Simon Galle
@simongalle.bsky.social
🇧🇪 Economist interested in trade & development, technology, and labor market inequality. PhD UC Berkeley. Associate Prof at BI, Oslo. https://www.ocf.berkeley.edu/~sgalle/
No, No, no. Look, are there lessons to learn from this debacle? Sure. Drone warfare, mag depth, etc. But the solution here is not 'yet more tactical excellence or tech.' It is 'the president asked the impossible of the military and they should have said so.' www.theatlantic.com/internationa...
The War Is Lost. Now Fix What It Broke.
America has to rethink how it moves resources, fights wars, and deters adversaries.
theatlantic.com
Trump keeps his edge as a reverse Midas. Thank you, Mr. President! www.theguardian.com/football/202...
Ragged USA crash out of World Cup with last-16 defeat to Belgium
The United States are out of the World Cup after Belgium eliminated the co-hosts in the last 16 at Seattle Stadium on Monday night
theguardian.com
Podcast | Is de Nobelprijs Economie een bekroning van wetenschap of ideologie? Luister naar de analyse van prof. @simongalle.bsky.social (BI) in ons nieuwste audio-essay. open.spotify.com/episode/4cNt...
De Nobelprijs Economie: afschaffen of opwaarderen? – prof. Simon Galle
Karakter. Tijdschrift van Wetenschap · Episode
open.spotify.com
New research in Science from @dominic-rohner.bsky.social and others: USAID cuts caused violent conflict to spike immediately in areas that received the most USAID support and last for months. www.science.org/doi/10.1126/...
Aiding peace or conflict? The impact of USAID cuts on violence
Less than a week after its inauguration, the second Trump administration issued a blanket stop-work order for the United States Agency for International Development (USAID), the largest national human...
science.org
This is assuming prints of 0.4% We just did a 0.6%.
Mike Zaccardi, CFA, CMT@mikezaccardi.bsky.social · 3mo agoBofA Hartnett: US CPI on course for >5% by mid-terms
The local elections in one chart. Labour has been squeezed between the Greens in young wards and Reform in older working-class wards www.economist.com/britain/2026...
Er tikt een bom onder de begroting. Ze ontploft pas na de verkiezingen www.demorgen.be/nieuws/er-ti...
Er tikt een bom onder de begroting. Ze ontploft pas na de verkiezingen
Met wat schoten van links en rechts vat de regering-De Wever de begrotingsonderhandelingen langzamerhand aan. Het wordt lastig, maar nog één keer op de tanden bijten voor een extra inspanning van 5 mi...
demorgen.be
"But you don’t need to be some sort of game theory maven to appreciate that the small chance of a catastrophic outcome can outweigh the overwhelmingly likely but less than 100 percent chance of a trivial gain." substack.com/home/post/p-...
Nuclear brinkmanship usually works. It’s also incredibly dangerous.
A small chance of a catastrophic outcome isn’t something to shrug off.
substack.com
Grateful to @umisr.bsky.social for highlighting our new AER paper. The big finding: migration doesn't drain the home economy — it builds it up.
Institute for Social Research (ISR) - University of Michigan@umisr.bsky.social · 4mo agoRead more about how International migration drives long-run economic development back home: myumi.ch/n1MkR
"(..) the USA is not the preferred partner of choice, nor are any of the traditional European defense firms—it is the Ukrainians. Let that sink in. Ukraine is now a world leader in one of the most important strategic capabilities all states face."
Phillips OBrien@phillipspobrien.bsky.social · 4mo agoHi All, Just sent out my free weekend update. Three big stories. First, the Russian Spring Offensive is almost two weeks old, and Ukraine remarkably still seems to be gaining territory in places. 2026 looks to be starting much worse for the Russians than 2025. open.substack.com/pub/phillips...
"Europe does not need permission to help Ukraine restore its borders. It needs the will. There is a basic rule that applies to nations as much as to people: pour your energy into the things you can affect," writes Academic director at the University of Amsterdam Andrew Chakhoyan in his op-ed.
War in Iran, war in Ukraine: Europe must act where it counts
"Flying balalaika" or a "death moped with wings" is how Ukrainians refer to the Iranian-Russian Shahed drone. On March first, one of these crude, cheap, but devastatingly effective killing machines st...
kyivindependent.com
One area of unequaled Ukrainian expertise? Shooting down killer drones🔥 This is a skill Ukrainian warriors wish they never had to learn — but mastered it anyway — because they had to. You can help them work their magic here: u24.gov.ua/sky-defense?...
@ahlfeldt.bsky.social, Nathaniel Baum-Snow, & Remi Jedwab analyse over 11,000 urban agglomerations to show that vertical growth of cities enhances land efficiency, reduces commuting, and boosts worker welfare. cepr.org/voxeu/column... #EconSky
New RFBerlin Discussion Paper! Fenella Carpena & Simon Galle study how technical change affects workers across occupations. The mechanisms behind adjustment matter. 🔗 www.rfberlin.com/wp-content/u...
We need help to open the Strait that is already open to help protect it from the enemy we actually already defeated 100%
6/ If Trump paid any attention to the Ukraine War he would have noticed how warfare has changed. But he didn’t. And he blundered. Worse, the Gulf states are running out of interceptors to stop Iranian missiles and drones - meaning that soon more oil sites will be vulnerable.
There's been a bit of fuss recently about technology, trade & migration shocks. Well, I'm looking forward to teaching a short PhD course on how these shocks affect labor market inequality. 📍 May 18–22, 2026 at BI (Oslo) ⏱️ Format: 18 hours Syllabus: www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/95d63... 1/3
dropbox.com
Europe should do both: integrate more where feasible (India, Mercosur, Trans-Pacific,...), while simultaneously preparing to strike back hard against malevolent actors. No need for panic, but neither for naivety.
David Henig@davidheniguk.bsky.social · 5mo agoIncreasing divide into two European views on trade - one - to weaponise, protect, retaliate - alternative - to remain open, focus on strengths, don't panic. Obviously I'm in the second. But I also feel that's where political reality is - don't think the first can work. www.ft.com/content/b92f...
Meanwhile destroying any lingering hope of maintaining a solid Western alliance.
Bloomberg News@bloomberg.com · 7mo agoIn his mission to acquire Greenland, Donald Trump deployed his trademark bargaining strategy: Take the maximalist position — in this case the barely veiled threat of using military force — then dial back
One option is retaliation. Another option is to ignore this bluff/BS and send as many exports as possible through non-tariffed EU/EEA members. (Sorry, Brexiteers.) Clearly, Dear Leader spent more time writing this post than thinking through the policy implications.
Justin Wolfers@justinwolfers.bsky.social · 7mo agoNew tariff just dropped. Americans set to pay an additional 10% tax on all goods from Germany, the UK, France, the Netherlands, Sweden, Norway, Denmark, and Finland. It starts in two weeks, rising to 25% by June. (Aside: A trade war with one EU country is a trade war with the entire EU).
A related view: paulkrugman.substack.com/p/the-stupid...
The Stupidest Trump Move So Far
Just kill me now. Or tariff me. Whatever.
paulkrugman.substack.com
Simon Galle@simongalle.bsky.social · 7mo agoEuropean tripwire forces make a military land grab of Greenland drastically more costly to the Trump admin: Harming European forces will force Europe to strongly retaliate economically and destroy any defense cooperation. In turn, this may trigger a backlash both in Congress and in the US military
The French Army just announced that it will be part of the military force that goes to Greenland Germany is also part of it, on top of Sweden If the US invades Greenland, it means that two NATO nuclear powers will be fighting against each other
La France va participer à une mission militaire européenne au Groenland
L'Allemagne aussi doit participer à cette mission, dont l'objectif est de soutenir le territoire menacé d'annexion par les Etats-Unis de Donald Trump.
franceinfo.fr
What is currently happening is an escalation management plan The goal is to deter the United States from attacking, in the same way that stationing troops in the eastern flank of NATO is aimed at deterring Russia Europe and Canada forces are not amassing troops to repel an US invasion
Nicholas Grossman@nicholasgrossman.bsky.social · 7mo agoThis. Greenland defense is a tripwire—putting various European countries’ personnel in harms way in an attempt to deter attack—not an effort to win a war with the US. A real Europe-US war would destroy the world. The goal is to not have one. Which was more than accomplished by a robust NATO. Alas.
European tripwire forces make a military land grab of Greenland drastically more costly to the Trump admin: Harming European forces will force Europe to strongly retaliate economically and destroy any defense cooperation. In turn, this may trigger a backlash both in Congress and in the US military
Nicholas Grossman@nicholasgrossman.bsky.social · 7mo agoThis. Greenland defense is a tripwire—putting various European countries’ personnel in harms way in an attempt to deter attack—not an effort to win a war with the US. A real Europe-US war would destroy the world. The goal is to not have one. Which was more than accomplished by a robust NATO. Alas.
Some people in the Trump administration may benefit from a clear visualization of what "Nothing" means.
Anne Applebaum@anneapplebaum.wsocial.eu · 7mo ago"American dominance" is our new foreign policy. And it will create a counter-reaction, everywhere. www.theatlantic.com/ideas/2026/0...
Today is one of those days when I should have taken my own advice. Flooded with rage tweets on the other platform. Garbage way to communicate that only brings out the worst in people. All dunks, no conversation. Complete waste of time trying to engage there www.gelliottmorris.com/p/you-should...
You should quit social media for good
Platforms optimized for engagement warp our politics, erode attention, and harm our wellbeing. Here’s how I minimize time on the (anti‑)social web.
gelliottmorris.com
