@strkrnr.bsky.social

Streakrunner “Look again at that dot. That’s here. That’s home. That’s us. On it everyone you love, everyone you know, everyone you ever heard of, every human being who ever was, lived out their lives.”

Beach holidays in the climate crisis, France. As an old viral quote said: “Climate change will manifest as a series of disasters viewed through phones with footage that gets closer and closer to where you live until you’re the one filming it.”

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Wednesday El Niño update - Sea surface temperature anomalies continue to steadily rise in the key Niño 3.4 monitoring area, which also remain at record high levels for this time of year. Over the last week, there has been a general warming across the central Pacific. Data from NOAA OISSTv2.1. 🌊

Line graph time series of daily sea surface temperature anomalies in the Nino3.4 region. Years are shown from 1982 to 2025 in shades of blue to light yellow, and 2026 is shown in red. Climatologically, the largest anomalies are during the boreal winter in terms of magnitude. Data is from OISSTv2.1. 
Map of July 21, 2026 average sea surface temperature anomalies in the ENSO monitoring regions. Data is from NOAA OISSTv2.1 with anomalies relative to a 1991-2020 baseline.Graphic showing the 1-week change in sea surface temperature anomalies across the tropical eastern Pacific Ocean. Data is from NOAA OISSTv2.1

As of July 19th update, the Nino 3.4 sea-surface temperature is now more than 3.7 standard deviations above the 1991-2020 mean. With the warming just getting started, this El Nino is still in charted territory, but just barely.

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James Lovelock is one of the greatest climate scientists that ever lived. We're about find out how on point his statements from over 18 years ago were.

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Every single regulatory grade monitor in the Chicago area is recording over 400 µg/m³ of PM2.5 smoke pollution. This is so far beyond anything in the historical record it’s difficult to communicate how extreme this event really is

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Wednesday El Niño update - Sea surface temperature anomalies have jumped a bit in the last few days in the important Niño region 3.4 (record high). The warm pool is also extending pretty far east already! Conditions look favorable for more strengthening in the near-term. Data from NOAA OISSTv2.1. 🌊

Line graph time series of daily sea surface temperature anomalies in the Nino3.4 region. Years are shown from 1982 to 2025 in shades of blue to light yellow, and 2026 is shown in red. Climatologically, the largest anomalies are during the boreal winter in terms of magnitude. Data is from OISSTv2.1. Map of July 7, 2026 average sea surface temperature anomalies in the ENSO monitoring regions. Data is from NOAA OISSTv2.1 with anomalies relative to a 1991-2020 baseline.Graphic showing the 1-week change in sea surface temperature anomalies across the tropical eastern Pacific Ocean. Data is from NOAA OISSTv2.1

"This repetitive pattern could nudge El Niño's peak intensity toward the higher-end scenarios." Ben Noll That's the higher-end of these already record high scenarios.. El Niño peaking at 4.5°C above the 1991-2020 average would be diabolical, to use the scientific term.

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July ECMWF runs are in and forecast an even more extreme El Niño event than the prior June runs. ENSO3.4 region temperatures reach 3.9C in December, and forecasts are around 0.3C warmer than they were in June.

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Breaking News! Code Yikes! The June Nino 3.4 sea-surface temperature anomaly came in at 1.59°C above the 1991-2020 baseline, so we're already in a strong El Nino. The latest CFSv2 model runs now show the Nino 3.4 SST anomaly forecast peaking at 4.10°C in November.

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Ich habe meine Frau durch Dooring kennengelernt. An einem wunderschönen Nachmittag kam ich auf meinem Liegerad angeschossen, sie öffnete die Tür ihres Porsche Cayenne. Abgelenkt, weil sie am Handy mit ihrem damaligen Ehemann stritt. Ich brach mir siebzehn Knochen, darunter den Kiefer. Sie fütterte

The model spread for this year's El Niño forecasts remains insane. 11 of the 13 models expect a very strong (aka "super") El Niño. (rONI > 2 °C) 7 of 13 expect the strongest El Niño in modern history.

Chart showing 13 El NIno model forecasts and the ten strongest historical El Niño events, all expressed in terms of the relative oceanic niňo index (rONI).

■□□□□□□□□□ □□□□□□□□□□ □□□□□□□□□□ □□□□□□□□□□ □□□□□□□□□□ □□□□□□□□□□ □□□□□□□□□□ □□□□□□□□□□ □□□□□□□□□□ □□□□□□□□□□ □□□□ Jetzt nur noch 103 Spiele, dann ist der alberne Mist vorbei.

Alles was die aktuelle Regierung aus #CDU, #CSU und #SPD bisher politisch umgesetzt hat, hat Menschenrechte aktiv abgebaut,soziale Ungerechtigkeit aktiv verschärft,Rassismus aktiv befördert,Klimaschutz aktiv verhindert, Armutsbetroffene aktiv diskriminiert und vor allem: Reiche sehr aktiv verschont!

History of El Niño and La Niña events since 1850 by applying the Relative Oceanic Niño Index to Berkeley Earth data. The strongest El Niños on this index are 1982/83, 1997/98, 2015/16 and 1877/78. Forecasts suggest an El Niño at the end of 2026 could challenge the record.

Time series chart of the Relative Oceanic Nino Index (rONI) applied to Berkeley Earth Data since 1850.  A 3-month moving averages is plotted as well as a 95% uncertainty range.  El Niño events have rONI > 0.5 C, and La Niña have rONI < -0.5 C.

The latest CFSv2 model results for El Nino (ONI) anomalies later this year are kinda nuts, with a peak at nearly 3.9C in November. NOAA needs to once again raise the y-axis range; here is what it should look like without all the runs above 4C cut off:

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AfD-Bundesvorstand Gottschalk holt sich Rat bei Trumps ehem. ICE-Kommandant Gregory Bovino: „Could we do the same in Germany?“ „Absoluteley…I‘m a phone call away“ „Maybe I can invite you to the Bundestag and you give us some ideas for Germany“ „The Germans are very good in this“

Als Paartherapeut sage ich häufig: „In zehn intensiven Sitzungen habe ich Sie beide als extrem unangenehm erlebt. Eine Trennung halte ich allerdings genau deshalb für die falsche Lösung – sollten Sie neue Partner finden, besteht die Gefahr, dass Sie weitere unbeteiligte Menschen unglücklich machen.“

As each new model run comes in, it seems more possible that we are witnessing history. The latest NMME (North American Multi-model Ensemble) forecasts the strongest El Niño on record, with the white shading +3°C or higher (+5.4F) anomalies covering an immense section of the Central-East Pacific. 1/

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Meeresbiologen: Der Wal muss angeschoben werden. AfD: Abgeschoben werden muss er. CDU: Der Wal soll erstmal Leistung zeigen. Lars Klingbeil: Was Merz sagt. Wolfram Weimer: Der Wal ist ein Symbol aktivistischer Umweltbewegungen, das darf nicht gefördert werden. Kai Wegner: Egal, ich muss zum Tennis.