen, von resilienter Energieinfrastruktur bis zur Handelspolitik. Historisch wurden hierfür immer wieder bilanzexterne Fiskalagenturen geschaffen, für dringend benötigten finanziellen Spielraum.

Der US-Dollar verliert an Dominanz. Schlägt die Stunde des Euro? Unser Report zeigt: Eine stärkere Euro-Internationalisierung bringt nur kleine Nettoeffekte für's BIP. Globarer Euro ist nicht automatisch ein Vorteil. Zum Report von Nils Gerresheim, @maxkrahe.bsky.social, @jvtk.bsky.social ⬇️

Da ist der endlich: Der neue Leviathan-Sonderband "Politische Theorien öffentlicher Finanzen - Zur (De-)Politisierung von Geld, Eigentum und Steuern" ist ausgepackt! @nomosverlag.bsky.social www.nomos-shop.de/de/p/politis...

Was macht nachhaltige Staatsfinanzen wirklich aus? @steffenmurau.bsky.social und @moritzkapff.bsky.social wissen weiter 👇

Surplus | Das Wirtschaftsmagazin@surplusmagazin.de · 10mo ago

Nimmt der Staat zu viele Schulden auf? Ob das tragfähig ist, ist eine Frage des Finanzsystems. Das entscheidende Stichwort lautet »Fundierung«, schreiben @steffenmurau.bsky.social und Moritz Kapff.

Brad of course agrees Important point as German industrial production drops to 2005 levels. I can think of no better way for the German government to spend money than a few billion on EV demand subsidies Beats all the other spending outlays I’ve seen hands down - it’s Germanys key industry u know

It is a pretty dire indictment on the quality of German policy-making if we blast billions on stay-at-home subsidies and gastronomy tax cuts. And do nothing for our most important industry bringing in 90bn in tax receipts, other than killing the ICE phaseout cuz we want to stay in the 20th century

Sander Tordoir@sandertordoir.bsky.social · 10mo ago

German auto summit tomorrow. The sole focus on the EU combustion engine phase-out, which is 10 years away, is baffling because German cars have a demand problem today Berlin worries a new EV subsidy scheme would be fiscally too expensive. But demand-side support is a fiscal no-brainer here. 1/

"China is the only large country driving the energy transition at anything close to the necessary speed and scale." It's also the only one whose energy transition is not hamstrung by reliance on the motive force of renewables profitability. Coincidence? I think not.

Chartbook 409 Beyond the "Marshall Plan": China's solar boom as world-changing industrial policy.

In the first six months of 2025 China installed more than 250GW of solar power capacity.

adamtooze.substack.com

Energy sector advantage by continent 2/

Not sure that some in Germany understood that more issuance of their own would imply more market discipline on France. Not sure some in France fully realised that Germany's big fiscal experiment also has sharp downsides for them.

Sander Tordoir@sandertordoir.bsky.social · 12mo ago

Scenario on. Part of France’s fiscal woes: more German bund supply potentially means less OAT demand: investors often bought the latter to get core eurozone exposure — bunds were scarce. Not as scarce anymore going forward as Germany issues more debt. Profligate Germany disciplines France.

beantrage vier monate sabbatical um meinem lesestapel hinterherzukommen

CBI is legitimised by 2 arguments. Progressives should defend 1 and keep fighting against 2. 1. Classic separations of powers. The king should not held the purse directly 2. The inflation nutter credibility argument (k&p77,b&g82,rogoff85) whereby the cb plays a discipline role against labor demands

JW Mason@jwmason.bsky.social · 12mo ago

A lot of us have been struggling to reconcile our criticisms of Fed independence with the fact that defense of the Fed is, at this moment, critical to the defense of liberal government. Tooze’s latest grasps this nettle more firmly than anything else I’ve seen. adamtooze.substack.com/p/chartbook-...

NEW: The first evidence of a solar take-off in Africa☀️✈️ x33 rise in Algeria solar panel imports in the 12 mths to June 2025, compared to previous 12 mths. x8 in Zambia x7 in Botswana x6 in Sudan x3 in each of Liberia, DRC, Benin, Angola, Ethiopia 🧵

None of this is to say the US tariffs won’t hurt European exports — they will. Europe had legit cause to retaliate now. But I doubt a militarily more independent future Europe has the will, impetus and import-competition concern to reopen a broad trade war on the US. 6/

The whole China green manufacturing thing is understood - I think? - as a key factor in the energy complex, geopolitics, and climate. People have heard of the Pakistan story; where a quarter of electricity is now solar compared to >10% in 2023. But, like: things keep happening!