Clare Griffiths

@statsgeekclare.bsky.social

Demographer, former tweeting statistician and female data lad. Attempting to make a difference in public health analysis at DHSC. I ran the UK's covid dashboard. Now seen running parkruns. DMs not available. She/her 🍉🏳️‍⚧️🏳️‍🌈

If you MUST message me about a national emergency DON’T SAY I “should not undertake any activity that could start a fire” SAY “do not do anything that could start a fire” You’re not drafting legislation, you’re talking to people many of whom have a reading age of 6.

gov.uk

These students were in years 7 and 8 during peak Covid. Contrary to current narrative, schools didn’t easily pivot to online learning across the board and surprise surprise the impacts of that are coming out strongly in widening inequality in results now.

TASO@taso.org.uk · 4d ago

New blog post: Our CEO, @omaromalleykhan.bsky.social, reflects on this year’s A-level results day, noting the stubbornly persistent gaps in participation rates, whether measured by disadvantage or by region. Read: taso.org.uk/news-blog/a-...

Crofton Park (Lewisham) Council By-Election Result: 🌍 GRN: 44.9% (-7.5) 🌹 LAB: 44.5% (+13.9) ➡️ RFM: 4.3% (-0.8) 🔶 LDM: 3.5% (-2.9) 🌳 CON: 2.4% (-3.1) 🙋 Ind: 0.3% (New) Green HOLD. Changes w/ 2026.

🚨 | The Combined Authorities (Mayoral Elections) Order 2026 has passed through Parliament. This means the Supplementary Vote system has returned for Combined Authority Mayoral Elections, and would apply should a Mayoral By-Election be triggered in Greater Manchester.

Hivemind! I am looking for a pub in Leeds that will be showing the England match on 23 June and won't be too busy... is this is even vaguely likely to be possible? And if so any recommendations as to where this holy grail may lie?

Interesting maybe.... But correlation does not equal causation, and as with a lot of these things, I'm left with wondering why, seeing as this is about humans, with the power of speech, yet again we have a man not just asking women (and men: they're involved!) why they haven't had children.

Hetan Shah@hetanshah.bsky.social · 3mo ago

Interesting long read from @jburnmurdoch.ft.com making the case that declining birth rates are particularly tied up with the rise of smartphones and therefore fewer people in relationships, which in turn leads to fewer kids www.ft.com/content/fba3...

Could digital media be affecting birth rates?
% change in total fertility rate relative to pre-smartphone trend, by years before/since smartphones*

When I rule the world, men will no longer be allowed to explain birth rates and fertility with charts. Honestly, lads, if you want to know why women are having fewer babies, do some qualitative research. Ask some women and find out.

If your name wasn't near the front of alphabet you had less chance of being elected yesterday. 📊 For wards with 3 candidates standing per party, we can compare alphabetical name ordering with vote ordering by party If no name bias we'd expect all squares to have the same number of candidates. But…

A set of 6 'bias matrices' arranged in two rows of 3. Each matrix comprises a 3 by 3 grid along 2 axes: Horizontal, rank of votes received within party (1st, 2nd, 3rd); vertical, alphabetical rank of candidate name within the party they are standing for (1st corresponding to names near the top of the alphabet, 3rd near the bottom of the alphabet).

The 6 matrices show respecictively:

Top-left (greys) - counts for all parties with 3 candidates submitted;
Top-centre (blues) - counts of Conservative candidates where 3 Conservative candidates were standing.
Top-right (reds) - counts of Labour candidates where 3 Labour candidates were standing.
Bottom-left (greens) - counts of Green Party candidates where 3 Green candidates were standing.
Bottom-centre (cyans) - counts of Reform UK candidates where 3 Reform candidates were standing.
Bottom-right (oranges) - counts of Conservative candidates where 3 Conservative candidates were standing.

All grids show a strong name bias with higher numbers of candidates both first in terms of party votes and first alphabetically; higher numbers of candidates 2nd and 2nd; 3rd and 3rd.

The effect is strongest for Labour and the Greens and weakest (but still dominant) for the LibDems and Reform.

Local election results are trickling in and we're already seeing the chaotic effects of First Past the Post. In Wandsworth, the Tories are the biggest party and are one seat away from a majority on just 31% of the vote. Meanwhile, Labour got 34% of the vote - and fewer seats.