Rodrigo Castro Cornejo
@rcastrocornejo.bsky.social
Political Science Professor @UMassLowell @UML_CPO | Co-PI @ENEM_Mexico | Partisanship, polarization, public opinion & surveys (+🇲🇽 politics)
Partisanship is a useful decision-making heuristic. It's also a source for camaraderie among people of color. With @efrenpolipsy.bsky.social and team, we find PoC's sense of interdependence with each other shifts over time to fit their partisanship. journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/...
** New UMass-Lowell Center for Public Opinion National Poll ** Presidential Approval = 39% GOP = 77%, Indep = 29%, Dems=5% White = 45%, Black = 16%, Hispanic = 36% 18-29 = 31%, 30-44 = 35%, 45-64 = 44%, 65+ = 41% More info: www.uml.edu/Research/pub...
UMass Lowell Center for Public Opinion@umlcpo.bsky.social · 4mo ago** New UMass-Lowell / Center for Public Opinion National Poll ** Presidential Approval = 39% More info: t.co/GJEgT5jKe1
I thought this segment from Enten was bad use of polling www.gelliottmorris.com/p/2026-03-22...
CNN's "100% MAGA Trump approval" segment omits key nuance for virality
Plus, voters overwhelmingly oppose putting boots on the ground in Iran. Your weekly political data roundup for March 22, 2026.
gelliottmorris.com
NEW ISSUE - Latin American Politics and Society - Volume 68 - Issue 1 - https://cup.org/4rU8sSm w/ papers by @rcastrocornejo.bsky.social, @merikeblofield.bsky.social, @ecalvo68.bsky.social, @juangelvezf.bsky.social, @juancangulo.bsky.social & more
Happy to share my new paper published in @LAPSjournal. Do voters take into account the deaths of family members and close friends when evaluating the government’s response to the COVID-19 pandemic—particularly when that response is problematic or even negligent? bit.ly/3MBjEDW
Cambridge University Press Political Science & IR@cambup-polsci.cambridge.org · 6mo ago#OpenAccess from Latin American Politics and Society - “You have to hug, nothing is going to happen”: Partisan Retrospection, the COVID-19 Pandemic, and the Politics of Death in Mexico - https://cup.org/3ZHSdvb - @rcastrocornejo.bsky.social #FirstView #COVID19
#OpenAccess from Latin American Politics and Society - “You have to hug, nothing is going to happen”: Partisan Retrospection, the COVID-19 Pandemic, and the Politics of Death in Mexico - https://cup.org/3ZHSdvb - @rcastrocornejo.bsky.social #FirstView #COVID19
far-right parties benefit electorally when the current government is on the left because there is an ideological shift to the right among the electorate when left-wing parties govern www.cambridge.org/core/journal...
Left-Wing Governments and Far-Right Success | British Journal of Political Science | Cambridge Core
Left-Wing Governments and Far-Right Success - Volume 56
cambridge.org
‼️‼️ Check out our new first online article! 👇 Do Voters Reject Gay Candidates? We find no punishment among the general electorate: voters in Argentina reward gay candidates, while Chilean and Mexican citizens are indifferent. @rcastrocornejo.bsky.social journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/...
Do Voters Reject Gay Candidates? Partisanship, the Far-Right, and the Electoral Effect of Candidate Sexual Orientation in Latin America - Lautaro Cella, Rodrigo Castro Cornejo, 2026
In recent years, lesbian, gay, bisexual and transgender (LGBT) rights and candidacies have expanded across Latin America. Some argue that such progress may prov...
journals.sagepub.com
New publication with Lautaro Cella Do voters reject gay candidates in LA? We find that most voters in Chile, Arg, and Mex do not penalize them, but voters aligned with far-right parties (e.g. Republican Party in Chile) do reject them at the ballot box. journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/...
New publication with @turnbulldugarte.com in @psrm.bsky.social! 🧵 We study whether citizens’ liberal values are selective: do people support policies based on who promotes them? Short answer: Yes, and it's driven by ethnic out-group disidentification. (1/11) 👇 doi.org/10.1017/psrm...
Motivated reasoning is a well-understood phenomenon - or is it? In a new paper just published at @collabrapsychology.bsky.social we discuss three known unknowns. doi.org/10.1525/coll... Here is a 🧵
Known Unknowns in Motivated Reasoning: A Closer Look at Three Open Questions
Motivated reasoning denotes the phenomenon that individuals are more likely to arrive at conclusions that they want to arrive at. Properly understanding this phenomenon requires at least three things:...
doi.org
From our October National Poll @umlcpo.bsky.social Democrats=95%, Independents=68%, Republicans=29% 18-29=70%, 30-44=68%, 45-64=61%, 65+=58% More data: uml.edu/Research/public-opinion/polls/default.aspx
What happened in Tuesday's elections? Here's our anatomy of a blue wave: www.economist.com/graphic-deta...
From our Aug/Sept NYC poll @umlcpo.bsky.social More info: uml.edu/research/public-opinion/polls/2025/nyc-mayoral.aspx
Dem gains in this week's elections erased the inroads Trump made with non-white, young, and low-income voters in 2024. In fact, the R-to-D shift from 24 to 25 is double Trump's gains from 20-24. Claims of a GOP political realignment have been highly exaggerated www.gelliottmorris.com/p/trumps-win...
Trump's winning 2024 coalition has evaporated
Claims of a conservative realignment of non-whites, the working class, and young voters have been highly exaggerated
gelliottmorris.com
"claims of a fundamental realignment of American politics have been highly exaggerated" this happens ***every single time*** someone proclaims a realignment
G Elliott Morris@gelliottmorris.com · 9mo agoDem gains in this week's elections erased the inroads Trump made with non-white, young, and low-income voters in 2024. In fact, the R-to-D shift from 24 to 25 is double Trump's gains from 20-24. Claims of a GOP political realignment have been highly exaggerated www.gelliottmorris.com/p/trumps-win...
Trump at a -16 net approval rating among all adults now, per our average at @fiftyplusone.news, and flirting with dropping below 40% approval. fiftyplusone.news/polls/approv...
Spanberger now at 15 and change. please feel free to read too much into it.
John Cluverius@johncluverius.bsky.social · 9mo agohow to handicap VA results: Sears + >0: hail king trump Spanberger +1-5: dems in serious trouble Spanberger +5-10: normal shift, anything could happen Spanberger +10-15: don't read too much into it Spanberger +15-20: read too much into it Spanberger +20: hail queen aoc
From our Aug/Sept NYC poll @umlcpo.bsky.social More info: uml.edu/research/public-opinion/polls/2025/nyc-mayoral.aspx
I've spent my life advocating for a politics challenging oligarchy. It's been an unpleasant and difficult line of work, to say the least. So when I see the longtime opponents of this kind of politics suddenly appropriating it as their new "centrism," I'm happy. A short 🧵...
Welcome To The New Uprising
Zohran Mamdani’s victory could be a turning point for Democrats — if the party finally learns from its past leaders’ betrayals.
levernews.com
basically every 2024 truism is dead. Trump did not build a lasting multiracial coalition or turn young men into committed Republicans. You don’t need to cave on trans rights to win. The pundits have nothing left to tell you.
The question for the midterms is: where will Trump's approval rating be? He started the second term at +12, 8 points ahead of where he was in '17. now that gap has shrunk to about 2-3 points. where will the economy be? Trump had a *roaring* economy in 2018.
From our UMass Lowell Center for Public Opinion NYC poll — broad support for Mamdani’s policies.
UMass Lowell Center for Public Opinion@umlcpo.bsky.social · 9mo agoFrom our Aug/Sept NYC UMass-Lowell Center for Public Opinion Poll More info: uml.edu/research/public-opinion/polls/2025/nyc-mayoral.aspx
From our Aug/Sept NYC UMass-Lowell Center for Public Opinion Poll More info: uml.edu/research/public-opinion/polls/2025/nyc-mayoral.aspx
Today is election day. **More data from the new UMass-Lowell Center for Public Opinion National Poll** 52%=much/somewhat harder to pay for basic necessities Less than 50K = 60%, 50K-100K = 52%, 100K+= 42% White = 48%, Black=70%, Hispanic=54%
depending on model, this suggests a shift between D+11 and D+30 seats, based solely on Abramowitz's model.
UMass Lowell Center for Public Opinion@umlcpo.bsky.social · 9mo ago** New UMass-Lowell / Center for Public Opinion National Poll ** If the 2026 elections for U.S. House of Representatives were held today...
